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Marc Kurth
Marc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭✭
in In the Weeds--Member's Choice #1
I have been in the AGM wholesale battery business since May of 2008 and I have never seen the current level of demand. Seriously, the demand for product is breaking all records. Initially, we saw a surge in sales when Covid caused a lot of folks to skip the trips to Hawaii, Europe, South America, etc. They were putting their boats/RVs/cabins back into use for domestic trips and I get that. Then the first "fear wave" began with large numbers of people looking for a small degree of self-sufficiency/escape/hideaway. The guy who needed to keep his CPAP machine running, the lady who needed refrigeration for her child's insulin, the hunter with 400 lbs. of meat in their freezer, etc. The small Pv system was the order of the day!
Next came the high demand shortages triggered by incoming shipments backed up in the harbors, coupled with a doubling and tripling of container costs from Asia. I get that. It created a huge increase in folks buying American made batteries. For example, Concorde Battery is pumping out batteries at a record breaking pace, but lead times were very loooooong. My large quantity orders had a 26-28 week lead time. Very large orders are even longer. It is important to note that they are running at 140% of normal production rate.
I hear the same story from other battery manufacturers. This is NOT a supply chain shortage problem - it has been driven by record breaking demand. Just when Fullriver and Concorde were making some minor headway, we are now seeing yet another huge surge. Way, way beyond anything that I have ever seen.
Like many of you, I have seen this pattern before. Be ready because the "correction" is coming. I don't know how wide, how long, or how deep, but it is most certainly coming.


I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
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  • Photowhit
    Photowhit Solar Expert Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #2
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    Thanks for the insight!
    Home system 4000 watt (Evergreen) array standing, with 2 Midnite Classic Lites,  Midnite E-panel, Magnum MS4024, Prosine 1800(now backup) and Exeltech 1100(former backup...lol), 660 ah 24v Forklift battery(now 10 years old). Off grid for 20 years (if I include 8 months on a bicycle).
    - Assorted other systems, pieces and to many panels in the closet to not do more projects.
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  • Marc Kurth
    Marc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭✭
    #3
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    It would not hurt to triple/quadruple up on non-perishable important supplies that you will eventually use anyway. Living off grid, you are already way ahead of 99% of our population. Importantly, never forget that my comments are worth exactly what you paid for them!
    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,439 admin
    #4
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    Not to turn Marc's thread into a prepper thread... But having Rice and Beans (in mouse/rat proof storage) is a good place to start:

    https://modernsurvivalblog.com/survival-kitchen/rice-and-beans-a-survival-combination/

    It is not that you are going to have a 1 year supply of these foods in your home (in theory, 50 gallons of White Rice (~300 lbs) and 25 gallons of Dry Beans (150 lbs) per person.

    Of course, you need water for drinking/cooking/cleaning (~1 gallon per day). And some sort of heat to cook (and keep warm, if needed)....

    Plan for at least 3 days of shelter in place... And 2 weeks is a good place to be (at a minimum).

    https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/foodwater/prepare.html

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #5
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    And the other happy thought I hear alot is a Carrington event, solar flare, EMP  or... taking the grid out.
    It has been estimated by the US government that 90% of the people here will be dead in a year. 

    Not really sure we want to live that kind of life!
    Enjoy it now. Do not save the good wine.

     And replace the house bank before it reaches end of life offgrid !!!
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • Photowhit
    Photowhit Solar Expert Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #6
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    So most of the people here will have more insight than the average joe.

    BB. said:
    Plan for at least 3 days of shelter in place... And 2 weeks is a good place to be (at a minimum).
    Shelter in place... IS that what I do every week? I go to town about once a week...lol.

    Not sure I don't have that quantity of beans, and maybe around 200 pounds of rice, but lots of other stuff from canned tuna, oatmeal, wheat berries (might have 200 lbs) and other home canned stuff as well as having access to ponds, lakes and varmints...

