Tesla - Solar Roof Tiles

" I would be happy if the 50 years into the future goes a full 50 years"  --Dave





BB. said:

50 years in the future is very difficult to predict--But I would be hard pressed to see much change in the basic components.

Solar panels are already pretty cheap and about the maximum efficiency you are going to see with "cheap materials" (silicon, glass, copper). You could see solar panels go up in efficiency from 20% to 40%--They can do that today--But it is just not worth the costs. And if my roof already fits enough panels to power my home--Paying a bunch more for smaller array is not worth much to me.

Power electronics--The dies for power transistors are "old technology" and just getting physically larger. There is not much improvement to see here--Other than, possibly, integrating some of the other control electronics onto the power transistor die. A "minor cost improvement" and some size reduction (good for micro inverters).

The rest of the hardware? Racking, wiring. Power is power. As long as you want X,000 Watts at Y00 volts, your wire will have to be a certain gauge and insulation type. Unlike computer processing power, there is no scaling from miniaturization other than some minor cost reductions (2x more efficient panels, 1/2 the amount of racking/wiring). At this point, it seems that the cost of solar panels ($$/Watt) is about the same costs as the racking ($$/Watt). Cutting solar panel cost by 1/2 only saves 1/4 of the array installation hardware costs (as an example).

Computer chips+software, reliability. Can always improve--But we are at the point were small/cheap single chip computers can do all of the basics. Want a graphical user interface? Pipe the data to your existing PC or Cell Phone/Tablet. Me (especially on grid tied), I just want my system to work. Not going to pay much for bells and whistels that do not do much else (don't make more power, does not fix bad hardware, does not make up for state PUC and Utility rate plan downgrades, etc.).

Batteries: That is the one place where solar (and alternative power sources) really need help. Lots of talk, but we are still (primarily) using the same basic Lead Acid technology as from 1859. Just improvements around the edges (better packaging, slight tweaks to chemistry, a full recycling infrastructure, automation during manufacturing, better transportation infrastructure--trucks, roads, railroads, world wide supply chain for materials, etc.).

I have not really seen any Batteries yet that will "blow the socks off" the lead acid battery (price/performance and risk/reward). Certainly getting close with some versions of Li Ion... And there are some molten salt batteries that may make sense for utility scale batteries in the future.

But just like cars--Still using the Otto and Diesel cycle engines today. Certainly cars are better today (cleaner, more reliable, more efficient, safer) than cars of a 100 years ago--But the Electric Car is still "not there" as there are some hurtles to overcome (battery tech, and where does all of that charging current come from if we went to >80% electric vehicles tomorrow).

Of course, I am predicting the future, and I am predicting my predictions are wrong.

-Bill

mvas said:

Tesla Roof Tiles may have competition from Forward Labs in Palo Alto, California ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/31/palo-alto-startup-claims-solar-roof-makes-electricity-tesla-glass-tiles-costs-less/

Lumisol said:

Panasonic stock price:    13.73 per share USD Last Dec.    11.41
Tesla stock price:          339.85 per share USD Last Dec. :181.00

Panasonic is a bankable company? lol I like my Tesla stock. I bought it at 54.00 in 2013. At the same time Panasonic sold for 5.92.