Well, if you want lithium...

China now holds half the developed lithium supplies in the world. Sooner or later, more folk will want lithium at less than $10.00 per amp hour. Wonder how it'll shake out?

Comments

  • AmpsterAmpster Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭✭
    edited January 15 #2
    Interesting article. I was also surprised to see that Lithium batteries have the same market share as Lead Acid batteries. You wouldn't know that from reading forums like this. 
  • westbranchwestbranch Solar Expert Posts: 5,135 ✭✭✭✭
    Hmmmm, have to look at the dates of the data, some of the graphs stop mid 2016 or start of 2017  making it seem that the curve / line will continue on its current  line slope.. 
    Also I  recently read an  on-line article  about the Democratic Republic of Congo and if they could get things together they could seriously disrupt the  Li market, as well as other metals, but too much graft and payoffs to get producing...
     
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  • AmpsterAmpster Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭✭
    The article is from May 2018.
    I think the Congo controls a lot of Cobalt which is also an important ingredient in Lithium batteries. I would not be surprised if China has not already tied up that source. China has a big investment in much of Africa.
  • mcgivormcgivor Solar Expert Posts: 2,759 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ampster said:
    Interesting article. I was also surprised to see that Lithium batteries have the same market share as Lead Acid batteries. You wouldn't know that from reading forums like this. 

    Since LFP has been in use off grid  for over a decade elsewhere, I wonder if the debate will still be going on in another ten years here. By that time there will be some new nano depleted uranium technology battery, or whatever, available which wI'll be .pondered whilst still using an ancient technology, lead acid, The King is dead, long live the King. Lead acid is on its way out, just like dinosaurs,  it's called evolution or progress.
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  • OldManOldMan Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭✭
    Ampster said:
    The article is from May 2018.
    I think the Congo controls a lot of Cobalt which is also an important ingredient in Lithium batteries. I would not be surprised if China has not already tied up that source. China has a big investment in much of Africa.
    I think China also has its own cobalt deposits.
  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 3,490 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are lots of cobalt deposits around.  It was mostly considered a waste by-product of mining other stuff though, as their wasn't much of a market for it at prices that didn't involve slave labour.  If prices rise in a sustained way, many of these deposits are likely get into production fairly quickly.

    The "market share" thing strikes me as apples and oranges.  LA is mainly low value utility type use (eg car starting batteries), vs lithium in high value (eg phone/laptop batteries) applications.  My 9yr old car battery is still doing ok.  Phones and laptops tend to be replaced every 2-3 yrs, and a new battery goes with it.  A new OEM laptop battery ran ~2x the car battery cost last time I checked.  EV batteries look to be ~5yr replacement depending on climate etc at many times the start battery cost.  A better compare might be mwh sold, rather than $ value.
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  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭✭
    Cobalt is a pretty expensive mineral. Currently selling for $39,000/ton. That is ~50% more than molybdenum which is also a pretty expensive metal. Molybdenum is used in high end mountaineering equipment among other applications like armor that resists large shells. 
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  • OldManOldMan Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭✭
    softdown said:
    Cobalt is a pretty expensive mineral. Currently selling for $39,000/ton. That is ~50% more than molybdenum which is also a pretty expensive metal. Molybdenum is used in high end mountaineering equipment among other applications like armor that resists large shells. 
    You just don't like lithium batteries.
  • AmpsterAmpster Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭✭
    edited February 11 #10
    Estragon said:
    ..............
    The "market share" thing strikes me as apples and oranges.  LA is mainly low value utility type use (eg car starting batteries), vs lithium in high value (eg phone/laptop batteries) applications.  My 9yr old car battery is still doing ok.  Phones and laptops tend to be replaced every 2-3 yrs, and a new battery goes with it.  A new OEM laptop battery ran ~2x the car battery cost last time I checked.  EV batteries look to be ~5yr replacement depending on climate etc at many times the start battery cost.  A better compare might be mwh sold, rather than $ value.
    I too would be interested in a comparison of mWhrs sold between Lithium and Lead Acid especially over time. The adoption of EVs and the implementation of Lithium battery storage has to be rapidly increasing. Whereas, I would expect Lead acid sales to be somewhat stagnant.  
    Both are energy storage devices just like Apple's and oranges are food sources that could be measured in calories. We don't often compare apples and oranges based on calories because personal taste has so much to to with our choice of one versus the other. In some respects the same is probably true about some users choice of Lithium versus Lead Acid.
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