    Glad Bill mentioned clean water though! I've always had ceramic water filters, which will render water safe from most things. Recently picked up a couple membrane type filters. The Lifestraw family is pretty reasonable.

    https://www.amazon.com/LifeStraw-Portable-Purifier-Emergency-Preparedness/dp/B00FM9OBQS/ref=asc_df_B00FM9OBQS/

    I do live with the big flag saying I've made some preparations (solar Array), and 5% of the country are trained killers. Doubt I really need as much as I have. A single pacifist I'll be over run by people trying to provide for their families if things get ugly.
    Home system 4000 watt (Evergreen) array standing, with 2 Midnite Classic Lites,  Midnite E-panel, Magnum MS4024, Prosine 1800(now backup) and Exeltech 1100(former backup...lol), 660 ah 24v Forklift battery(now 10 years old). Off grid for 20 years (if I include 8 months on a bicycle).
    - Assorted other systems, pieces and to many panels in the closet to not do more projects.
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #7
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    Right Photowit !  Enjoy life !  I may not be a pacifist with my long multi-generation ties to the US Navy,  but I do not want to fight it out at this age.
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,439 admin
    #8
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    There is a "Rules of Three" that gives a rough idea of "needs" (as with all simplifications, they are at best approximations):

    How long a person can survive (not die) without:
    • 3 minutes without air
    • 3 hours without shelter in a harsh environment
    • 3 days without water
    • 3 weeks without food
    If you have access to water (pond, well, etc.)--For example 2x Berkey filters and 2x 2/5/6+ gallon plastic buckets (and 2x arsenic+fluoride optional filters):

    https://www.berkeywater.com/ (Berkey systems)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjoqbONSPe8&t=109s (neat idea to mount optional arsenic+fluoride filters)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4xQOWQL-Ec (detailed assembly instructions)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW7Ub4S7JPg (LDS Prepper on ceramic vs activated carbon)
    https://ldsprepperstore.com/collections/berkey (LDS authentic Berkey filters (?))

    Berkey branded filters are not cheap... But having something for an emergency--Priceless.

    You can get spigots from Amazon, etc.... Just links to follow--I have not used these links or purchased Berkey before. Choices between storing water vs filters and some sort of decent water source. What works best for you.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • Photowhit
    Photowhit Solar Expert Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #9
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    FWIW - The Lifestraw I linked to above is rated at NSF P231

    NSF P231
    Microbiological water purifiers are certified for health and sanitation based on the recommendations of the EPA’s Task Force Report, Guide Standard and Protocol for Testing Microbiological Water Purifiers (1987) (Annex B).

    Not sure if there is an equivalent rating to the Berkey. I have a '2 bucket' home system for running my county water through. I'm pretty rural and often get discolored water in the spring after the winter ground heaving breaks some water lines. Also am amazed at all the 'stuff' that comes out when I clean the water heater every year or 2.

    Here's a link to the assorted NSF ratings.

    NSF Standards for Water Treatment Systems | NSF

    The ceramic water filters have been commonly used in 3rd world/mission work. 

    Amazing how well Zerowater filters work, here's just a dissolved solids test using the Zero water filter. Not much of a comparison. I do wish they had used the Lifestraw Family/Mission filter. I think the backpacking filter is similar to the lifestraw carry filter, while the Mission/Family filters to .02 microns.

    https://youtu.be/ja0ioX6GSz0



    Home system 4000 watt (Evergreen) array standing, with 2 Midnite Classic Lites,  Midnite E-panel, Magnum MS4024, Prosine 1800(now backup) and Exeltech 1100(former backup...lol), 660 ah 24v Forklift battery(now 10 years old). Off grid for 20 years (if I include 8 months on a bicycle).
    - Assorted other systems, pieces and to many panels in the closet to not do more projects.
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2022 #10
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    Never really have had a filter other than a Brita for 20+ years. Just rain off a metal roof and a cup of chlorine each month when it gets warm. The tanks above the house gravity feed the house. An electric pump sends it up the hill for 18,500 gallons of stored rain.

    Not too many ways to screw up rainwater. The garden uses 60% of the water.

    This house is for sale and you can email me below!



