Thoughts on the new coronavirus?

softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
Some folks had the fortuitous insight to study the impact just three months ago. They predicted 65 million victims. I predict they will be off by at least 50 million - give or take. 

We already have some self styled experts on this virus. Don't we always? I'm not too worried just yet - we seem to get a huge virus threat every year or two now. The ebola one had me going. After all I watched "Outbreak" in 1995 with an MD. He told me that it could really happen. Especially with all the air travel we have now. 

Anybody worried? Seems off grid could be fortuitous in a viral outbreak. Though most of us still have to report to work. 

Interesting that I got "permanently banned" for mentioning it at r/TheOrville at reddit. I think it had more to do with intolerance to more traditional viewpoints. 
First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
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Comments

  • mike95490mike95490 Solar Expert Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you have to go to a grocery store and deal with a checker, you are infected !


    Powerfab top of pole PV mount | Listeroid 6/1 w/st5 gen head | XW6048 inverter/chgr | Iota 48V/15A charger | Morningstar 60A MPPT | 48V, 800A NiFe Battery (in series)| 15, Evergreen 205w "12V" PV array on pole | Midnight ePanel | Grundfos 10 SO5-9 with 3 wire Franklin Electric motor (1/2hp 240V 1ph ) on a timer for 3 hr noontime run - Runs off PV ||
    || Midnight Classic 200 | 10, Evergreen 200w in a 160VOC array ||
    || VEC1093 12V Charger | Maha C401 aa/aaa Charger | SureSine | Sunsaver MPPT 15A

    solar: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Solar
    gen: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Lister ,

  • clockmanfranclockmanfran Registered Users Posts: 78 ✭✭✭
    edited February 2020 #3
    I don't often comment on these type of social post.

    However, In my part of the World, our family have a saying,      "We are all going to die, …. Just not today".


    Take sensible precautions and do your best to stay safe.


     

    Everything is possible, just give me Time.

    The OzInverter man. Normandy France.

    3off Hugh P's 3.7m dia wind turbines, (12 years running).  ... 5kW PV on 3 Trackers, (8 years) .... 9kW PV AC coupled using Used/second hand GTI's, on my OzInverter created Grid, and back charging with the AC Coupling and OzInverter to my 48v 1300ah batteries. 

  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A good precaution also is to not eat Bat meat. The Wuhan area has been on warning for a long time about the "wet" markets where all kinds of meats are sold without refrigeration. There seems to be a desire to eat anything with 4 legs except tables and anything that flies except airplanes.

     I really like Szechuan/Sichuan food but draw the line with exotic meats. You should too ! Another great reason to live remotely offgrid!
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    So far it has a 3% mortality rate which isn't too scary. Each infected person is likely to infect 1.4 people - many things are far more virulent. Plus it is in Wuhan, China - quite a distance from here. The most concerning thing is the two week incubation period. 

    Guessing it is too early to call in the eventual results. China always under reports, there is likely plenty that we do not know. 

    This is of interest: edit - will not load, tried twice

    Wuhan is also the location of a high tech virus lab. There are other things of note going on. With a two week incubation period, it will be awhile before we come to grips with what we are dealing with. Going to be rough for the Wuhan area. Perhaps a lot of China. 

    There are at least four major theories going around. I'm not as worried as I was a few days ago. Eight cases in the US so far. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • bill von novakbill von novak Solar Expert Posts: 891 ✭✭✭✭
    softdown said:
    Anybody worried? 
    Nope.  Low transmissivity, not a large batch of initial cases.  I'd be far more worried about the ordinary flu; so far this year it has killed 10,000 people in the US alone (per the CDC.)  So get that flu shot.
  • unyalliunyalli Solar Expert Posts: 120 ✭✭
    china, a puppet, no different from soros, has shut down economies worldwide with biological terrorism while killing there own people in the process. No honor.
  • mike95490mike95490 Solar Expert Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here's a jolly article.  Social isolation, do it yesterday .



    Powerfab top of pole PV mount | Listeroid 6/1 w/st5 gen head | XW6048 inverter/chgr | Iota 48V/15A charger | Morningstar 60A MPPT | 48V, 800A NiFe Battery (in series)| 15, Evergreen 205w "12V" PV array on pole | Midnight ePanel | Grundfos 10 SO5-9 with 3 wire Franklin Electric motor (1/2hp 240V 1ph ) on a timer for 3 hr noontime run - Runs off PV ||
    || Midnight Classic 200 | 10, Evergreen 200w in a 160VOC array ||
    || VEC1093 12V Charger | Maha C401 aa/aaa Charger | SureSine | Sunsaver MPPT 15A

    solar: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Solar
    gen: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Lister ,

  • clockmanfranclockmanfran Registered Users Posts: 78 ✭✭✭
    Looks like me and my 13 year old have it.  Mrs and other boys stuck in the UK.

