Tesla's new truck - my thoughts.

softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,504 ✭✭✭✭
A large percentage of it will be built in China while receiving a lot of government funds.
A Zamboni ice rink machine looks a little better. 
It will costs significantly more than currently advertised.
It will run way behind schedule. 
In the meantime I will hurt the Big 3 - especially Ford. 
People who really need a truck to do truck duties, farmers and ranchers and trailer haulers, will largely stay away. 
Government entities may be inclined to buy it. 

So why are so many slapping Tesla on the back now? They made a simple prototype with "bulletproof windows" - that shattered on impact. 

I say that you lose government funding when you outsource too much to China. We made China and have an economy built on debt to show for it. 
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Comments

  • WaterWheelWaterWheel Registered Users Posts: 337 ✭✭✭
    I have to agree with most of Softdown's thoughts on the new Tesla truck, it is truly hideious looking and as someone who uses a truck daily for work around the property the weird bed design of the Tesla truck isn't very practical.     

    But I seriously doubt that a Tesla truck will hurt more traditional truck manufacturers.     I'm not so sure that the US made China what it is today but I do agree that we shouldn't subsidize any product that outsources many of it's parts from outside the US.

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  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    AFAIK, the 25% US tarrif on light truck imports would apply to a Tesla pickup largely sourced in China (or almost anywhere else).  Mexico, maybe.

    IMHO, the market for this, if it exists at all to any significant extent, won't likely be "real" truck users (farmers, trades, etc).  It might be the urban cowboy types who currently buy (lots of) pickups with lots of bling-y options.  They rarely haul more than their butts, but want to be able to say they can.  Even that I'm doubtful of. 

    There might be a use case for an electric truck as a fleet vehicle, but that's a low margin, volume segment.  Radical designs are probably going to be unappealing to that buyer ("nobody gets fired if we buy IBM").  If I was a green mandated fleet mgr, I'd be considering hydrogen fuel cells, or a quick change battery pack recharge solution first.
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  • icarusicarus Solar Expert Posts: 5,433 ✭✭✭✭
    What percentage of Light trucks are used by “real” truck users...Farmers/trades etc?  My guess was under half... is as wrong.

    ” truck owners are slightly less likely than owners of other categories to use their vehicle as primary transport (83% vs. 95%), limiting the miles and gallons. And they might also protest that trucks provide capabilities that other vehicles lack. But, as it turns out, a significant portion of truck owners never use their trucks for these capabilities. According to Edwards’ data, 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less. And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.” (Sic)

    https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-size-pickup-truck-you-need-a-cowboy-costume

    As a semi retired contractor, I always owned a pick up, usually an 2 wd F250 with a 6 cyl and lumber rack.  I down sized to a Toyota HiLux with a rack, and now have none.  I realized if I need more than a stick or two of lumber or pipe, the supply house will deliver for nearly nothing, usually within a hot or two.  I do keep a tilt bed, flat deck trailer around (tow behind my Subaru) to haul stuff a few times a year.

    The idea that future Tesla truck owners are going to “use their trucks” is no more absurd than those who drive the average tricked out Silverado or Ram truck. Now if Toyota would build a Hylux hybrid or plug in I sure would consider it.  

    Icarus
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,504 ✭✭✭✭
    The reason I think Tesla's truck will hurt the sales of the Big Three is because our young have been brainwashed into thinking that electric cars are so environmentally friendly. They will exert pressure on their folks to help "save the environment". They seriously tend to believe that Big Oil is evil. That socialism is also the answer, perhaps it is for those lacking critical thinking skills. 

    Don't believe me? Spend a day at reddit.com. The average board IQ has seemingly dropped every year since ~2010. It is now mostly mind numbing. Reddit used to demonstrate a pretty bright audience. 
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  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm inclined to believe the old saw "if you don't lean left when you're young, you have no heart.  If you don't lean right when you're older, you have no brain".  Not sure if it's more pronounced now, but it's nothing new.

    Those numbers on truck use are surprising, but I guess they shouldn't be.  I considered buying one when doing a lot of hauling for cabin reno, but the numbers didn't add up.  Renting a trailer or truck fit for purpose generally worked out better, and much cheaper. 

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  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,504 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2019 #7
    Estragon said:
    I'm inclined to believe the old saw "if you don't lean left when you're young, you have no heart.  If you don't lean right when you're older, you have no brain".  Not sure if it's more pronounced now, but it's nothing new.

    Those numbers on truck use are surprising, but I guess they shouldn't be.  I considered buying one when doing a lot of hauling for cabin reno, but the numbers didn't add up.  Renting a trailer or truck fit for purpose generally worked out better, and much cheaper. 

    Churchill said that. What is unique today is both the militancy, the delicacy, and the fascinating combination. We have a lot of pissed off snowflakes that employers are quite reluctant to take under their wing. Events like this used to be unheard of: https://needtoknow.news/2019/11/arizona-former-staffer-for-radical-democrat-congressman-gets-just-12-days-in-jail-for-attacking-a-trump-supporter-resulting-in-permanent-injury/

    I find the 5 1/2' truck bed to be of interest. I can see 6 1/2' being a decent choice. I have never been glad about the size of my auction bought 5 1/2' bed. Didn't even know they existed. 
    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not sure about a 51/2' bed.  I can probably fit mostly the same loads in the back of my 4cyl baby SUV, and keep them clean & dry.  Maybe if I was hauling stuff like gravel regularly.
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  • bill von novakbill von novak Solar Expert Posts: 891 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2019 #9
    softdown said:
    A large percentage of it will be built in China while receiving a lot of government funds.
    A Zamboni ice rink machine looks a little better. 
    It will costs significantly more than currently advertised.
    It will run way behind schedule. 
    In the meantime I will hurt the Big 3 - especially Ford. 
    People who really need a truck to do truck duties, farmers and ranchers and trailer haulers, will largely stay away. 