    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • Marc Kurth
    Marc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2022 #11
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    What a great place!! I know the general area and I don't think that I could ever part with it. 
    Going back to my younger days doing hydronic system design, I recall that every 2.31 ft of elevation will give you 1 psi. So are you seeing 25-30 psi at the faucets?
    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #12
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    Everything has a price, even those things that you love. If someone buys the place, we will sell it!
     I suppose there are some things that are priceless but a house is not on my list.

    I would see about 25 psi from the top tanks that are hidden,  but I have several pumps to boost up to 60 PSI for the WAF.
     It is a factor of being married..
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • Marc Kurth
    Marc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2022 #13
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    I get that, Dave. Family is at the top of my list and I do my best to balance that out.
    We moved from the expensive beach home in California to a place in the free state of Texas. Mid-continent is great because we have kids/grandkids spread out far and wide. We chose a place that is inviting but still cheap enough that we can afford to travel to see the kids/grandkids all over the country! So far they all want to come here because we can boat every month of the year.
    A picture coming into my dock (center). We are on a little "island" (with a bridge) with 66 homes.

    Life in the cheap seats:


    Saying goodnight to Wednesday with the last little bit of a very special limited run whiskey from a small distillery called Derelict Airship. Thie claim to fame is Absynthe but I just finished bottle serial number 12 of their whiskey which came from a very small run in 2017. Excellent!


    Marc
    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #14
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    Nice shots. We had your address on our go to list but that got deleted when my brother (wives) and I decided on NV.  Just easier and a 4 hour door to door drive.

    Hope you have more serial numbers besides the empty #12  ;)
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • Marc Kurth
    Marc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭✭
    #15
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    Nope, I am back to Evan Williams Single Barrel - my favorite budget bourbon. :)
    Since this is "in the weeds" - Property taxes in Texas are becoming a serious problem as Californians move in with pocketfuls of equity cash, driving property values through the roof. When I lived in CA, it was great. We could count on doubling or tripling our home value every 10-12 years, on average.
    In Texas, we have no State Personal Income tax, so the revenue is made up via a higher property tax rate, generally, around 1.5% to 2.5% depending upon locality. When I moved here from Morro Bay in 2008 with a corporate income, it was great! I traded $1,000./month state income tax for $300. in additional property tax and the houses were 1/3 the cost. Cool - I thought......... The new County Tax Appraisals for 2022 were just published...ouch!

    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #16
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    I like the smooth Canadian blends of whiskey.   Canadian Club is the budget whiskey. Texas was hard to leave off the list.

    This did not help
    Does Costco sell liquor in Texas?
    Texas Alcoholic Beverage code allows only privately owned retailers to sell liquor in the state. Publicly traded retailers such as Walmart, Costco, Walgreens and Kroger are excluded from doing so in Texas.
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • Marc Kurth
    Marc Kurth Solar Expert Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2022 #17
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    Dave, You are right. Weird rule, but you can only buy distilled spirits in a liquor store and not at all on Sunday.  But I can buy my 50 BMG rounds at Walmart........ which is a felony to even possess in the City of Los Angeles. Go figure.
    There will be a revolt here soon because of property taxes. I am forecasting a 12-16 month retroactive Prop 13 type of thing. We do have a 10% annual cap for your primary home, and a freeze at 65 years old. A lower cap has to happen for the same reason that California did it: Hyperfast increases in home/property values trigger massive tax bills.
    For example, the guy next door bought the home as a weekend lake house. His taxes were $6,800/year when he bought it 4 years ago for a bit under $400K. His new appraisal for 2022 is $1.3 million (probably accurate) and will raise his tax bill to $23,400./year because he doesn't have any exemptions. I live in the cheap seats. The high rollers across the cove are facing tax bills of $175K to $260K per year..........


    I always have more questions than answers. That's the nature of life.
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #18
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    Ouch you may be right on the revolt. Maybe the new world order meeting this week in Davos will solve all our problems ;)
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,439 admin
    #19
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    A troll acount--But still funny:



    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • Dave Angelini
    Dave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 6,746 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #20
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    Nice ! Hypocrisy is alive and well !  One of those BOT's that Elon does not like?  Take Care Bill !
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Nevada mountain area
       htps://offgridsolar1.com/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

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