How many years before planning on replacing my Outback Flexpower?

softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭✭
Live alone and the Outback stays in a cool environment  - next to the root cellar. Never gets over 62F. It may last a long time due to fairly low power requirements and a cool environment. It has been going for about 4 1/2 years now. 

The county realized their mistake in my tax assessment - which was five times higher than normal. I may stay put though I'd like a Plan B somewhere in Mexico in case Civil War breaks out due to gun confiscation etc. 
First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries

Comments

  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,478 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You probably already know it will fail shortly after civil war breaks out due to gun confiscation etc., but you decided to stay.  Just the way it goes  >:)

    Realistically, I'd expect 10-15 yrs.


    Off-grid.  
    Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
    Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You may need to go further south to get away from the solar minimum.

    This is from my BIL at a military location near us. He did not give me permission.......I am old enough to not ask.

    "Actually, yes...sort of.  The science is unproven and completely theoretical at this point, but there is documented and climatic evidence supporting the grand solar minimum theory. The last occurrence was from 1645 to 1715 and was known as the Maunder Minimum. Sunspot drawers during the time noted an extended period of little to no sunspot development during this time (50 sunspots during solar maximum versus 50,000 during “normal” times,  which coincided with a “miniature ice age” where summers were exceedingly cold throughout Europe and winters even more so.  

     

    A study from last solar cycle showed a strong decrease in solar convective transport (sub-photosphere levels where sunspots form) that would indicate this minimum will be very weak and adding credence to the idea that we are again entering another grand solar minimum that could last 3 cycles (11 years from minimum to maximum thus an actual 22 year cycle (peak to peak or trough to trough)) all equaling a possible 66 year period of cold being forecast.

     

    Somehow we survived and will again.

     

    On the other hand, it is the perfect antithesis of global warming, which, curiously enough, has coincided with an approximately four cycle, or about 80 years, period of enhanced solar maxima which is likely the real cause of anthropogenic climate change, not carbon. 

     

    Curiously, normal eleven year solar minima also coincide with development of ozone holes in the atmosphere, largely because there is decreased X-ray output, from solar flares, to split oxygen atoms, O2, into ozone, O. But we again blamed ourselves and our aerosol deodorants and refrigerants.  Oddly, the ozone holes quickly closed during coinciding solar maxima.

     

    So, the theory is out there. I can see the reasoning and am looking forward to seeing at least one or two more cycles to see if it pans out.  I buy it far more than the anthropogenic theories of climate change.

     

    I believe, because there was a climate change discussion, that you now owe me $225 as my professional meteorologist pricing schedule dictates that any such discussion costs $75, three hour minimum.

     

    Would you like a five day terrestrial forecast?"

    No !  --Dave

    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank-you for the costco canadian. Having some now.... Here is the background from above.

    In the latter half, former CBS-TV reporter Hugh Simpson warned that a coming solar minimum could result in a catastrophic breakdown of infrastructure because of our dependence on technology, and lack of preparation. During a solar minimum, sunspots are reduced to their lowest amount, and this causes the temperature of the sun to go down, thus making Earth a colder place. While the effect from the normal 11-year sunspot cycle is somewhat minimal, he cited the research of Professor Valentina Zharkova, whom he said has found evidence that we're likely on the verge of entering a new 'Grand Solar Minimum" which occurs every 350-400 years. This cycle can be accompanied by a mini Ice Age lasting more than 30 years.

    The most desirable locations during such an Ice Age would be near the equator, he reported. During the previous mini or Little Ice Age, there were major food shortages and starvation-- Zharkova is cautioning that this could happen again, said Simpson. Areas in the US like the Midwest and the Plains could have their growing seasons cut way back, and in the winter, we'd likely see very long stretches of minus degree weather, he continued. Simpson suggests that people start getting prepared now, as Zharkova estimates that these changes could begin within five years. He has experimented with self-sufficiency using a water-based Bioponica growing system within a dome that is powered by 'Crank-a-Watt' units. For more details, Simpson is offering his free 'master plan' to C2C listeners.

