Is The Party Over?

The US International Trade Commission just voted in favor (4-0) of a petition by Suniva and SolarWorld, finding that solar cells “are being imported into the United States in such increased quantities as to be a substantial cause of serious injury, or threat of serious injury, to the domestic industry.” The commission has to recommend a remedy, and then send it forward to the Trump administration for final decision. Sounds as though it is likely - if the administration pushes forward - tariffs will begin on imported solar modules, especially from China. The prices of panels will then certainly go up, and we may be in a trade war as a result.
I don't think I am being political, but it seems clear that the Trump administration is much more interested in coal and the like than solar, and is also more forcefully approaching trade remedies where there seems to be a lack of fairness to the U.S.
Hopefully this link isn't behind a pay-wall:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/solar-industry-roiled-by-trade-ruling-that-some-fear-could-lead-to-tariffs/?utm_term=.b46a78cd2c03
I don't think I am being political, but it seems clear that the Trump administration is much more interested in coal and the like than solar, and is also more forcefully approaching trade remedies where there seems to be a lack of fairness to the U.S.
Hopefully this link isn't behind a pay-wall:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/solar-industry-roiled-by-trade-ruling-that-some-fear-could-lead-to-tariffs/?utm_term=.b46a78cd2c03
Off-grid cabin: 6 x Canadian Solar CSK-280M PV panels, Schneider XW-MPPT60-150 Charge Controller, Schneider CSW4024 Inverter/Charger, Schneider SCP, 4 x Vmax XTR12-155 12V, 155AH batteries in a 2x2 24V 310AH bank.
Comments
Mr Tillerson has also served as President of the Boy Scouts of America and that says a lot to some of us.
I have no idea how Trump feels about solar energy. The industry is not profitable enough to be a political power and that could help form his perspective.
My suspicion is that Trump wants American manufacturing back on it's feet. We have been making missiles and debt for quite a while. In order to get our manufacturing on somewhat more equal footing, many industries will realize significant adjustments.
The real questions are; will a competitive domestic industry emerge behind the tarrif wall, will the retaliatory actions by the foreign supplier be worth it, and most importantly, how many votes will this buy me?
Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/business/energy-environment/-us-imposes-steep-tariffs-on-chinese-solar-panels.html?mcubz=1
I am available for custom hardware/firmware development
So much of this depends on world events, politicians, and human behaviour--That economic predictions are worse than weather forecasting.
There is too much chaos in the world to make vast/accurate long term predictions (chaos not being a bad thing... You buying peas instead of carrots because peas are cheaper or you just like peas better--I prefer that than a 5 year carrot plan implemented by a government economist).
Much better than a corrupted marketplace run by our "betters".
Are we at a low price point for solar panels in the US? Probably. Will they go up because of tariffs? Depends who can offer the biggest "bribes" to the right person/people.
-Bill
A somewhat scary part of this view is that the ability to capture and interpret this information is growing exponentially. The thing is , economics profs who won't eat there own cooking aren't people getting and using the info, it's the Googles and Amazons of the world who are.
I'm violently allergic to peas, and the price related information content of my veggie choices is obviously influenced by this. The Googs et al are getting eerily close to being able to take these sorts of factors into account in modelling purchase behaviors, and related pricing, marketing, etc.
The 5 year carrot plan may not come from a government economist
Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
The US will build gas power plants at a rate to meet our needs.
The market will adjust and life will go on.
I do think somewhat pure economics work, and I do think economies including and perhaps particularly ours are manipulated for financial gain...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman
Paul Robin Krugman ( /ˈkrʊɡmən/ (
listen) KRUUG-mən;[1][2] born February 28, 1953)[3] is an American economist who is currently Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and a columnist for The New York Times.[4] In 2008, Krugman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.[5] The Prize Committee cited Krugman's work explaining the patterns of international trade and the geographic distribution of economic activity, by examining the effects of economies of scale and of consumer preferences for diverse goods and services.[6]
Krugman was previously a professor of economics at MIT, and later at Princeton University. He retired from Princeton in June 2015, and holds the title of professor emeritus there. He also holds the title of Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics.[7] Krugman was President of the Eastern Economic Association in 2010, and is among the most influential economists in the world.[8] Krugman is known in academia for his work on international economics (including trade theory, economic geography, and international finance),[9][10] liquidity traps, and currency crisis.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/225981
-Bill
It's been a while since I've read his non-mainstream papers on trade theory etc., but as I recall they were much more interesting than the populist drivel.
Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
"you’d probably be hard pressed to find even many economists willing to defend our discipline as a science, or at least anything resembling a hard science. As the Times piece points out, “The trouble with economics is that it lacks the most important of science’s characteristics — a record of improvement in predictive range and accuracy.”"
Astronomy is accepted now as a science, but for centuries is was mostly bunkum mixed in with a little bit of reality. With the right tools, the bunkum got falsified, and the "predictive range and accuracy" started improving.
Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/23/germany-probably-wont-meet-its-global-warming-goal-despite-shelling-out-800-billion-for-green-energy/
Germany has spent $780 billion in recent decades, Bloomberg reported, and it’s not enough to get them toward their national goal of cutting carbon dioxide emissions 40 percent by 2020.
“We expect Energiewende cost to fall starting from early 2020 – renewable power from newly build wind and solar is now the most cheapest power in Germany,” Christoph Podewils, Agora’s communications director, told TheDCNF.
“Of course we have lot of challenges – market design, regulation, grid expansion and enhancements, acceptance, de-carbonising of heating and transport – but cost is no issue anymore,” Christoph said.
However, average Germans are feeling the pain. Electricity costs are about three times higher than in the U.S., driven mostly by increases in energy taxes to pay for green energy. Heat is so expensive it’s called “the second rent.”
German industry, on the other hand, is exempt from green energy laws out of fear they would no longer be competitive. That’s shifted more of the cost onto residents and smaller businesses.
German emissions are down 27 percent from 1990 levels, which is ahead of other European countries, but still behind what they need to meet their goal.
Emissions have come down all while coal plants have thrive. Coal, especially lignite, is a cheap source of fuel in Germany that’s competitively subsidized green energy sources. Coal is also a more reliable energy source since it doesn’t rely on the sun and wind.
“Germany’s CO2 emissions in the electricity sector haven’t decreased since 1995,” Peiser said. “The country is almost certain to fail its climate targets by 2020 by a wide margin.”
“All that renewables have achieved is to replace zero-carbon nuclear and low-carbon gas power generation while coal power generation is increasingly competitive and thriving,” he said.
Any academic/engineering endeavor that is bent towards a political goal via government subsidizes will, more than likely, eventually fail. Especially in the face of a, relatively, free market.
-Bill
They working hard down in the valley Bill on "our" bullet train....
http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
E-mail [email protected]
-Bill
Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
I think we need to figure out how to burn coal without much of the current negative impacts. Sure we have come a long way but not far enough in my opinion. How many people want to commit their lives to removing pollutants from burning coal? That doesn't sound sexy at all.
Rambling here....but it seems like most internet sleuths fall into one of two camps:
1) Scorched earth burn it all, pollution isn't harmful school of thought.
2) People should live like cavemen except for me....DiCaprio, Gore, and Cameron etc. Oh yea...cavemen without that fire thingie. Because climate change.
Nuclear energy was the answer for awhile. Looks good on paper until Murphy shows up.
We could very easily make homes that use a lot less energy. I spend ~$100/year heating a home in one of the coldest regions in the continental US:
1) Wear ~ten pounds of clothing....joking a bit here.
2) Sunrooms can generate a lot of heat.
3) Fans can do at least 1/2 of what air conditioning is used for.
I still yearn for better battery technology. Seems that is always "ten years off".
Coal has not been able to keep up with the dropping cost of natural gas and other sources including renewables, it has just become uncompetitive in many regions. Lignite coal is your last resort low energy coal because you have mined most of not all the energy dense Anthracite coal. You need more lignite coal to match the energy of Anthracite coal.
It's also note worthy to point out that Germany is going to miss it's 2020 emissions goal by roughly the same amount of its shuttered nuclear power.
But despite that their track record for reducing emissions looks impressive, they have an advanced industrial economy yet they reduced emissions buy 38% since 1990, the US has increased 4% in the other hand. Regardless they are on their way to meet its goal.
Germany increased reliance on lignite coal to compensate for its shuttered nuclear fleet. Unlike the US they do not frack. They do not have the benefit of cheap abundant natural gas.
I think the renewable tax credits have been one of the most useful things our government has done. Providing both a current boost and a future benefit. I understand that they have reached the end of their useful life, but the change has been remarkable in the acceptance and cost.
