What happens to our solar if the poles flip?

Dave Angelini

After Katrina, the Mormons were there a week before FEMA helping everyone they could.

 I do not thing if this was widespread, they would do this. At least that is what was implied from their leader.

Bibles, guns, beans and bullets. They also have a pasta machine plant out in the desert that will fill 20 Semi trucks a day.

 If I get some spare time I think I might start going to see the Latter Day Saints a bit.

mcgivor

Humans are by nature reactionary, or so it seems, an earthquake occurs, all of a sudden we need to prepare for the next one, with earthquake kits, consisting  of emergency water, food a flashlight, an ax, a radio, candels and so forth... a couple of years later  the best before date of the food, water and whatever has passed, the ax is at someone's home, the batteries in the flashlight are dead, as is the radio. Until the next tremor we will anxiously await the next survival kit, which in all likelihood end up as did the first.  This has been first hand observation, in fact the "Kit" where I worked, ended up as a door stop, minus the ax.

Dave Angelini

Earthquakes are really not the subject here in my opinion. They are survivable for most all of a Nation. Same with a tsunami. Not really a widespread event. Bad if it is you but not bad for most. That was the premise of Lights Out.

A Nation overwhelmed by disaster that could have been  planned for, and for not too much money. We just added 400 Bills to the debt and Nada!

Did you read it or listen to it Softdown?

oil pan 4

The only consistency I have found in the government is stupidity and incompetence at all ranks, all levels and in all departments.

littleharbor2

And

oil pan 4 said:

The only consistency I have found in the government is stupidity and incompetence at all ranks, all levels and in all departments.

 And usually these clueless people are getting overpaid, stupidity, or not.

Raj174

Yep, check it out

https://www.openthebooks.com/map/?Map=5874&MapType=Pin

Dave Angelini

At least the Feds are sharing and playing nice   Thanks I think...

BB.

Government agencies are geared to surviving as an agency + employment.

It gets to the point where the local government power agency hid (stolen, making federal government look bad?) supplies for rebuilding Puerto Rico (with their armed guards) to only have another government agency take over the facility with their armed agents.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/10/puerto-rico-electricity-prepa-hurricane-maria/

The people are just collateral damage.

Bill

softdown

Dave Angelini said:

Earthquakes are really not the subject here in my opinion. They are survivable for most all of a Nation. Same with a tsunami. Not really a widespread event. Bad if it is you but not bad for most. That was the premise of Lights Out.

A Nation overwhelmed by disaster that could have been  planned for, and for not too much money. We just added 400 Bills to the debt and Nada!

Did you read it or listen to it Softdown?

Perhaps I should but have failed to do so. I consider my prepper antennae to already be "overly sensitive" by normal standards. I consider the threat of nukes/EMP/solar flare to be quite significant. I am not convinced that the best strategy is to "ride it out" locally. Nothing can prepare me for a major hit that is too close or too powerful. So much is out of my control. Do we want to survive a scenario with a 95% fatality rate.....that only leaves preppers alive? My own experience with preppers has not been glorious though I attribute much of that to government spooks haunting prepper discussions and doing what they tend to do....lying and bullying and twisting and trapping and baiting. 

Living on a sailboat had prohibitive difficulties for me. I have spent considerable time evaluating safer locations such as Chile and Iceland. What keeps me here? I am almost 60 and more comfortable than many. Not gifted in foreign languages or blending in. Americans are not the problem, our government may be another story.

Having rambled on.....if someone comes up with an affordable way to provide EMP security to my solar equipment, I would be quite interested. Right now I am focused on replacing the roofs that Hurricane Irma removed from my rentals. Took 4 months for an estimate and they want twice the normal rate. Preparing to do it myself. My grandfather was a roofer and I am very good at it. 

Raj174

Dave Angelini said:

At least the Feds are sharing and playing nice   Thanks I think...

Not really

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/20-billion-hidden-swamp-feds-redact-255000-salaries

Estragon

The article on PREPA hoarding reads largely political, but I suspect the real story is money. People get "sticky fingers" in the aftermath of this sort of disaster.

softdown

Raj174 said:

Dave Angelini said:

At least the Feds are sharing and playing nice   Thanks I think...

