Tariff on Chinese panels........

Estragon · June 2018

I mostly agree. The thing is there's a latent anti-american sentiment lurking in Canada, Mexico, and much of Europe. It's nothing new, it's been there for a long time, but what worries me a bit is what happens if that toothpaste gets out of the tube?

bill von novak · June 2018

Estragon said:

I mostly agree. The thing is there's a latent anti-american sentiment lurking in Canada, Mexico, and much of Europe. It's nothing new, it's been there for a long time, but what worries me a bit is what happens if that toothpaste gets out of the tube?

Then the isolationists have all the ammunition they need to escalate the trade war.

Estragon · June 2018

> @bill von novak said:
> Estragon said:
>
>
> I mostly agree. The thing is there's a latent anti-american sentiment lurking in Canada, Mexico, and much of Europe. It's nothing new, it's been there for a long time, but what worries me a bit is what happens if that toothpaste gets out of the tube?
>
>
>
>
> Then the isolationists have all the ammunition they need to escalate the trade war.

I'm afraid you may be right.

Dave Angelini · June 2018

Free trade is not always fair trade. I think the Dairy tariffs that Canada charges are the reason that Dennis Rodman and the President have decided it will be easier with North Korea

I dislike tariffs immensely and so I am hoping this all fades out by our November election. I think Larry Kudlow will advise that if he does not have another heart attack. The Dairy thing with you folks is pretty bogus but there is always a point no matter what side you are on.

westbranch · June 2018

The news a couple of nights ago had this factoid:

''Wisconsin produces more milk than ALL Canadian producers''... one reason for our supply management policy....

There is a huge imbalance in the economies of scale.

I dislike paying more $$ for a similar product but food security, pardon the pun, trumps all for me...

end of political comment

Estragon · June 2018

I can see both sides of the supply management thing, but the reality is dairy is subject to various forms of protectionism in most countries in the world, including the US (quota system and licence fees in lieu of tarriffs).

The biggest issue for US dairy is dropping domestic demand, with growing demand for substitutes (eg soy or almond milk) along with rising yields. With other world markets unavailable to the US, the entire surplus would wipe out the small Canadian industry.

Regardless of my opinion on the merits of supply management, throwing the dairy industry under the bus is simply not possible politically in Canada. That said, there may be room for a bit of opening, along the lines of CETA opening, if we can get some grown-ups back in the room

BB. · June 2018

The grownups have gotten us here.

The diplomates are not agents of change.

Bill

Photowhit · June 2018

I think we are in a 'biggest kid in the sand box' situation now. If someone knew something about "The Art of the Deal" then they would understand that you don't just tear up agreements with everyone. It will just make everyone feel like they are native Americans...

...and can you really trust someone who continually reneges on deals, Some of which even if you think were bad deals much of the value was gained by the person you made the deal with up front and you just forfeit you advantage over time (Iran Nuke deal, we released hold on their money, then said we don't like the deal, don't worry about those pesky nuclear inspections...)

Estragon · June 2018

"Go out and break things" works great in business, international relations, I'm not so sure. I guess we're going to find out.

bill von novak · June 2018

Dave Angelini said:

Free trade is not always fair trade. I think the Dairy tariffs that Canada charges are the reason that Dennis Rodman and the President have decided it will be easier with North Korea

Yep. Canadians are mad at us for subsidizing dairy farmers here in the US, because then we can out-compete their farmers. So they have a 270% tariff on some dairy products if we ship more than we agreed to in the NAFTA agreement. (If we keep to the limit, no tariff.)

The US is mad at Canada for subsidizing loggers in Canada, because then they can out-compete our less subsidized loggers. (And they have a ton more wood than we do.) So we put a tariff on their wood.

It would be great if both places dropped both their tariffs and their subsidies; trade would improve and everyone would save money. Not going to happen, unfortunately.