    Can't beat a free master plan. --Dave

    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • rollandelliottrollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    gun confiscation would require repeal of 2nd amendment, which takes 2/3rd of the states to ratify, of which most are run by republican governors.  The usa couldn't even get expanded background checks after 20 innocent kids were killed at sandy hook. No wonder the NRA can peddle it's "take your guns" fear mongering, people must of been sleeping during social studies at school.  Basically civil war over guns is not going to happen.  The government would squash any right or left wing militias anyways. The whole notion that some private militias could stand up to the government is laughable. USA spends 10x more on military than any other country.  Look at history, bundy ranchers, lost.
  • rollandelliottrollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=repair+solar+inverter

    if you are decent with electronics, it seems that most inverter failure videos on youtube are either capacitors failing or relay switches failing, both are cheap components and fairly easy to fix if you are handy with electronics. 

    the problem with getting many inverters fixed is that they are heavy/bulky to ship. It often makes sense to look on ebay or other places for replacement units instead of buying a new one. for example SMA sunny boy inverters used are $500 or less. With shipping both ways and repair fees it is cheaper to just buy a used inverter then get it fixed. 
  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,478 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I kinda hope the minima thing is real.  We're seeing pesky bugs (emerald ash borer, pine beetles, lyme carrying ticks) that used to be killed off regularly by colder winters.
    Off-grid.  
    Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
    Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭✭
    gun confiscation would require repeal of 2nd amendment, which takes 2/3rd of the states to ratify, of which most are run by republican governors.  The usa couldn't even get expanded background checks after 20 innocent kids were killed at sandy hook. No wonder the NRA can peddle it's "take your guns" fear mongering, people must of been sleeping during social studies at school.  Basically civil war over guns is not going to happen.  The government would squash any right or left wing militias anyways. The whole notion that some private militias could stand up to the government is laughable. USA spends 10x more on military than any other country.  Look at history, bundy ranchers, lost.
    I think the Oregon Bundy's scored a major court victory earlier this year.
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭✭
    Thank-you for the costco canadian. Having some now.... Here is the background from above.

    In the latter half, former CBS-TV reporter Hugh Simpson warned that a coming solar minimum could result in a catastrophic breakdown of infrastructure because of our dependence on technology, and lack of preparation. During a solar minimum, sunspots are reduced to their lowest amount, and this causes the temperature of the sun to go down, thus making Earth a colder place. While the effect from the normal 11-year sunspot cycle is somewhat minimal, he cited the research of Professor Valentina Zharkova, whom he said has found evidence that we're likely on the verge of entering a new 'Grand Solar Minimum" which occurs every 350-400 years. This cycle can be accompanied by a mini Ice Age lasting more than 30 years.

    The most desirable locations during such an Ice Age would be near the equator, he reported. During the previous mini or Little Ice Age, there were major food shortages and starvation-- Zharkova is cautioning that this could happen again, said Simpson. Areas in the US like the Midwest and the Plains could have their growing seasons cut way back, and in the winter, we'd likely see very long stretches of minus degree weather, he continued. Simpson suggests that people start getting prepared now, as Zharkova estimates that these changes could begin within five years. He has experimented with self-sufficiency using a water-based Bioponica growing system within a dome that is powered by 'Crank-a-Watt' units. For more details, Simpson is offering his free 'master plan' to C2C listeners.

    Can't beat a free master plan. --Dave

    Ha - was thinking you had imbibed in some stout whiskey well before finishing the previous post. Was not aware of the Grand Solar Minimum. Can't hardly prepare for everything and live a decent life at the same time. 

    Got one prediction so far: 10-15 years. Based on that I should not worry for another few years. Though the prepper in me likes having back up. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A back-up to the back-up is a good thing! Our sheriff has at least 3 weapons on him. Going to the big city costco tomorrow for spare kirkland crown :) Kind of a pre-prepper thing.
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • BB.BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 31,153 admin
    edited August 2019 #11
    I looked up one time about what the transition time was between major climate shifts....  Many of them seem to be on the (rough) order of 10 years or so.
    These changes don't seem to me to be 100 to 1,000 year transitions.
    If and when a transition occurs, it will probably be fairly quick.
    Add comet, asteroids, and volcanos, those transitions could occur in minutes to days...
    Will not be pretty if future changes are quick and deadly.
    Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is a mastodon somewhere in a museum with prey in it's mouth. It froze that fast! Yet another reason to go to costco....
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,478 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As I was reading this there was a story on the radio about how developers are building condos with minimal or no kitchens. 

    Apparently the people buying the units see kitchens as a waste of space because they always eat or order out, and can't or won't use the kitchen.  I'm guessing they also might have trouble with a screwdriver that didn't come in an Ikea box, nevermind an axe for firewood.

    Maybe it's time to cull the herd anyway, though it probably won't be these cooking challenged types who get cut first, but one can hope.  Maybe a future museum will feature a kid with an Uber Eats in his mouth.
    Off-grid.  
    Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
    Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Some culling is a good thing. There is a guy in the US who buys and refurbs missile silos for the rich. I will try and find the youtube I saw.
    Great ideas on how to stay alive in some bad scenarios.

