More data that it's the Sun that does it

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  • CorbinKale
    CorbinKale Registered Users Posts: 21 ✭
    #62
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    drees wrote: »
    As I said before just a few posts ago, claims of global cooling in the 70s were the result of media hype and not substantiated by science or had any sort of scientific consensus. This is vastly different from the situation regarding global warming.

    How many times must I debunk this myth?

    Considering opinions that differ from yours as 'myth' is a great way to ensure a lifetime of debunking. Good luck with your crusade.
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  • drees
    drees Solar Expert Posts: 482 ✭✭✭
    #63
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    CorbinKale wrote: »
    Considering opinions that differ from yours as 'myth' is a great way to ensure a lifetime of debunking. Good luck with your crusade.
    The facts remain that global cooling in the '70s was hyped by a few vocal scientists who caught the ear of the media who fell hook, line and sinker for it. I have yet to see any facts that show otherwise. If you have some - I would like to see and would be happy to admit I was wrong.

    Until then, I will continue to debunk the '70s global cooling myth when used as a so-call argument against anthropogenic global warming every time it is brought up.
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  • drees
    drees Solar Expert Posts: 482 ✭✭✭
    #64
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    dwh wrote: »
    As I recall, Crighton was specifically referring to a report that came out in 1988 which more or less ignited the current global warming (crisis/craze/scare/hoopla/awareness (take your pick)) and the scientist who authored that report. He was illustrating how that individual had more or less recanted under peer pressure from the scientific community (that was one of the real-world facts, not one of the parts of the fictional story).
    You must be referring to NASA scientist James Hansen and the statements he made to Congress that year.

    From what I can see, Hansen's predictions have so far shown to be correct. Any specific reference to any "recants" would be appreciated.
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  • Chuck46
    Chuck46 Solar Expert Posts: 95 ✭
    #65
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    drees first off it was not presented as evidence against global climate change (cooling or warming). It was to make the point that people are intulectually and morally dishonest and will argue anything from their point of fact, so please continue.
    Chuck
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  • dwh
    dwh Solar Expert Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭
    #66
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    drees wrote: »
    You must be referring to NASA scientist James Hansen and the statements he made to Congress that year.

    From what I can see, Hansen's predictions have so far shown to be correct. Any specific reference to any "recants" would be appreciated.


    Could be, but I don't recall that Crighton was referring to congressional testimony. And I do recall that he specifically referred to "10 years later". As I remember it, he referred to a report from 88 and the updated version of that report from 98.

    I'll check my local library to see if they have a copy of the book so I can look it up.
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  • AntronX
    AntronX Solar Expert Posts: 462 ✭✭
    #67
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    dwh wrote: »
    Could be, but I don't recall that Crighton was referring to congressional testimony. And I do recall that he specifically referred to "10 years later". As I remember it, he referred to a report from 88 and the updated version of that report from 98...

    Yes, that 1988 report was by James Hansen. He is the guy who brought global warming into public spotlight. Here is the article by him responding to Crichton’s criticism. Crichton claimed that Hansen's 1988 report promised global warming that was 300% higher than what was later observed. In reality, Hansen's prediction had 3 different scenarios: A, B and C. Scenario A predicted what would happen if green house gas emissions would be very high. Scenario B was to be most plausible prediction, according to Hansen himself back then. And scenario C predicted that emissions would cease increasing after year 2000. But Crichton, instead of studying the literature himself, decided to listen to Pat Michaels - who took Hansen's graph, erased scenario's B and C, and went around falsely presenting only scenario A in public.
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  • dwh
    dwh Solar Expert Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭
    #68
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    AntronX wrote: »
    Yes, that 1988 report was by James Hansen. He is the guy who brought global warming into public spotlight. Here is the article by him responding to Crichton’s criticism. Crichton claimed that Hansen's 1988 report promised global warming that was 300% higher than what was later observed. In reality, Hansen's prediction had 3 different scenarios: A, B and C. Scenario A predicted what would happen if green house gas emissions would be very high. Scenario B was to be most plausible prediction, according to Hansen himself back then. And scenario C predicted that emissions would cease increasing after year 2000. But Crichton, instead of studying the literature himself, decided to listen to Pat Michaels - who took Hansen's graph, erased scenario's B and C, and went around falsely presenting only scenario A in public.