Dave Angelini · June 2018

I was talking to Schneider Burnaby yesterday about an electronic field test I am performing. One of the guys said "we probably will put a tariff on US single malt Bourbon and then you will put a tariff on our blended whiskey. I told them I would pay the tariff on blended whiskey just make sure to not interrupt the supply

mcgivor · June 2018

Either way it would probably be more expensive in Canada despite originating in Canada.

mcgivor · June 2018

The fundemental problem with free trade agreements is that all partners should be on a level playing field, by this I mean the social systems, regarding health care, unemployment insurance, social welfare and taxation should be identical, without parity the free trade is nothing more than a convince for the richer nation to take advantage of the poorer. The EU was initially founded on these principles, but later compromised to include lesser members with disastrous results. In the case of NAFTA, Canada is the smallest player, population wise, but not the poorest, the US economy is 10× the size of Canada and Canada should have realized thet sleeping with someone 10× your size could result in the partner rolling over and squashing you.

Dave Angelini · June 2018

Kind of like one big world with the United Nations in charge. No border, just come and go. Might as well take away the people's money who have too much and give it to the ones who do not like working. History should not be taught about how some countries gave their most precious resource for freedom of others.

I don't think that will sell in Canada and I know it won't here!

westbranch · June 2018

And the Elephant really squealed when the tables were turned in the 1980's when the ongoing dispute, from the 1820's,https://lop.parl.ca/content/lop/ResearchPublications/tips/tip134-e.htm, boiled up again.

The main issue stems from the difference of land ownership in each jurisdiction, Canada is primarily owned by the Crown ( Government) while the US is mainly private, with the dregs left to Government in the form of Parks, and other reserves.

When you have marked disparities in the supply of one commodity you will have price differences. Cases in point are Wisconsin and Milk. Vs BC and a few other Provinces and Softwood Lumber. The Crown owns so much timbered land that has not been cut once and the Timber tenures we issue require a minimum and max. volume that is to be harvested yearly, that its value ,here, is much lower than found in the states, where a private land owner usually waits for a rise in price before putting his timber on the market. BTW, some of the largest timbered land holdings on both sides of the border are held by PENSION Plans! and you know what their main objective is...

I have lost track of the total number of US litigation moves happened in my 32+ years as a Registered Forester and after I retired. Too many to count....

Here are some more links for those interested

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/softwood-lumber-trade-with-the-u-s/2006-sofwood-lumber-agreement/key-elements

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/softwood-lumber-trade-with-the-u-s

Edit (1 week)ADD: from Sept. 2005,

BOLD added

Canada is in the midst of refuting a fourth round of U.S. subsidy allegations and CVD action. Details on this fourth round, up to mid-2004, are found in The Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute (TIPS-98E). Developments since that time are presented in the relevant section of the chronology below. The results in the first three rounds, all of which favoured Canada, are perhaps the most telling counter-arguments to the U.S. claims of subsidized stumpage fees in Canada.

Also later disputes were also found to favour Canada...

softdown · June 2018

Trade wars seem to be heating up. Get ready for higher prices...

Everybody has been feeding from Uncle Sams troughs. Something had to be done but I suspect it is far too late. Plus the nefarious history of tariffs.

I don't see Canada and Germany as the problem though. Most everything I pick up seems to say Made In China. We can compete with Canada and Germany.

Estragon · June 2018

Interesting how words matter. "Feeding at Uncle Sams troughs". By definition, an overall trade deficit means the world sends more goods and services to the US than the US sends in return.

It can be a problem (especially if the deficit is in consumption goods), or not (if the deficit is in capital goods or otherwise of longer-term benefit).

There are also lots of problems with how the deficit is defined and measured. A significant example is defense, in which the US "exports" far more "defense services" than it "imports".

The US could eliminate the foreign "feeding at the trough" trade deficit tomorrow if it wanted. Simply capture US foreign defense spending as the export it is.

Dave Angelini · June 2018

Call it an export and then cut drastically the money we spend defending the scoundrels of the world. This sounds good to my libertarian side.

Estragon · June 2018

Mine too

Not likely to happen though.

Tariff on Chinese panels........

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