    We have a group on our little mountain that is going to defend it, we say. I think, if it gets that bad, it has been a good life and why spoil it with torture at the end. Also a good reason for not saving the aged spirits too long.

    Like my cat with his torture chamber where he brings critters for dissection. No thanks. 

    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]ti.net

  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,478 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Aged spirits should never be saved too long. 

    I hope to toast the aged spirits as I watch the life-ending asteroid hit the earth while imbibing too much aged spirits. 

    My cat will be amused that I'm amused.
    Off-grid.  
    Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
    Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭✭
    There is a mastodon somewhere in a museum with prey in it's mouth. It froze that fast! Yet another reason to go to costco....
    Grass in its mouth? "Gobetz and Stephen Bozarth, adjunct assistant professor of geography, studied plant cells trapped in hardened plaque from mastodons that died 11,000 years ago, during the last ice age. They found that 86 percent of the cells came from grasses."

    Glad I helped ya! Getting into craft beers here. Have to drink em down - they only store for six weeks due to lack of preservatives. 

    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭✭

    Estragon said:
    As I was reading this there was a story on the radio about how developers are building condos with minimal or no kitchens. 

    Apparently the people buying the units see kitchens as a waste of space because they always eat or order out, and can't or won't use the kitchen.  I'm guessing they also might have trouble with a screwdriver that didn't come in an Ikea box, nevermind an axe for firewood.

    Maybe it's time to cull the herd anyway, though it probably won't be these cooking challenged types who get cut first, but one can hope.  Maybe a future museum will feature a kid with an Uber Eats in his mouth.
    Yea - Was thinking that Thanos had some logic in his argument. Too many people are the root of so many of our problems. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • rollandelliottrollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    Yea - Was thinking that Thanos had some logic in his argument. Too many people are the root of so many of our problems. 

    it's a comic book, >:)>:)>:)

  • rollandelliottrollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    I think the Oregon Bundy's scored a major court victory earlier this year.
    it was a pardon by Trump, none the less a mute point, their little militia was crushed by the us government.
  • PhotowhitPhotowhit Solar Expert Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2019 #20
    Well this thread has taken a few bends...

    My latest addition to my quasi preppers equipment for simple is a Fastfermenter.  After  watching a Facebook friend  make wine in 5 gallon buckets with nothing more than fruit and some clean buckets and airlocks (no special sanitizer, no  special yeast! though he did some batches with wine yeast later) I saw two of these for cheap  ($70 total with stand and racks). These  are not my units, but the same brand, they had wall mounts like these as well as the wire stands! I figured  my friend who is  a chemist and loves wine and gardening would like to try (wrong)

    Image result for fastferment

    It's a 7 gallon fermentation vessel with a valve and quart container at the base to toss (or salvage yeast) the dregs. Eliminates a lot of the racking  of some things, I want to make hard cider so I shouldn't have to rack the cider ever! Something new to play with, now to  find a steam juicer...lol. Something to play with...

    ...odd thing is I may have 5-7 drinks a year...

    Really wish she would have taken one.  Now I have things like "SkeeterPee" in my saved web sites, It's sort of a hard lemonade... 

    I've been alternating between making 5-7 bushes of Apples into applesauce  or dehydrating 5-7  bushels, maybe I can add this to the mix, really seems like a lot less time involved...
    I cheated and did these at a friends while house sitting. I had just built a solar dehydrator that will hold about the same amount as these 2, but a 2 day run to dehydrate, I couldn't have done them all in a week.

    Home system 4000 watt (Evergreen) array standing, with 2 Midnite Classic Lites,  Midnite E-panel, Prosine 1800 and Exeltech 1100, 660 ah 24v ForkLift battery. Off grid for @16 of last 17 years. Assorted other systems, and to many panels in the closet to not do more...lol
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭✭✭


    Nice photowit!  I think this looked like the "prey" in the mastodons mouth.

    Probably the biggest threat to Sdowns outback is anything coming in from outside, like lightning.
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail [email protected]

  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,494 ✭✭✭✭
    Yea - Was thinking that Thanos had some logic in his argument. Too many people are the root of so many of our problems. 

    it's a comic book, >:)>:)>:)

    Doesn't matter. There is considerable logic in the argument that too many people are literally killing so much of the beauty and greatness of planet earth. I could have substituted Bill Gates instead of Thanos but Thanos is a bit more colorful.
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
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