Won't this be interesting (Solar Eclipse and GT power)

BB.

August 21st 2017, the great West Coast Blackout?

California’s sun will go dark Aug. 21. And when the moon crosses the sun, California’s solar power grid will slowly, quietly, stop working.

State energy officials are warning residents to click off all lights they don’t need and unplug all electrical appliances when 62 percent of the sun disappears over Los Angeles during a partial solar eclipse that is expected that day.

Nobody is warning of blackouts. But then again, nobody knows what will happen.

"When the sun goes away, so does the energy that powers our renewable solar panels. If millions of Californians turn off appliances and power strips to unplug from the grid during the eclipse, we can let our hard-working sun take a break,” said Michael Picker, president of the California Public Utilities Commission.

The California Public Utilities Commission has branded the upcoming eclipse as not just a solar eclipse but the “Great Solar Eclipse.”

It’s only a partial eclipse that will travel across California from about 9:02 a.m. until 11:54 a.m. Pacific time. But still, it will be significant because of the solar energy that the state’s energy grid will lose.

A California Public Utilities Commission statement said the sun was expected to be obscured from 76 percent in Northern California to 62 percent in Southern California, “and this reduction in solar radiation will directly affect the output of both large-scale photovoltaic (PV) electric power plants and rooftop solar.”

“Nearly 10,000 MWs of commercially operational grid-connected solar PV is currently operated by California's investor-owned utilities, and more will soon be completed,” the CPUC statement said. “Initial estimates show at the eclipse peak, commercial solar production for the investor-owned utilities will be reduced from an estimated 8,754 MWs to 3,143 MWs at the maximum partial eclipse and then return to 9,046 MWs.”

“The normal morning solar ramp will be interrupted with a down ramp beginning at 9:02 a.m. followed by a greatly accentuated up ramp beginning at 10:22 a.m. until noon,” the CPUC statement added.

California is not expected to experience another eclipse of this magnitude until 2045. But more importantly, an eclipse like this has never happened while California has depended so much on solar power.

....

Oh boy...

-Bill

Estragon

This is from The Onion, right? California never gets a couple hours of heavy cloud, and state law makes everyone unplug appliances at night?

BB.

Nope... Note the Onion.

Just covering the rear ends of politicians if "something" goes wrong.

I am not sure I understand or agree that these numbers are accurate (loads, generation, solar/RE generation), but there is a lot of information here. Will be interesting to click here on August 21st and see what happens:

http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx

It appears that we have a 26 GW load and a peak of near 10GW of solar on a sunny day.

At least from the numbers, we have enough natural gas fired plants (>~35GW) to run normal loads even if everything else went "dark". But, has the fine print says: “Installed capacity” refers to the total amount of generation capacity, but does not reflect the total generation available for dispatch at any given time. ​ Although, a heat wave can push numbers much higher (today's peak is 50 GW).
 
-Bill

Estragon

As I recall, things got really interesting in Ca electric markets around 15 years ago. I guess that may be a factor in the CYA aspect.

It does show how there's a limit to how much solar can realistically make up of capacity without a viable storage mechanism, even in areas with good solar resource.

Lumisol

BB. said:

August 21st 2017, the great West Coast Blackout?

California’s sun will go dark Aug. 21. And when the moon crosses the sun, California’s solar power grid will slowly, quietly, stop working.

State energy officials are warning residents to click off all lights they don’t need and unplug all electrical appliances when 62 percent of the sun disappears over Los Angeles during a partial solar eclipse that is expected that day.

Nobody is warning of blackouts. But then again, nobody knows what will happen.

"When the sun goes away, so does the energy that powers our renewable solar panels. If millions of Californians turn off appliances and power strips to unplug from the grid during the eclipse, we can let our hard-working sun take a break,” said Michael Picker, president of the California Public Utilities Commission.

The California Public Utilities Commission has branded the upcoming eclipse as not just a solar eclipse but the “Great Solar Eclipse.”

It’s only a partial eclipse that will travel across California from about 9:02 a.m. until 11:54 a.m. Pacific time. But still, it will be significant because of the solar energy that the state’s energy grid will lose.

A California Public Utilities Commission statement said the sun was expected to be obscured from 76 percent in Northern California to 62 percent in Southern California, “and this reduction in solar radiation will directly affect the output of both large-scale photovoltaic (PV) electric power plants and rooftop solar.”

