New Solar Panel Coming Soon

wilsonbh
wilsonbh Solar Expert Posts: 57 ✭✭✭
in General Solar Power Topics #1
A friend of mine told me about a new solar panel about to be marketed in the USA (already sold in Europe) that is 1/10th the cost of the existing panels. A 200w panel would cost about $225.

Has anyone heard of this?

Would make solar electric reachable by anyone that wanted it, without needing rebates.

Billy
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Comments

  • System2
    System2 Posts: 6,290 admin
    #2
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    Time will tell, but right now, to me, sounds like pie in the sky. If it exists, there must be some huge disadvantage, like perhaps a 5 year life span, or some such thing, otherwise they would never drop their price that low, they would have no need to. And if they don't need to, they won't.
    Wayne
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  • Telco
    Telco Solar Expert Posts: 201 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #3
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    I don't know about that. There's a lot more people make money by "stacking them deep and selling them cheap" than by selling a few overpriced items. With high volume selling, a penny increase can make far more than a 20 dollar increase with low volume selling, and a penny savings in materials can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars in savings for the high volume guy.
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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,613 admin
    #4
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    NanoSolar (thread discussing them here) is who you may be typing about... They are a US/German mfg. company, and their first panels are to ship (shipping now?) to Europe for $1.00 per watt (200 watt panel = $200)...

    In the grand scheme of things--a $1.00 per watt panel is nice, but we still need to see how well it can last over time. These panels tend to be less efficient, so solar panels need to be larger for the same power output... More area, more structure, more wiring, more handling costs...

    Also, if you are installing a grid tied system in the US... Roughly $10 per watt installed (retail), and $5.00 per watt of that is solar panel. So, a $4 reduction reduces the retail install cost to $6.00 per watt. A nice reduction, but only a 40% reduction in costs, not 80% reduction.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • nigtomdaw
    nigtomdaw Solar Expert Posts: 705 ✭✭
    #5
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    You get what you pay for, my Dad used to say.

    Crystalline Silicon.

    Market Proven, 20-25 yr life Span, Lowest m2 area versus power output !

    New Guy,

    No track record, no life span , m2 to output unknown.

    If the new guy could generally challenge on the above three at any close level he could swipe the market from Crystalline Silicon by undercutting them by say only 30%.

    If its true good to be true it usually is ! As Mam used to say.

    Love to be proved wrong though :blush:
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  • boB
    boB Solar Expert Posts: 1,032 ✭✭✭✭
    #6
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon
    nigtomdaw wrote: »
    You get what you pay for, my Dad used to say.

    Crystalline Silicon.
    Market Proven, 20-25 yr life Span, Lowest m2 area versus power output !
    New Guy,
    No track record, no life span , m2 to output unknown.
    If the new guy could generally challenge on the above three at any close level he could swipe the market from Crystalline Silicon by undercutting them by say only 30%.
    If its true good to be true it usually is ! As Mam used to say.
    Love to be proved wrong though :blush:

    Yep, all of this I think... But is it really Crystaline Silicon ? I thought it was some kind of amorphous, but I don't know.

    You can not see any specifications for these new nanosolars yet either. They're using some kind of secret sauce. I think (or heard a rumour)they may also be very low efficiency so would require more space to get the same amount of power as you'd get from regular 4 dollar a Watt panels.
    Still, it would be nice to see $1.00 a Watt.

    boB
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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,613 admin
    #7
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    The NanoSolar is specifically "Thin Film" printed on a metal substrate and not crystalline silicon...

    I believe that nigtomdaw was listing the "knowns" for crystalline silicon vs the "new guy:, yet unproven, promises of NanoSolar and other thin film / amorphous (non-crystalline) solar panels.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • Telco
    Telco Solar Expert Posts: 201 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #8
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    If it makes anyone feel any better about Nanosolar, they are also currently marketing to large installations like utilities. Large companies like utilities usually have a QA assurance process that must be passed before they will buy anything that costs a lot, so if Nanosolar is selling large scale installations to corporations, then they must be meeting a certain level of quality and dependability. A utility is not going to go with a cheaper solution that will cause them to not be able to reliably provide X amount of power per day because that will not only cause them to not make money from power, it will cost them money in repair costs and give them a black eye in the media. I feel pretty good about Nanosolar, and am looking forward to their offerings to the common folk.
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  • Solar Guppy
    Solar Guppy Solar Expert Posts: 1,989 ✭✭✭
    #9
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    Well some facts

    Nano solar has shipped 4 panels to date

    Two Contracts has been awarded, which costs will be covered by either the America Government ( Department of Energy ) or the German goverment via the kWr tarrif/payment program there

    The only pictures of a real array 11 panels is the only shown working panels in the world.