The modernization they made was to bring East Germany out of its poor industrial infrastructure and manufacturing state from when they were part of the Eastern Block.
Andy it only took $780,000,000 USD and 3x higher energy rates to get to this point.
To make all of this "seem to work"--They have kept their industries by making their population pay the costs:
However, average Germans are feeling the pain. Electricity costs are about three times higher than in the U.S., driven mostly by increases in energy taxes to pay for green energy. Heat is so expensive it’s called “the second rent.”
German industry, on the other hand, is exempt from green energy laws out of fear they would no longer be competitive. That’s shifted more of the cost onto residents and smaller businesses.
That is not sustainable.
Governments are not our friends... Look at the national debt and unfunded liabilities at the city, state, and federal levels in the US:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/municipalities-declared-bankruptcy/ (as of 2014)
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/06/12/Could-Illinois-Be-First-State-Go-Bankrupt
http://fortune.com/2017/05/04/puerto-rico-bankruptcy-debt/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/17/you-think-the-deficit-is-bad-federal-unfunded-liabilities-exceed-127-trillion
All of the above--Government promised and paid more (much in underfunded pension plans) than they could afford (and tax).
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/41825072/ns/business-us_business/t/madoff-whole-government-ponzi-scheme/
Wall Street swindler Bernard Madoff said in a magazine interview published Sunday that new regulatory reform enacted after the recent national financial crisis is laughable and that the federal government is a Ponzi scheme."The whole new regulatory reform is a joke," Madoff said during a telephone interview with New York magazine in which he discussed his disdain for the financial industry and for its regulators.
The interview was published on the magazine's website Sunday night.
Madoff did an earlier New York Times interview in which he accused banks and hedge funds of being "complicit" in his Ponzi scheme to fleece people out of billions of dollars. He said they failed to scrutinize the discrepancies between his regulatory filings and other information.
He said in the New York magazine interview the Securities and Exchange Commission "looks terrible in this thing," and he said the "whole government is a Ponzi scheme."
-Bill
"It takes a noble man to plant a seed for a tree that will some day give shade to people he may never meet."D. Elton Trueblood
Even though they have had a few bumps on the road, and they are minor, these bumps havenot prevented Germany nor any either nation from scrapping its transition to renewable energy. Customers in Germany experience fewer minutes of power outage per year than those in the U.S., for example as measured by SAIDIhttps://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Allgemeines/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/161020_SAIDI.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/data-show-that-germany-s-grid-is-one-of-the-world-s-most-reliable/
https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2015/06/15/is-the-u-s-investing-enough-in-electricity-grid-reliability/
Why are the people focusing on Germany so much in this case?
Denmark is (probably) the country with the most non-hydro-renewables.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7c/Percentage_electricity_generation_in_Denmark_by_source.png
They went from 28.1% renewables in 2007 to 57.4% in 2014.
They doubled it within 7 years.
Now comparing two regions, especially in two opposite ends of the world with completely different energy goals and resources, and saying well look at them! its not working they pay more. You cant really compare apples to apples, The Unites States does not have the same energy goal, or better yet its not as aggressive as Germany, If we had the same goal here, to transition to renewable sources such as Germany, It would make a more accurate comparison. The only comparison you can get from comparing the US to Germany is that it cost money to transition a Nation.
Our current energy prices our based off of an energy grid that has mostly been the same for 50 years, with cheap abundant Natural Gas from fracking operations.
When you have large portions of the economy not paying their fair share of taxes, You will definitely end up with short coming down the road.
I am available for custom hardware/firmware development
http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost
- $2M per MW / 0.15 duty cycle = $13.3MUSD per MW "useful"
Vs for coal and natural gas plants:https://www.ifeu.de/energie/pdf/IFEU Arrhenius _2007_ Moorburg Alternatives Summary.pdf (November 2007 report)
http://www.ref.org.uk/attachments/article/280/ref.hughes.19.12.12.pdf
Let alone the issues of killing birds, Making it difficult to live within several miles down wind of turbines do to noise, large amount of land dedicated to wind farms, etc... Yes coal mines are not very pretty/environmentally friendly either...
-Bill
https://www.lazard.com/media/438038/levelized-cost-of-energy-v100.pdf
I am available for custom hardware/firmware development