“Nearly 10,000 MWs of commercially operational grid-connected solar PV is currently operated by California's investor-owned utilities, and more will soon be completed,” the CPUC statement said. “Initial estimates show at the eclipse peak, commercial solar production for the investor-owned utilities will be reduced from an estimated 8,754 MWs to 3,143 MWs at the maximum partial eclipse and then return to 9,046 MWs.”

“The normal morning solar ramp will be interrupted with a down ramp beginning at 9:02 a.m. followed by a greatly accentuated up ramp beginning at 10:22 a.m. until noon,” the CPUC statement added.

California is not expected to experience another eclipse of this magnitude until 2045. But more importantly, an eclipse like this has never happened while California has depended so much on solar power.

....

Oh boy...

-Bill

Very appropriate that it's in the scams section. Reminds me of the Y2K doomsayers or the 2012 end of the world conspiracy. I bet California is still the same after the eclipse as it was before it.
Anyone want to place a bet?

westbranch

Dang we are going to be in Prince Edward Island for a wedding so will miss the event...... will just have to watch the riots etc on the TV...  I can hear it now ...  ''the sky is falling, the sun is dying, ....''

pdh

Looking at the maps, the path of total eclipse goes through northern Oregon, and doesn't really come that close to California. But there will be several hours of diminished sun everywhere in the continental U.S. -- we all get a partial eclipse, of varying intensity and duration.

Lumisol

I remember flying through the area of totality during one eclipse so we could get some awesome photographs of the event.

pdh

If you want to observe how the eclipse affects solar power generation in California, check this site:

http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/SolarEclipse/Default.aspx

Dave Angelini

I doubt I will notice anything off the grid 

Marc Kurth

Dave Angelini said:

I doubt I will notice anything off the grid 

I doubt that I will notice anything on the grid

(But my genset and battery bank are always ready)

Dave Angelini

You guys have a good grid in Texas I hear Marc! 

Marc Kurth

Dave, I just don't think about it much. Locally we pay $0.10/kwh flat, no tiers, no demand charges, no TOU and I can't recall the last outage.

I wish I still had access to the metering/monitoring systems for the larger ground mount fields that we worked with when I was at Sun Edison. That would be interesting to watch!

Dave Angelini

Nice that Texas does not share the grid with other states. I always thought that was very smart! 
Below me in the central valley it is close to $.20/kWh baseline and $.40 for the next tier. After that you are a high user and pay a fee for that. So if you use cooling, and they have to down there, you get to really pay some denaro!

mike95490

Texas uses HV DC lines to export power to other states, so that they (Texas) can be isolated in case of a fault (solar flare, ??)

Dave Angelini

mike95490 said:

Texas uses HV DC lines to export power to other states, so that they (Texas) can be isolated in case of a fault (solar flare, ??)

Yep and EMP also, and they don't have to have the magic wandu to get by!

Marc Kurth

IMHO, either a Carrington type event or an intentional EMP are huge threats that far too many people ignore. There are multiple reasons that I moved from CA to TX smile: :-)

But then, if I lived where that Angelini guy lives - I might have stayed longer!

nickdearing88

I'm sure there are variations but from what I understand the mainland US is primarily served by three grids: East, West, or Texas

BB.

Warning! Warning!

Some links may not work:

Social Media Coordinator Christa Bigue, County of San Mateo Agency

The Solar Eclipse is Coming – Be an Energy-Saving Champion on August 21st!

To help support California and San Mateo County in our energy reduction efforts, please curb your electricity consumption during the solar eclipse on Monday, Aug. 21, 2017. If we all use less, California can avoid buying supplementary electricity generated by fossil fuels, which generate more GHG emissions, while the state’s solar energy production is affected by the eclipse. Please follow these tips to curb your electricity consumption between 9 a.m. and noon on Monday, August 21st, 2017:
• Avoid printing, copying, and scanning when possible.
• Take advantage of natural daylight and turn off the lights.
• Do not run the dishwasher and washing machine/dryer between 9 a.m. & noon.
• Turn off unused computers and monitors.
• Take the stairs – use your body’s energy instead of electricity to power an elevator.
• Turn off the air conditioner. • Close the windows and blinds to shade your home and office to maintain a more comfortable temperature inside.
• Unplug items that are not in use. It takes energy to power the microwave, heat water, make coffee, etc.
• Limit the use of personal electronics (for example, fans, space heating, cell phone charging, clocks, hot water heaters, etc.).
• If you need to charge batteries or battery-operated equipment, do so before 9 a.m. or after noon.