Not really

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/20-billion-hidden-swamp-feds-redact-255000-salaries

Over 80% of those redactions are in Homeland Security and the Dept of Justice. I would suspect that the FBI got rolled into HS for redaction purposes. 

Government employment used to pay less than the private sector and was still attractive due to other benefits and security. Now it tends to pay very well. I know a number of government employees. They tend to enjoy items such as 8' doors in their spacious homes, late model Lexus type vehicles, private schools for the kids, and ready access to every private detail, that one could imagine, about every citizen using modern technology. Exceptional arrogance is the adjective that crosses my mind frequently. Interesting times indeed. 

Dave Angelini

Listen to Ted read "Lights Out" if you can. Some books just excel when you can listen. Being read to is such an enjoyable way to absorb certain books. If you have sore running feet, read "Born to run" another fun one to be read about how NIKE causes most foot injuries. A great read about the best runners in the world the Tarahumara indians up/down in the Grand Canyon of Mexico.

softdown, you left out one of the easiest ways we can all be "doomed together".  Much more likely than a Flare or EMP. Much easier and hard to tell who did it. If you read Ted's book you would know.

My Wife and I and the other 4 on this mountain want to be around as long as it is sociable (meaning a happy hour each day)
 
After that, it is has been a good life and we have no desire to pick-off people looking for us with our AR's.
We will do it for a bit and then check-out.

Rick, are you going to make a donation

softdown

Dave Angelini said:

Listen to Ted read "Lights Out" if you can. Some books just excel when you can listen. Being read to is such an enjoyable way to absorb certain books. If you have sore running feet, read "Born to run" another fun one to be read about how NIKE causes most foot injuries. A great read about the best runners in the world the Tarahumara indians up/down in the Grand Canyon of Mexico.

softdown, you left out one of the easiest ways we can all be "doomed together".  Much more likely than a Flare or EMP. Much easier and hard to tell who did it. If you read Ted's book you would know.

My Wife and I and the other 4 on this mountain want to be around as long as it is sociable (meaning a happy hour each day)
 
After that, it is has been a good life and we have no desire to pick-off people looking for us with our AR's.
We will do it for a bit and then check-out.

Rick, are you going to make a donation

Thanks for the nudge I guess. Just bought it. 

Man alive....I already see horrendous megatrends all over the place. 

Perhaps we should do a thread on preparing our arrays for solar flare type threats. I might do it but urgently need to issue a bunch of checks to various government agencies.....which seems to be the purpose of my existence.

BB.

Solar flares should have no effect on a full off grid system.

Solar flares are likely to take out major portions of the grid (and copper wire based communications systems).

And the electrical grid transformers (100's of very large units around the country) are one of the major items that would delay recovery.

Bill

softdown

BB. said:

Solar flares should have no effect on a full off grid system.

Solar flares are likely to take out major portions of the grid (and copper wire based communications systems).

And the electrical grid transformers (100's of very large units around the country) are one of the major items that would delay recovery.

Bill

Well that is a bit of a relief. Truth be told, EMPs worry me more than solar flares ever did. If I had to take out a very highly armed adversary, a preliminary EMP strike would be considered. While telling the truth, our own government concerns me a bit more more than those rascally Ruuskies. I just don't see Russia staging a first strike. Would they retaliate? Of course. 

Technology marches on. There will be more rogue nations with EMP capabilities. It is a good thing that we occupy ourselves earning trust and friendship all over the globe. 

Dave Angelini

As I said in my last post, there is worse to be concerned about than EMP's and Flares.

"softdown, you left out one of the easiest ways we can all be "doomed together".  Much more likely than a Flare or EMP. Much easier, and hard to tell who did it. When you read Ted's book you will know.

Bill I can hear them saying we are scaring the children. Better go back to the Olympics and keep the peace!

BB.

Flares may also be regional in their effects... I think that they tend to be worse at the poles (where the energy can dip down to the earth's crust).