    I suspect most people who buy it will buy it to make a statement (as truck buyers do now, for the most part.)
    Ranchers and farmers will stay away because they are more familiar with other vehicles.  This will remain true for a few years until they are more common.
    People who really need the towing capacity will buy it, as will preppers and environmentalists.   Too early to say if the added durability will be a selling point or not, but it may be - and people who use their trucks hard (off-road, overgrown trails) may gravitate towards it for that reason.
  • icarusicarus Solar Expert Posts: 5,433 ✭✭✭✭
    While it makes for a pithy quote, there is no record of Winston Churchill actually saying (or writing)that (or something similar).

    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/quotes-falsely-attributed/


  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,504 ✭✭✭✭
    icarus said:
    While it makes for a pithy quote, there is no record of Winston Churchill actually saying (or writing)that (or something similar).

    https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/quotes-falsely-attributed/



    Perhaps - it was widely attributed to Churchill until quite recently. Due to the hyper activities of the Ministry of Truth (Ministry of Propaganda in reality) - teamed up with the equally active SJWs at Google, I may remain skeptical about recent "changes to historical timelines."

    I seem to remember that Churchhill quote back in university years. 

    Perhaps we need a Google Edition - BT - before Trump, now all we seem to have is Google AT - after Trump. 

    Arguing that today's Google is more accurate than yesterdays Google may be a tenuous argument. 

    First Bank:16 180 watt Grape Solar with  FM80 controller and 3648 Inverter....Fullriver 8D AGM solar batteries. Second Bank/MacGyver Special: 10 165(?) watt BP Solar with Renogy MPPT 40A controller/ and Xantrex C-35 PWM controller/ and Morningstar PWM controller...Cotek 24V PSW inverter....forklift and diesel locomotive batteries
  • icarusicarus Solar Expert Posts: 5,433 ✭✭✭✭
    “Most people are saying...everybody is saying...I hear people saying”.....etc. etc etc. don’t make it so.
  • softdownsoftdown Solar Expert Posts: 3,504 ✭✭✭✭
    icarus said:
    “Most people are saying...everybody is saying...I hear people saying”.....etc. etc etc. don’t make it so.
    True enough. Yet the fact that surveillance valley's biggest arm is actively massaging what is available does make a powerful statement about our state of affairs. Yet there is always hope to be found somewhere: 
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/06/technology/gdpr-european-privacy-law.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/28/technology/california-online-privacy-law.html


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  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    icarus said:
    “Most people are saying...everybody is saying...I hear people saying”.....etc. etc etc. don’t make it so.
    In a sense, it really does.  All of history is simulacrum.  Even having lived through and been deeply involved in a particular event or situation, my history will be incomplete and highly likely to differ from others involved.  The "true" history of the event will depend on the veracity of later accounts of it, if and to the extent those accounts survive.

    I don't know if Churchill said it or not.  It could have been the kid stocking shelves at his local mini-mart, but the kid not being known for pithy quotes, it got falsely attributed.
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  • icarusicarus Solar Expert Posts: 5,433 ✭✭✭✭
    Estragon,

    I agree that “history” per se is an amalgam of events.  That indeed there is no “one true history”.  That said, in order to have civil society and a civil dialogue in this society, the ability to agree on a basic set of facts is essential.  Now I’m certainly not saying that it is essential that we “know” if Churchill said something or not, but to simply dismiss evidence when presented because it conflicts with our world view even on the little things, just leads to being willing to accept “non factual” things as true.  

    Certain things are ultimately colored by opinion.  “It is a nice day today”.  We could certainly argue if this is true based on our opinions of “nice day”.  Too hot, too cold, too wet too dry etc.  What we can’t argue is the facts of the day.  Sunrise and set times based on generally accepted time zones, temperatures base on generally accepted metric, precipitation, based on accepted metrics etc.  

    In the quote in point, if there is no evidence that Churchill actually made the quote, it might be certainly acceptable to say that this is the type of quote, with the tenor and tone that Churchill could have made.  

    All I’m suggesting is that the need to be accurate is important lest we create a society that can’t (or won’t) discern fact from fiction...unless it is already too late.  My complaint with much “political” dialogue is that even when confronted with demonstrable evidence that the “facts” that some people accept are true, not only won’t some people believe it, but they believe that that demonstrable facts have some how been “faked”, without providing a shred of evidence to back up their opinion.   

    Windmill cause cancer?  Show me the evidence.  Show me in context the reduction in cancer deaths as a result of less coal emissions etc.  Facts are complicated.

    Icarus
  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 4,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Facts are definitely complicated.  The best definition of a fact I've come across was in my kids theory of knowledge class; "a justified true belief", relying on no single objective reality.  The justification can probably never be absolute, but evidence and experiment adds to or diminishes the justification, in turn leading to changes in the belief and the "fact" over time.

    Political dialog does seem to be particularly prone to weak justification, resulting in a wide variety of "facts".  Fox news and MSNBC happen to be next to each other on my TV channels.  Sometimes if I can't sleep I'll flip back and forth.  The alternating "facts" can be entertaining.

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