-Bill

westbranch

Hangs for ever, and then you have to be a member of the "CLUB" for 25 th Ave...  NOPE!

Marc Kurth

Danger, danger Will Robinson......!

BB.

Most of the interesting information is in the quote. This is a "neighborhood" site (local news and events website replacing newspapers).

-Bill

aminaelis

The solar eclipse madness starts to unfold... uh...

littleharbor2

Fake news. It's Obamas fault. 

mcgivor

Big non issue IMO , those with logging capabilities should record the event, in the interest of science and post the results. That would be really interesting, less than 3 minutes total shadow, perhaps 30 minutes of interruption would be like a cloudy day, but what if it is a cloudy day.....double jeapody?

Dave Angelini

It is Obamas fault and all the presidents before and congress creeps who have ignored hardening the grid to even a basic level. Probably a fault also is the tax payers, who don't vote and the ones who are ignorant that do. Cheery thoughts 

I like the double jeopardy part!

Estragon

But it's all going to be okay if we all leave our phone chargers off!

bill von novak

Dave Angelini said:

It is Obamas fault and all the presidents before and congress creeps who have ignored hardening the grid to even a basic level. Probably a fault also is the tax payers, who don't vote and the ones who are ignorant that do. Cheery thoughts 

Given that, overall, grid reliability is going up, I'd say we're not doing too bad.

Dave Angelini

Well, not to bad is not going to cut it when and if it happens. The part that I thought was interesting is that it takes over a year to make the large transformers that connect the different parts of the grid. The speaker said there were 5 spares for over 4,000 transformers. The large class X solar flare in 1859 melted telegraph wiring and wooden rail ties began to burn. Not much hope for the forum here 

I apologize Bill for bringing this up again but I think the other 7 people who have done this before me have moved on!  Friday!

What Damage Could Be Caused by a Massive Solar Storm?

An enormous solar storm could short out telecom satellites, radio communications, and power grids, leading to trillions of dollars in damages, experts say

By Joseph Stromberg

SMITHSONIAN.COM 
FEBRUARY 22, 2013

4052341.7K

image: http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/science/files/2013/02/sunspot-small.jpg

image: http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/science/files/2013/02/sunspot.jpg

A sunspot six times the diameter of Earth formed on the sun on Wednesday. Image via NASA/SDO/AIA/HMI/Goddard Space Flight Center

On Wednesday, NASA released an image of a series of enormous sunspots snapped by at the Solar Dynamics Observatory, an orbiting telescope. The sunspots—the dark spots in the center of the image—are estimated to be larger in diameter than six Earths placed next to each other.

These sunspots pose no inherent danger—they’re merely temporary areas of intense magnetic activity that inhibit the sun’s normal convection currents—but, on occasion, the unstable area around a sunspot can trigger an unusually large solar flare (below), flinging streams of radiation outward from the sun. And a big enough solar flare can lead to an alteration in solar wind significant enough to set off a geomagnetic storm here on Earth, with the potential to short the circuitry on satellites and disrupt our telecommunications infrastructure worldwide.

To be clear, such a scenario seems unlikely to occur from this current set of sunspots—SpaceWeather.com indicates there is just a 15% chance of X-class flares at the moment, the minimum level necessary to knock out satellites and ground-based communications technologies. But we decided to take this opportunity to imagine just how far-reaching the effects of a massive solar flare would be in today’s ultra-connected world.

It so happens that at least once during recorded history, a solar event of this magnitude did occur: the solar storm of 1859. On September 1 and 2 of that year, the largest geomagnetic storm in recorded history occurred, causing aurorae (the northern and southern lights) to be visible around the world. The Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser wrote:

Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-damage-could-be-caused-by-a-massive-solar-storm-25627394/#UM2P4WW04dLOPbW2.99
Give the gift of Smithsonian magazine for only $12! http://bit.ly/1cGUiGv
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Marc Kurth

Yep........I am personally convinced that either a Carrington type event or a well placed EMP or two, could will completely unravel us.
And it's not a matter of "if"............

And Dave, to even further amplify your comments, let's discuss where those transformers currently being made.

Marc

Dave Angelini

The speaker did not say where they were made, I am guessing Texas

It is good that the people we elect are too busy taking care of important things like gender reassignment/dysphoria and reclaiming all the metal in those confederate statues.

 If they had time, imagine the damage they could do, up there at a level with Carrington!