If somebody really hates us, they will use neutron bombs. A few feet of concrete or earth cover can reduce the effects...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_bomb

The pulse of neutron radiation would cause immediate and permanent incapacitation to unprotected outdoor humans in the open out to 900 meters,[9] with death occurring in one or two days. The median lethal dose (LD50) of 600 rads would extend to between 1350 and 1400 meters for those unprotected and outdoors,[46] where approximately half of those exposed would die of radiation sickness after several weeks.

A human residing within, or simply shielded by, at least one concrete building with walls and ceilings 30 cm (12 in) thick, or alternatively of damp soil 24 inches thick, would receive a neutron radiation exposure reduced by a factor of 10.[49][50] Even near ground zero, basement sheltering or buildings with similar radiation shielding characteristics would drastically reduce the radiation dose.[4]

Furthermore, the neutron absorption spectrum of air is disputed by some authorities, and depends in part on absorption by hydrogen from water vapor. Thus, absorption might vary exponentially with humidity, making neutron bombs far more deadly in desert climates than in humid ones.[46]

But you would really have to tick somebody off really badly for them to blanket your homestead with a couple of (small radius effects) Neutron Warheads (that old tank/armored vehicle collection that your neighbor has...?).

http://www.nmaw.org/experience/military-vehicle-collection/

-Bill

softdown

Dave Angelini said:

As I said in my last post, there is worse to be concerned about than EMP's and Flares.

"softdown, you left out one of the easiest ways we can all be "doomed together".  Much more likely than a Flare or EMP. Much easier, and hard to tell who did it. When you read Ted's book you will know.

Bill I can hear them saying we are scaring the children. Better go back to the Olympics and keep the peace!

Biochem/virus then? I have a relative who is one of the top experts in those fields. Which would do me no good whatsoever. Cities, in any event, is not where one would want to be. I don't know whether to snicker or feel sorry, being facetious of course, for the inner city apartment dweller who decides to become a serious prepper. 

softdown

BB. said:

Flares may also be regional in their effects... I think that they tend to be worse at the poles (where the energy can dip down to the earth's crust).

If somebody really hates us, they will use neutron bombs. A few feet of concrete or earth cover can reduce the effects...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_bomb

The pulse of neutron radiation would cause immediate and permanent incapacitation to unprotected outdoor humans in the open out to 900 meters,[9] with death occurring in one or two days. The median lethal dose (LD50) of 600 rads would extend to between 1350 and 1400 meters for those unprotected and outdoors,[46] where approximately half of those exposed would die of radiation sickness after several weeks.

A human residing within, or simply shielded by, at least one concrete building with walls and ceilings 30 cm (12 in) thick, or alternatively of damp soil 24 inches thick, would receive a neutron radiation exposure reduced by a factor of 10.[49][50] Even near ground zero, basement sheltering or buildings with similar radiation shielding characteristics would drastically reduce the radiation dose.[4]

Furthermore, the neutron absorption spectrum of air is disputed by some authorities, and depends in part on absorption by hydrogen from water vapor. Thus, absorption might vary exponentially with humidity, making neutron bombs far more deadly in desert climates than in humid ones.[46]

But you would really have to tick somebody off really badly for them to blanket your homestead with a couple of (small radius effects) Neutron Warheads (that old tank/armored vehicle collection that your neighbor has...?).

http://www.nmaw.org/experience/military-vehicle-collection/

-Bill

I am no expert but my understanding is that a colossal EMP strike would be more likely to be the go to weapon of a highly developed military power. Taking out the power grid and electronic records would pretty much destroy a highly developed civilization. 

We may seem to be venturing into an area where it is difficult to differentiate fact from folklore. I would bet that a dozen experts would proffer a dozen opinions. 

Dave Angelini

Keep guessing guys! You will laugh when you see how easy it would be to cause mass KAOS without any neutrons or Bio.
You know the answer but...  Ted goes into all the details and it really is the main threat in "lights out"
Monday!   Looks like the Markets are calming a bit!

