Strange Question?

13»

Comments

  • SolarPoweredSolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    Re: Strange Question?
    BB. wrote: »
    I, personally, am always learning.

    -Bill

    We are "all" always learning when it comes to solar. The efficiency's of the panels change. Micro inverters have proved to be better at harvest efficiency's.
    The NEC is ever expanding with new codes for safety in the direction of solar.
    Now there is news that solar cells will be moving in the direction of nano technology increasing conversion efficiency's higher than we have ever seen before, and thin film is seeing higher conversion rates of up to 23% which was highly unexpected.
    Solar is still in its infancy stages, less than 30 years ago poly crystalline conversion rates were less than 11%, thin film and mono were un heard of until boeing/NASA started the first high conversion efficiency mono cell, and the cost of affordability was so far from grid parity that it was unreasonable.
    The way we learn is through trial and error and from other peoples mistakes regardless of fundamental application, there is always some way to do something better.
    Basic fundamentals will remain the same, however as technology advances we will always be adapting to those technologies.

    I get Caribocoots sense of humor, I get your sense of humor, some people however are not as impressionable as others on the board. If people really knew me behind the vail of anonymous character I am as well learning or giving input on what I do know, no matter how dry the info is, or could be "lacking".
  • BB.BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 32,004 admin
    Re: Strange Question?

    It is quite amazing to see a "fledgling" industry/technology meet with "old power" and new regulations....

    Sometimes is seems like we are watching the Wright Brothers dealing with the FAA Regs, Transponders, & Satalite beacons or Henry Ford's Model A with air bags, electronic ignition, On-Star, GPS, CAFE fuel mileage standards, and anti-lock brakes... And nothing can be flown/driven or sold until the "basic government requirements" are met.

    -Bill :roll:
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • theo1000theo1000 Registered Users Posts: 18
    Re: Strange Question?

    In much of the Middle, East and South of country it is impossible to get a reasonable payback period without DIY. In my state the pro installers don't even try as the cost of electricity from wind/gas/coal/nuke is so cheap it is not worth trying. For instance the lease crowd is non-existent. But in DIY mode my payback is 6-8 years! Despite this most folks I have talked to are stymied at the first step. The AHJ asks for a one-line diagram. Just my observation, purely anecdotal,etc.

    If solar is going to get anywhere around here, it is going to have to be DIY. I don't see any other way to get the price to $1.25- $1.50 a watt installed, as is required to be viable here.

    BTW I did try the easy power demo but it not usable by a DIY type. Only someone who is a professional can use it. And it is not customized for solar power either.
    Why can't pvwatts or something similar have a way to generate a simple package an AHJ will accept?
  • SolarPoweredSolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    Re: Strange Question?
    theo1000 wrote: »

    If solar is going to get anywhere around here, it is going to have to be DIY. I don't see any other way to get the price to $1.25- $1.50 a watt installed, as is required to be viable here.



    Where are you getting $1.25~$1.50?
    Renewable energy world published a year ago that grid parity is roughly $2.69 per watt, and since, the price of energy rose significantly and the national average is roughly around $2.90 a watt.
    I just built a system at my contractor rate of .99 per watt and when it was all said and done total cost per watt $2.80 per watt, account for the 30% tax credit the system is under $2.00 per watt, and the ROI occurs on or before year 6. The systems are as dirty, dirt cheap as they are going to get, it doesn't have to be DIY.

    The national average off peak per kWh .08, national average for peak kWh is .19
    California average off peak .13, California average for peak kWh is .24

    California has been in grid parity for roughly 18 months, due to micro inverter harvest efficiency that ROI has become accelerated.

    Really good article on grid parity.. However the statistics are off, they account for 2% rise in energy inflation per year, however California is now averaging 8% inflation per year, it use to be 6%, until the largest nuclear plant in California was shut down. The article also say's residential cost for build is $4.00 per watt, turn key owner owned systems are being built for under $3.40 per watt.
    http://grist.org/article/solar-costs-and-grid-prices-on-a-collision-course/
  • theo1000theo1000 Registered Users Posts: 18
    Re: Strange Question?

    Apologize if I came across too strong.
    I meant to say that's the way it was penciling out for me.
    Utility rate of 8-9 cents a kw on average and solar isolation just under 1300 kw annually per kwh installed.

    Payback period over 8 years just does not seem to attract people around here.
  • SolarPoweredSolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    Re: Strange Question?
    theo1000 wrote: »
    Utility rate of 8-9 cents a kw on average and solar isolation just under 1300 kw annually per kwh installed.

    Payback period over 8 years just does not seem to attract people around here.

    Still not under standing? If you have a customer, and their peak usage is in the summer and you build 30% over their consumption numbers at summer you should be able to spread that annualized distribution out based on feed in tarrif.
    Example: I have a client that consumes 8,779kWh from previous annualized usage. I build a system that will now produce 11,986kWh, which is over what PG&E allows to their rule according to the new senate bill for NEM the system size cannot exceed 110% of last years previous annualized usage. So to beat that rule you have to include the next years estimated numbers being larger which we do buy buying an electric car, which then the consumption for next year will beat annualized production by 5%...... It's an electric car, so do the math compared to at the price at the pump so the return over all is accelerated from the savings since their is no fossil fuel purchase.