    If you say so. I checked the local library and they have a copy of the book, but it's listed as checked out. I could reserve one from a different branch but it would take some days to arrive so I didn't bother.
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  • AntronX
    AntronX Solar Expert Posts: 462 ✭✭
    #69
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    dwh wrote: »
    If you say so...
    It's not me saying that, I just summarized the link I provided. Did you read the article by clicking on underlined blue text in my reply? Oh, and don't bother looking for that book, read this one instead(don't mind the apocalyptic title).
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  • dwh
    dwh Solar Expert Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭
    #70
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    AntronX wrote: »
    It's not me saying that, I just summarized the link I provided. Did you read the article by clicking on underlined blue text in my reply? Oh, and don't bother looking for that book, read this one instead(don't mind the apocalyptic title).


    Um.

    Did you just try to teach me how to click a freaking HTML link? If so, then I am justifiably outraged by your patronizing and condescending impertinence.

    The biggest web server cluster I ever built had a dozen Sun 220Rs running Apache behind an Alteon load balancer in front of a pair of Sun 440s behind a Radware balancer and running Oracle. That rig handled > 1 billion page views (not hits) per month.

    The biggest web server cluster I ever worked on, was the one at eToys where my ex consulting partner was working as their cluster manager. He called me in to consult (help build) that system. That rig was 112 front end Apache boxes in front a second tier of 32 doing database query aggregation back to a set of 4 8-processor IBM NUMA boxes running Oracle.

    I think I can figure out how to click a @#$ link.
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  • AntronX
    AntronX Solar Expert Posts: 462 ✭✭
    #71
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    dwh wrote: »
    ...Did you just try to teach me how to click a freaking HTML link?...

    Sheesh, looks like you got a hair trigger. It was just a question. :confused:
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  • niel
    niel Solar Expert Posts: 10,300 ✭✭✭✭
    #72
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    guys, if you intend to still go after one another we can take steps here like locking the thread or better yet we can give a time out like a 3 day ban.:roll: consider it a warning. we don't want bad blood between members if possible.
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  • Kamala
    Kamala Solar Expert Posts: 452 ✭✭
    #73
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    niel wrote: »
    ... bad blood between members ...

    Sadly, such is often the result of attempting to debate such a highly charged topic. I have found this thread entertaining but cannot bring myself to participate directly for precisely this reason.

    K
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #74
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    Kamala wrote: »
    Sadly, such is often the result of attempting to debate such a highly charged topic. I have found this thread entertaining but cannot bring myself to participate directly for precisely this reason.

    K

    Moi aussi.

    It would be best if such threads were stopped before they go "political critical".

    And if that starts another argument ...
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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,613 admin
    #75
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    Which it will...

    -Bill :-)
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • Kamala
    Kamala Solar Expert Posts: 452 ✭✭
    #76
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    Moi aussi.

    French!? What's the deal here??? If you have to obfuscate you're opinions in esoteric alien homilies, I'd rather you kept them to yourself!! ;)
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    It would be best if such threads were stopped before they go "political critical".

    I'm surprised it went on as long as it did/has. Seriously, I was fascinated. Kinda like watching a train wreck. But I was exposed to information I otherwise would not have been and there is probably some value in that. I do have my opinion and, as expected, it remains unchanged.
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    And if that starts another argument ...

    Guess BB. was right... :roll:
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #77
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    Hey Big K;

    We Canadians are required to use French from time to time. Otherwise they set us adrift on an ice floe in the Arctic (which is all ours!) with a hungry polar bear.

    As for your other comments ... you just ordered yourself a whole Winter full of cold Canadian air! :p

    Enjoy your camping this Summer, ol' bean. :D
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  • mike95490
    mike95490 Solar Expert Posts: 9,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #78
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    ..Otherwise they set us adrift on an ice floe in the Arctic...

    Ha ! there is still ice
    Powerfab top of pole PV mount | Listeroid 6/1 w/st5 gen head | XW6048 inverter/chgr | Iota 48V/15A charger | Morningstar 60A MPPT | 48V, 800A NiFe Battery (in series)| 15, Evergreen 205w "12V" PV array on pole | Midnight ePanel | Grundfos 10 SO5-9 with 3 wire Franklin Electric motor (1/2hp 240V 1ph ) on a timer for 3 hr noontime run - Runs off PV ||
    || Midnight Classic 200 | 10, Evergreen 200w in a 160VOC array ||
    || VEC1093 12V Charger | Maha C401 aa/aaa Charger | SureSine | Sunsaver MPPT 15A

    solar: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Solar
    gen: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Lister ,

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  • solar_dave
    solar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭✭
    #79
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    mike90045 wrote: »
    Ha ! there is still ice

    Just a bit thiner. :p
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  • icarus
    icarus Solar Expert Posts: 5,436 ✭✭✭✭
    #80
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    Herein lies the danger of crossing political lines in this forum,, but I won't comment further for fear that I will be accused of "moderating", LOL.