Estragon

Possible or conceivable, but likely not "easy". There's no such thing as a completely secure computer, but if it was easy, it would likely have happened by now. No shortage of well-resourced whack jobs in the world who have no doubt tried.

westbranch

BB. said:

It gets to the point where the local government power agency hid (stolen, making federal government look bad?) supplies for rebuilding Puerto Rico (with their armed guards) to only have another government agency take overt the facility with their armed agents.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/10/puerto-rico-electricity-prepa-hurricane-maria/

The people are just collateral damage.

Bill

that  is disgraceful....  Sentence them to GITMO and lose the keys...

Dave Angelini

Estragon said:

Possible or conceivable, but likely not "easy". There's no such thing as a completely secure computer, but if it was easy, it would likely have happened by now. No shortage of well-resourced whack jobs in the world who have no doubt tried.

You got it!  A  well coordinated cyber attack can do the same thing as as an EMP or Flare and very hard to trace the perpetrators. Some say that the Malware is already in some of the powerplants lying in wait. China and Russia could do this if they wanted. We probably taught them how

The part about it being easy, I am not going to go into the details in the book because it is even worse than I want to go into. It basically does the job of the EMP by burning of the Key transformers that are so hard to replace. This snowballs into a very very bad situation.

There is a very nice way to prevent this also in the book.

Dave Angelini

New DOE office to focus on cybersecurity, grid threats

AUTHOR

Robert Walton@TeamWetDog

• 
  

Dive Brief:

• The Trump administration is establishing a new office within the Department of Energy to focus on cybersecurity, energy security and emergency responses funded through $96 million in the White House's 2019 budget request.
• The new Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) will be headed by an Assistant Secretary who will focus on energy infrastructure security.
• The announcement drew a thumbs up from the investor-owned utility trade group, the Edison Electric Institute, which predicted the new office will play an "essential role in coordinating government and industry efforts." 

Story continues below

Dive Insight:

There's been no successful cyberattack on the United States' utility sector thus far, but experts say responding to those threats requires close coordination between the federal government and the power sector.

Secretary of Energy Rick Perry announced the new office today, highlighting the DOE's "vital role in protecting our nation’s energy infrastructure from cyber threats, physical attack and natural disaster. .... This new office best positions the Department to address the emerging threats of tomorrow."

DOE's announcement said the new office will elevate its focus on energy infrastructure protection and will "enable more coordinated preparedness and response to natural and man-made threats."

That coordination is a key aspect of a biennial simulated attack called GridEx, run by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. The multi-day event is focused on creating stronger connections between emergency officials and the utility sector.

EEI President Tom Kuhn hailed the DOE's announcement, saying protection of the electric grid "is the top priority for America's electric companies and is a responsibility shared by both the electric power industry and the government."

A report from Accenture last year found almost two-thirds of utility executives globally believe their country faces at least a moderate risk of a cyberattack on the electric grid in the next five years. Just in North America, the number who say an attack is likely rises to 76%.

In 2015, a cyberattack on Ukraine’s grid caused widespread blackouts and raised fears that the U.S. could be vulnerable to a similar attack.

Kuhn said he expects CESER "will play an essential role in coordinating government and industry efforts to address evolving threats to the energy grid."

Recommended Reading:

•  Department Of EnergySecretary of Energy Rick Perry Forms New Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response

Follow Robert Walton on Twitter

softdown

Dave Angelini said:

New DOE office to focus on cybersecurity, grid threats

AUTHOR

Robert Walton@TeamWetDog

• 
  

Dive Brief:

excerpt in above post by DA.

Nice change up from brilliant government investments such as the latest Afghanistan masterpiece: In an effort to lower the carbon emissions of Afghanistan, this is what we did:
1) Spent $45 million installing a nat gas station.
2) Found that Afghani's don't have nat gas cars. So we bought them nat gas cars.
3) Found that Afghani's don't have cash for nat gas. So we gave them credit cards. 

We have an earth shattering problem in Congress. They are stupid, incompetent, and corrupt. Shall I continue? 

BB.

Well, the natural gas fueling station story is actually much more complex:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/02/01/a-43-million-gas-station-in-afghanistan-not-so-fast/

At best (or at worst), the station probably cost around $3 million USD to build (not cheap, but not out of the ordinary for a large, fully redundant compressor station + on site backup power.