    You can also be proactive in the manner of conservation. If you have horrible isolation numbers you look into conservation, and restructuring a home to become more efficient so the isolation numbers make sense. Get rid of electric heaters, electric cloths dreyers, electric stove's, electric ovens, and electric water heaters. There is a great deal of importance to that restructuring because those are the highest kWh consumption devices you can have in your home. So to beat isolation, you have to beat the rate of consumption.

    Solar isolation is 1 part to the entire grid parity pie, because there are way to many other variables involved in how a consumer uses that energy. The biggest fact is real estate. If you have the real estate you build as big as you can regardless of the DC watts, so that atleast your AC production is greater than or equal to last years previous consumption numbers. Again the rules of grid parity have changed. We now have vehicles that use electricity so now you compare to the cost of vehicles that consume fuel. Once you factor in that energy value solar is much more progressive in accelerating a return on investment.
  • solar_davesolar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,382 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Strange Question?
    Still not under standing? If you have a customer, and their peak usage is in the summer and you build 30% over their consumption numbers at summer you should be able to spread that annualized distribution out based on feed in tarrif.
    Example: I have a client that consumes 8,779kWh from previous annualized usage. I build a system that will now produce 11,986kWh, which is over what PG&E allows to their rule according to the new senate bill for NEM the system size cannot exceed 110% of last years previous annualized usage. So to beat that rule you have to include the next years estimated numbers being larger which we do buy buying an electric car, which then the consumption for next year will beat annualized production by 5%...... It's an electric car, so do the math compared to at the price at the pump so the return over all is accelerated from the savings since their is no fossil fuel purchase.

    Solar isolation is 1 part to the entire grid parity pie, because there are way to many other variables involved in how a consumer uses that energy. The biggest fact is real estate. If you have the real estate you build as big as you can regardless of the DC watts, so that atleast your AC production is greater than or equal to last years previous consumption numbers. Again the rules of grid parity have changed. We now have vehicles that use electricity so now you compare to the cost of vehicles that consume fuel. Once you factor in that energy value solar is much more progressive in accelerating a return on haw a consumer now spends their money.

    I like how you think on the electric car! We have a pair of Chevy Volts and did much the same thing except we built our estimate against our pre-conservation consumption and then as we added the cars we also did more conservation to get to the point of still creating an excess in our net metering.

    Of course the issue here is the way TOU effects the kWh bank so consumption needs to be load shifted to on peak as much as possible. We still over produced last year on the on-peak consumption by 1604 kWh for a total payback of about $46. We still buy some off peak generation, but as long as our total production stays ahead of the total consumption throughout the year we don't run into transmission fees. The off-peak generation is about $0.02253 a kWh. What is a real screw job here is the summer on-peak generation is $0.14375 but the compensation from the utility for generation on-peak is $0.0289. Hence our endeavors to time shift our loads.

    Think they make some money on that one?

    In 3 years our total gasoline consumption has been about 65 gallons between the 2 cars. Best of both worlds, solar powered cars and no range anxiety. We have no issues driving anywhere we desire.
  • SolarPoweredSolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    Re: Strange Question?
    solar_dave wrote: »
    In 3 years our total gasoline consumption has been about 65 gallons between the 2 cars. Best of both worlds, solar powered cars and no range anxiety. We have no issues driving anywhere we desire.

    Yeah this client of mine bought a TESLA S when I did a mild estimate the client when converting fuel prices to electricity was saving over $1300 a year, or $108.33 per month . Just doing a rough 3 day commissioning on his system exceeded estimates by 14%, not accounting for cloudy days yet, I believe the system will annualize 11% higher production than based off the PVwatts estimate.

    I myself am looking at the The New Ford Fusion Energi, slightly out beats the volt, price is a little steeper than the volt though, both are great cars and economical for those that can't buy a TESLA :(
  • solar_davesolar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,382 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Strange Question?
    Yeah this client of mine bought a TESLA S when I did a mild estimate the client when converting fuel prices to electricity was saving over $1300 a year, or $108.33 per month . Just doing a rough 3 day commissioning on his system exceeded estimates by 14%, not accounting for cloudy days yet, I believe the system will annualize 11% higher production than based off the PVwatts estimate.

    I myself am looking at the The New Ford Fusion Energi, slightly out beats the volt, price is a little steeper than the volt though, both are great cars and economical for those that can't buy a TESLA :(

    Ford battery range is less than the Volt. We do most of our driving local with battery only and have a pair of L2 chargers in the garage. For instance this morning the wife needed to pick up some clothes for the weasels (grand kids) from their house about 10 miles from here, we started with a 45 mile range estimate. We then hit every Estate sale on the way back, 6 at least. Slapped the L2 on it and it was back over 30 miles when we went to get them from school @ noon (early day). Back on the L2 and we will have a full charge in about 90 minutes, have lunch and off to the Asian market for veggy fix to do stir fry tonight. The L2 charger makes all the difference. I think my most electric miles in a day is close to 100. Normally a drained battery to full charge takes about 4 hours.

    http://www.voltstats.net/Stats/Details/323 <-- Onstar data from the car.
Sign In or Register to comment.