    He got it from his school some 12 days ago, he gave it to me.

    Both of us have flu symptoms, weak as kittens can't clench a fist etc, sickness vomiting, coughing, lungs spitting up gunk, and breathing difficulties, and both of us are normally relatively fit and healthy. 

     Real bad for 3 days with me, real bad for 36 hours with the boy.

    I believe allot more folk have it than the governments facts and figures say.
     No one will test us now as we are not important in this backwoods of Europe.

    I stopped my 13 year old getting on the school bus to school this week and just took him out of school. I got angry phone calls from the school.

    We live fairly isolated lives anyway, and have food for 2 weeks, and it takes 26 days for the virus to go from us after infection.

    Did the first Cut of the year, about 2 acres of grass, yesterday on a good old 1970's US Roper 16t sit on mower, that fairly whacked me out with fatigued.




    Everything is possible, just give me Time.

    The OzInverter man. Normandy France.

    3off Hugh P's 3.7m dia wind turbines, (12 years running).  ... 5kW PV on 3 Trackers, (8 years) .... 9kW PV AC coupled using Used/second hand GTI's, on my OzInverter created Grid, and back charging with the AC Coupling and OzInverter to my 48v 1300ah batteries. 

  • BB.BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 31,680 admin
    Clockman,

    Hope you and your son quickly recover. This not a good thing.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Since this is in the weeds..... George Norry had a guest (coast to coast AM) on who talked about the Outbreak being "reported" Dec 26.
    Weeks before Kim Jun Un said he had a Christmas gift for the United States. Most presumed another missile test which did not happen.
    It is probably just a coincidence right....

    If you are sick, it is not a good thing to not get the rest you need to get over this. Get your fluid intake up and wash it out. Good Luck!
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • Marc KurthMarc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 844 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2020 #12
    I seem to recall talk of this virus in early December, but the point is taken! We all forgot about the mysterious "surprise" that was promised.
    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I got that date from Mikes link in post # 8 above. It really does not make sense that he would unleash it in China but that is why this is in the weeds ;)
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • solar_davesolar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭✭
    Being 67 this year with some typical underlying conditions the wife and I have pretty much hunkered down. We hit the 24 grocer @ 3 AM and did our stock up last Tuesday.   Better to be safe than sorry.
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2020 #15
    Theories are growing like the debt. Here is a radical uptake: 

    I've got several self styled experts in my FB community that relentlessly twist my ears. If concerned get some quercetin. If very concerned due to health issues you may want to look at chloroquine. This internist/pulmonary doc is really dedicated to studying this. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    I watch this pretty closely. Stay properly rested and get your Vitamin D via sun exposure. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • mike95490mike95490 Solar Expert Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    starter #2
     follow the links to the punch line:

    At that point, there will functionally be zero hospital beds.
    Either because no one with Kung Flu will be let in, or because there isn’t a hospital. I can tell you right now, we aren’t
    going to turn away heart attacks, strokes, and trauma patients so we can see people with Kung Flu, even if they’re really
    effing sick. I’ve told you, “Don’t get this virus.” This is why. If you have URI symptoms, you’ll be triaged outside to a
    tent, and then transmogrified and transported to some CDC-approved empty warehouse, sports arena, convention center, etc.,
    where you’ll get the best care you can from totally untrained amateurs, retirees brave enough to risk it, and people too
    stupid to turn that work down.
    Think former barristas, people too dumb to pass the TSA civil service exam, and the guys
    too stupid to make it delivering pizzas or spinning signs.
    The number of licensed folks there, like doctors or nurses,
    will be countable on one’s thumbs.