The project is (or was) intended to restart Afghanistan's natural gas industry (same link). Interesting about Pakistan and CNG--Did not know that:

The comparison to Pakistan is actually apples and oranges. Pakistan is the number one country in the world for using CNG, with at least 70 percent of its vehicles running on it. There are already more than 3,000 stations, meaning the incremental costs of adding a station are relatively small, experts said. By contrast, the TFBSO project was the first such station in Afghanistan.

And, it also appears to be another case of one government agency not talking to another government agency (about spending) and possibly just a random assignment of "other unrelated overhead costs" to the project for a press release to push some agenda (more fake, or useless, news)..

Is the article I quoted full of "fake news" I used to debunk "fake news"--Probably. Cut the spending of (most?) governments (fed, state, local) by 1/2--And these situations will occur much less often (in my humble opinion).

-Bill

Dave Angelini

The DOE looking at (again) cybersecurity is just the start. When you finish "lights out" you will start to see what they are up against. It hurts my head to think about what it will take to put a dent in the cyber holes.

They do not make a decent solar pump to drain some of these swamps Cut cut cut!

softdown

BB. said:

Well, the natural gas fueling station story is actually much more complex:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/02/01/a-43-million-gas-station-in-afghanistan-not-so-fast/

At best (or at worst), the station probably cost around $3 million USD to build (not cheap, but not out of the ordinary for a large, fully redundant compressor station + on site backup power.

The project is (or was) intended to restart Afghanistan's natural gas industry (same link). Interesting about Pakistan and CNG--Did not know that:

The comparison to Pakistan is actually apples and oranges. Pakistan is the number one country in the world for using CNG, with at least 70 percent of its vehicles running on it. There are already more than 3,000 stations, meaning the incremental costs of adding a station are relatively small, experts said. By contrast, the TFBSO project was the first such station in Afghanistan.

And, it also appears to be another case of one government agency not talking to another government agency (about spending) and possibly just a random assignment of "other unrelated overhead costs" to the project for a press release to push some agenda (more fake, or useless, news)..

Is the article I quoted full of "fake news" I used to debunk "fake news"--Probably. Cut the spending of (most?) governments (fed, state, local) by 1/2--And these situations will occur much less often (in my humble opinion).

-Bill

I got my facts and figures from least weeks floor speech by Senator Rand Paul. Communication will be pretty challenging if we have to wait for an official Ingsoc stamp of approval on all state news. 

He said we could balance the budget if everything and everybody took a 1% cut. Which, I could almost guarantee, very few would be alright with. 

Keep in mind there is always room for communication errors after a typical "he said that she said that he said etc". Plus it has been difficult impossible to find unbiased news. 

Debunking "fake news"? Well I already knew something there but you do your job in an exemplary fashion. Truly extraordinary really. 

softdown

Dave Angelini said:

The DOE looking at (again) cybersecurity is just the start. When you finish "lights out" you will start to see what they are up against. It hurts my head to think about what it will take to put a dent in the cyber holes.

They do not make a decent solar pump to drain some of these swamps Cut cut cut!

Do you still have hopes of any real swamp draining? That hope may be the biggest reason that we took a chance on an inexperienced and politically "uncompromised" business leader. 

It is possible that he is "playing 3D chess" and is actually several moves ahead of his opponents. It is also possible/probable that "fixing Washington" is about as possible as "fixing the weather". Both would take larger tools than we have. 

I don't believe that things look too good in the swamp draining operation. The new budget increases are very reminiscent of Obama's budget busting increases.  Cutting taxes is a "warm fuzzy" that is entirely irresponsible without commensurate cuts in spending. 

Considering that exactly one member of Congress, Senator Paul, took to the floor to warn us of our financial recklessness, this is my summary: Stick a fork in it, it is done. 

On the bright side? Japan has been skating on the edge of the abyss for a long time. Rome lurched onward for a couple centuries after the writing appeared on the wall. So we may not see the ultimate result of literally living on credit. A generation will.....someday. They will not be happy.