    On the subject of methane, one of the big potential (and under understood by the masses) of climate change, is as permafrost melts, there will be tremendous releases of methane which has the potential of becoming a feed back loop, methane begetting more warming, begetting more methane release, begetting more warming, quickly passing the point where nothing humans can do could counteract it.

    Additionally, a small rise in sea water temps has the potential to release methane in sea water. (I confess I don't know the details, as this comes from a conversation with a geology professor in Scotland). His fear is that if certain sea waters become X degrees warmer, methane becomes gaseous and will then release to the atmosphere in huge uncontrollable quantities.

    Back to being quiet on the issue,

    Tony
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  • dwh
    dwh Solar Expert Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭
    #81
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    Actually, it had nothing whatsoever to do with the topic.

    I took offense at being spoken to like a child...TWICE.

    That's a sure-fire way to tick me off - whether the topic is politics, axle grease or which ice cream flavor is best.

    (Mint Chocolate Chip.) :D
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  • Kamala
    Kamala Solar Expert Posts: 452 ✭✭
    #82
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    ... you just ordered yourself a whole Winter full of cold Canadian air! ...

    Bring it on bro'. I'm countin' on it. And thanks!

    Aaah... feels goood! 8)

    K
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  • niel
    niel Solar Expert Posts: 10,300 ✭✭✭✭
    #83
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    "As for your other comments ... you just ordered yourself a whole Winter full of cold Canadian air! :p"

    coot,
    would it be possible if you can delay the delivery until next summer so we can shut down our air conditioners?:p
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #84
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    Cold air shipments are handled by the Ministry of Environment. They only ship in Winter when Parliament is not sitting. Something to do with a need to reduce the surplus hot air production in
    Ottawa.

    Meanwhile, you'll have to make due with this: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100810/world/eu_ice_island

    Niel; didn't we send you a whole lot of snow last year? You should have saved it for Summer! Remember ice houses? No, probably not; you sophisticated Americans have been using refrigerators since the 1930's. :p

    If we're having ice cream, I'd like chocolate-marshmallow. Can't eat it anymore, but I'd like it. :cry:
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  • niel
    niel Solar Expert Posts: 10,300 ✭✭✭✭
    #85
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it

    storage fees are outrageous here so we could'nt save it. i guess we'll have to cancel the order.:p

    "Remember ice houses? No, probably not; you sophisticated Americans have been using refrigerators since the 1930's. :p"

    as a matter of fact i do remember them as i worked in one for a few years8), at least until my boss decided to sell the business and moved to phoenix. i even remember my accidentally dropping 300lbs of block ice on my left foot. i toughed it out and went to the hospital after work where they relieved the pressure behind my toenail and then sent me home with instructions to put ice on it.:grr

    yes, it's off the subject matter so i'll quit, but it's certainly better than what we were seeing.:-)
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  • mikeo
    mikeo Solar Expert Posts: 386 ✭✭✭
    #86
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    As for your other comments ... you just ordered yourself a whole Winter full of cold Canadian air! "
    You did that last winter and we southern people retaliated by sending a bunch of hot air up north this summer.
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #87
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    mikeo wrote: »
    You did that last winter and we southern people retaliated by sending a bunch of hot air up north this summer.

    And there you have climate change in a nutshell: increasingly severe weather of all types all over the world.

    But to prove it, this trend would have to continue for an extended period of time; extrapolating long-term conditions from short-term data is an unsound scientific process.

    Trouble is (given that the effects are irreversible); do we want to wait for the long-term results or err on the side of caution?

    If there will be climate change/global warming and we act on the assumption now, we're safe. If we act and it's "not real", what's the worst that could happen? The "wrong" people make money? That isn't happening now?

    If we take the other route and deny its potential and it turns out there isn't any, then no loss, no gain. But if we're wrong ... oh yes: the whole world dies and takes us with it.