    Powerfab top of pole PV mount | Listeroid 6/1 w/st5 gen head | XW6048 inverter/chgr | Iota 48V/15A charger | Morningstar 60A MPPT | 48V, 800A NiFe Battery (in series)| 15, Evergreen 205w "12V" PV array on pole | Midnight ePanel | Grundfos 10 SO5-9 with 3 wire Franklin Electric motor (1/2hp 240V 1ph ) on a timer for 3 hr noontime run - Runs off PV ||
    || Midnight Classic 200 | 10, Evergreen 200w in a 160VOC array ||
    || VEC1093 12V Charger | Maha C401 aa/aaa Charger | SureSine | Sunsaver MPPT 15A

    solar: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Solar
    gen: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Lister ,

  • mcgivormcgivor Solar Expert Posts: 3,814 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    Everything needs to be put into perspective, hunger alone kills an estimated 9 million people per year, AIDS around 1 million, malaria half a million, this is every year. Granted the Covid19 virus has not claimed all its victims yet, but the question is will it exceed these annual figures before it, itself, dies out? 

    Not attempting to downplay the severity of the latest pandemic,  just attempting to put it into perspective. Often the victims of the aforementioned causes of death go unreported because they are the unfortunate souls living in poverty and therefore not newsworthy
    1500W, 6× Schutten 250W Poly panels , Schneider MPPT 60 150 CC, Schneider SW 2524 inverter, 400Ah LFP 24V nominal battery with Battery Bodyguard BMS 
    Second system 1890W  3 × 300W No name brand poly, 3×330 Sunsolar Poly panels, Morningstar TS 60 PWM controller, no name 2000W inverter 400Ah LFP 24V nominal battery with Daly BMS, used for water pumping and day time air conditioning.  
    5Kw Yanmar clone single cylinder air cooled diesel generator for rare emergency charging and welding.
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    Good question. The mortalities are horrific but pale compared to many others. I am unsure what to think of it at times. They are acting like contacting this means death. Perhaps the authorities know something they are hiding from us? Shutting everything down will simply decimate the economy like nothing we ever imagined. That could mean TEOTWAWKI. Or at least a SHTF. 

    The fact that it is ravaging China and Iran and Italy while steering clear of other countries is - quite interesting.

    We might get a "vaccine" in a couple weeks. The toilet paper syndicate will have almost no sales for years. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My take on Covid19 from a medical family is the virulence of the disease more so than the mortality.
    Covid19 is about 10 times more contagious than the flu.

    CDC is trying to avoid the 1918 spanish flu scenario and they might be able to do it if people will just follow the basic guidelines.

    From my financial adviser, "when the spread of the disease reaches the inflection point in the united states and investors can see the other side of the impact on the economy, he expects the market to improve very substantially.

    My best friend who often told me how he liked the offgrid life except for the remoteness has had a change of heart ;)
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • BB.BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 31,680 admin
    edited March 2020 #21
    There are so many theories on what has/will happen with the COVID-19, just don't know.

    UK is thinking about telling folks >70 to self isolate for 4 months (Got two inlaws, in reasonably good health, that are over 80/90 we are taking care of).

    We have one adult kid that was planning on a dream Euro vacation in less than a week from now--Been trying to convince that this is not a good idea for the past 1+ month (already spent the money, how likely to get any back, etc.). I was saying that the political aspects of this (quarantines, closing of borders, canceling of flights, possibly 2 week quarantine for every country border crossed, and back home, etc.) was going to be at least as bad as the disease... Finally, I am pretty sure will not go now (I hope).

    And there is an interesting theory on why the 1918 flu had such a high death rate--Aspirin (yep, Aspirin). At the time, a new wonder drug that doctors were saying to take like candy (they did not understand that Aspirin was toxic in those doses at the time):

    https://korenwellness.com/blog/1918-flu-killer-flu-killer-aspirin/

    More medical management

    About the 1918 flu, according to Dr. Karen M. Starko (MD), an infectious disease specialist:

    In 1918, the US Surgeon General, the US Navy, and the Journal of the American Medical Association recommended use of aspirin just before the October death spike. If these recommendations were followed, and if pulmonary edema occurred in 3% of persons, a significant proportion of the deaths may be attributable to aspirin.
    Starko KM. Salicylates and pandemic influenza mortality, 1918–1919 pharmacology, pathology, and historic evidence. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 15 November 2009;49(9):1405-1410. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/9/1405/301441

    Death by aspirin

    In another example, researcher Dr. Tsunetoshi Shimazu, in a letter in the British Medical Journal, noted this observation:

    Aspirin may have enhanced the virulence of the flu virus in the 1918 pandemic, which has implications for A/H1N1 flu.
    Letters A/H1N1 flu. Aspirin in the 1918 pandemic. British Medical Journal. 15 June 2009;338:b2398. doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b2398

    In addition to aspirin use, medical treatment consisted of cough syrup to suppress cough. This resulted in an inability to clear the lungs and bronchi.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2020 #22
    If I were you Bill, I would give the kid the money back and tell him not to go, Just me... Spain and Germany are pretty bad also. If I could not go to Italy or Germany it would be the end of the trip for me.

    I also heard that the Spanish Flu may have originated in China. Also the 1918 victims were often found downstairs trying to keep the coal furnace lit.

    Take "2" aspirin and call me in the morning....Crossing my fingers for your kid!  Below from last nights Coast to Coast AM.

    Understanding Coronavirus:

    Phillip K. Peterson, M.D. is professor of medicine emeritus at the University of Minnesota Medical School, where he served as an infectious disease specialist for four decades. In the latter half of Sunday's show, in conversation with George Knapp, he explained the dual role of germs and microbes: that they are critically important for our health, yet emerging pathogens continue to wreak havoc in our bodies. He specifically addressed the coronavirus pandemic, raging around our world. The newly emerged coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of around 140 pathogens discovered in the last 50 years. Peterson noted that much of the recent effort at combating pandemics has been focused on swine and bird flu, rather than a coronavirus like SARS, so we were caught mainly unprepared. Get the full story here.


    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • BB.BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 31,680 admin
    The "Spanish flu" (As I understand) was named because of the free press/open communications in Spain at the time. It really hit France hard, but because of wartime controls, they kept it quiet.

    Whether it originated in France, or in Northern USA (army troops going to France), or elsewhere... Don't know.

    We won't let her starve--But as an adult, she needs to make her own decisions (I am sure she is not going now--But young and healthy--What could happen.... :# ).

    We had booked airfare to Taiwan with her and my wife+I 1.5 months earlier, but we canceled because we did not want to drop into their confusion (and self quarantine back home) at the time. Taiwan apparently has had very good success in limiting the spread (less than 50 total cases at this point?). But that was because of very detailed and specific medical/travel/contact history, plus active quarantine measures (gov assigned cell phone, very heavy penalties for violations, etc.).

    Taiwan, small island, smallish population, more or less uniform culture all helped. But they also have the close family/business ties to the Chinese mainland (source of infection).

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That is good ! Young people need to remember that they can spread the disease and a good time for them to realize that they can help or hurt other people. I know it is hard at that age to think of anyone but yourself, or that you will live forever.

    I heard that it originated in China because alot of Chinese were filling in jobs that those countries had sent the men off to wage war. I am not sure this is true either. It does make sense though, and it will never be known so a moot point.

    At that time our farmers and the EU knew (because of modern medicine) that you do not have fowl anywhere near pigs on a farm. The pig is so much like a human (not saying exactly) that the bird diseases easily can pass to us from the pigs. 

    Thanks for sending the rain east ! Tanks that should have been full 3 months ago are now nearing full. Weird year in many ways.
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • BB.BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 31,680 admin
    The Italian issue--Possibly because workers from China, returning from New Years vacation, returned to mfg. in Italy... Allows "Made in Italy" to be stamped on shoes made with Chinese labor (at least that is what I read).

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2020 #26
    Some also say it started in the trenches. Others in Kansas. Did you know that Elvis may have faked his death? I'm serious. There is a convincing youtube vid explaining everything. I'm serious! I'd have thought you were nuts if you suggested it before yesterday!

    Dare you to really watch this vid and explain that it is impossible. The facial cone structure and hairline of the corpse do not match. I'm not necessarily saying Elvis faked his death but I now consider it - possible. 


    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • Marc KurthMarc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 844 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2020 #27
    Scientific American has an excellent article/interview with a long term Chinese researcher in bat originated/hosted viruses. She pretty much said that she expected something like this because the bat caves are a mixing pot for viral mutations.
    What caught my attention, in particular, was her reaction to the command for her to drop everything and look into the new illnesses. She said that there were sleepless nights until DNA/RNA testing proving no match to some stuff in her labs. She was deathly afraid that something had gotten out.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/
    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    It seems like every expert has their own pet theory at this point in time. I've seen a few dozen I think - that from experts in the field.
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • unyalliunyalli Solar Expert Posts: 120 ✭✭
    how do I unsubscribe to this thread?
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,499 ✭✭✭✭
    Don't read it. It isn't hard. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • unyalliunyalli Solar Expert Posts: 120 ✭✭
    softdown said:
    Don't read it. It isn't hard. 

    Seriously? Its filling my inbox hello?
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