    I'll take erring on the side of caution any day over the ultimate doomsday proposition. :roll:

    But I do not like the contention that part of the solution is things like "cap and trade" or "carbon tax". This is a scientific problem that can not be solved by socio-political economic engineering. Remember: we already have a carbon tax here in BC. It does nothing for the environment, but it sure is fueling inflation. (Couldn't resist the pun.)

    I still want ice cream. :D
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  • mikeo
    mikeo Solar Expert Posts: 386 ✭✭✭
    #88
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    I'll take erring on the side of caution any day over the ultimate doomsday proposition.
    Don't you know there are a lot of people just praying for Armageddon so they can all go to heaven and the rest of can go to WELL, you know what I mean. They just don't care, but what does any of this have do do with SOLAR except storms damage solar panels, heat degrades output and cold covers them with ice and snow degrading output. We "little people" can only vote for the lesser of two evils and hope for the best. The main thing is that we don't get too upset with what we can't control and do the best with what we can. I personally believe that energy efficiency is in our personal best personal interest as it is a positive effect on our pocket book. SO I am trying to sell as many of my friends as I can on the virtue of living simply, saving energy and diversifying their portfolio by buying some of my solar panels and batteries just in case.
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  • drees
    drees Solar Expert Posts: 482 ✭✭✭
    #89
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    But I do not like the contention that part of the solution is things like "cap and trade" or "carbon tax". This is a scientific problem that can not be solved by socio-political economic engineering. Remember: we already have a carbon tax here in BC. It does nothing for the environment, but it sure is fueling inflation. (Couldn't resist the pun.)
    From a purely economics point of view - the most efficient way to discourage the effects of using a certain product is to increase the price of of that product.

    And since the free market does not price externalities at all, all carbon based fuels are currently under priced.

    If you've got a better idea - let's hear it.
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  • solar_dave
    solar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭✭
    #90
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    drees wrote: »
    From a purely economics point of view - the most efficient way to discourage the effects of using a certain product is to increase the price of of that product.

    And since the free market does not price externalities at all, all carbon based fuels are currently under priced.

    If you've got a better idea - let's hear it.

    This has gone full circle, carbon based fuels are not really priced against actual cost. War, pollution and degradation of the environment all have a price. We just don't pay that at the pump or electric meter.
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #91
    Re: More data that it's the Sun that does it
    drees wrote: »
    From a purely economics point of view - the most efficient way to discourage the effects of using a certain product is to increase the price of of that product.

    And since the free market does not price externalities at all, all carbon based fuels are currently under priced.

    If you've got a better idea - let's hear it.

    Glad you asked. :D

    The problem with the carbon tax is that it taxes use, not waste. Therefor it gives no incentive to conserve; it just hikes prices all around. Ours was supposed to be "revenue neutral" meaning the extra $ on fuel would be offset by reductions in other taxes. Unfortunately they ignored the costs of administering the tax and the off-sets are only applicable to individuals. Net result: everything costs more and no one is using any less fuel. Keep in mind that when they applied the first two cents per litre gasoline was over $1.40/L here. The tax is now up to four cents, and gasoline is down to $1.18/L. So how effective has it been? Not effective at all.

    Neither was changing to HST which put 7% tax on energy conserving items such as insulation where there was none before. Sensible energy policy? Not in this Province.

    In the past we've had policies that did make sense. These were funded and administered mainly through BC Hydro, or Government-monopoly electric utility. At the time they realized that investing in conservation was as good and sometimes better than investing in new production. They've since decided voting themselves pay raises is better, and we now import electric instead of exporting it (largely due to unbridled growth in population with the necessary planning to support same).

    They will soon be adding net metering to the system. Technically they allow grid-tie, but with power going for ten cents per kwh it's not very practical. There are no rebates or subsidies to help alleviate the capital outlay.

    Energy companies are in business to make money. When they do, so does the government (including illegally charging 7% GST on other fuel taxes up here). There is no incentive for either to promote conservation or alternative/renewable energy sources. They only do it occasionally and half-heartedly as a sop to the socially responsible voters.

    All we can do is try to digest the massive amounts of seemingly contradictory information thrown at us each day by an over-hyping news media and make our personal choices accordingly. That would include which candidate to vote for. It's not automatic either: the Green Party of Canada has publicly stated they would "tax anything that produces carbon dioxide". This makes them the first political party in history to admit they plan to tax breathing! :roll:

    We need consistent policies that promote conservation and penalize waste. But all we get is whatever the latest poll tells them the voters will go for. Let's call it "fadonomics".
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