    Everything at this point is marketing, which has been sucessfull as they raised from investors 100 million to build there first plant in San Jose CA.

    History is littered with hype and promises of the next best thing, RE is especially true as thing need to last decades not months.

    We have no documented proof these things can be built, what they will cost, how they perform, how they will last and typically it takes about a decade for this to be done ... we still wonder about the Sanyo HIT, its more than a decade old for example

    Thinfilm is a red-headed step child to Si, there have already been these exact same promises before and more the a billion have been spent and the companys going bankrupt because the product never liked upto the hype

    Will the current crop of startups do better? possibly, but the cold truth is there still isn't an assembly line and no products have even started any feild testing. So Far, its just alot of PR, Hype to get big investment $$ ...

    Maybe one day they ( the thin film vapor ware companys ) will have panels and when that happens my Si panels I bought for 3 bucks/watt will still be working, producing energy without any risk or concerns that 2 decades from now they will STILL be working ... not one thinfilm panel produced yet can make that claim
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  • Telco
    Telco Solar Expert Posts: 201 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #10
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    7 panels? That sucks? Thought from the hype that they were actually delivering to the large corps and governments already. Guess this will be a look and see thing then. Bummer, was hoping that buckawatt panels would be out by the time I'm ready to build.
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  • System2
    System2 Posts: 6,290 admin
    #11
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    wow... you'd think by reading a few of the cynical posts here that nanosolar should just shut down their factories and give up.

    I can tell some of these cynics havent even looked up the website; nanosolar.com

    Personally, im looking forward to seeing what they come up with! They've got serious financial backing, plenty of building space and they are definately gearing up to party.

    My only real fear is that British Petroleum will buy them out and shelf it.
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  • System2
    System2 Posts: 6,290 admin
    #12
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon
    Fred-H wrote: »
    My only real fear is that British Petroleum will buy them out and shelf it.

    Yeah, I know what you mean, 30 years ago the American petroleum industry bought up and shredded all those super efficient carburetors that would have given our cars 95 miles to the gallon. Or was it 150 MPG?
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  • Windsun
    Windsun Solar Expert Posts: 1,164 ✭✭
    #13
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    Despite the hype on the Nanosolar website about $1 per watt, a few week weeks ago I saw a PR blurb about production costs of a little over $2 per watt.

    To me that tranlsates into a finished product price of over $3 per watt in huge quantities, much more for typical consumer quantities.

    First Solar is also way overhyped I think, but at least they have an actual product that is shipping (though mainly untested in the field).

    This whole thing is starting to look more and moe like the dot.com bubble.
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  • newenergy
    newenergy Solar Expert Posts: 291 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #14
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    I think no matter what it'll be a few years before prices could drop much. Demand is too high and production won't be fast enough. Even if production costs were low, they would either just make a huge profit or spend a few years investing in increasing production.
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  • H2SO4_guy
    H2SO4_guy Solar Expert Posts: 213 ✭✭✭
    #15
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    If it is a really good product it will probably be bought up by the big petro companies and reintroduced at a much higher price. Look at Siemens, and many of the other good panel makers. They all seem to end up as corperate owned.

    Too bad it costs so very much to gear up to make panels!
    12K asst panels charging through Midnite Classic 150's, powering Exeltechs and Outback VFX-3648 inverter at 12 and 48 volts.  2080 AH @ 48 VDC of Panasonic Stationary batteries (2 strings of 1040 AH each) purchased for slightly over scrap, installed August 2013.  Outback PSX-240X for 220 volt duties.  No genny usage since 2014. 
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  • Windsun
    Windsun Solar Expert Posts: 1,164 ✭✭
    #16
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon
    H2SO4_guy wrote: »
    If it is a really good product it will probably be bought up by the big petro companies and reintroduced at a much higher price. Look at Siemens, and many of the other good panel makers. They all seem to end up as corperate owned.

    Siemens was one of the largest corps in the world. They sold to Shell, who gave up on it making a profit and sold it to SolarWorld in Germany.

    BP Solar (used to be Solarex) is now considering selling off it's solar assets.

    Aside from that, I cannot think of a single major panel manufacturer that is owned by a petro company.
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  • newenergy
    newenergy Solar Expert Posts: 291 ✭✭✭✭✭✭
    #17
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon

    ARCO used to be in Solar. Solarex mergd with Amoco. Seimens bought ARCO Solar. Mobil Solar was bought by ASE, a German company.

    For the most part it seems like the oil companies tried solar and left it.

    I certainly wouldn't put it passed them to have been doing something to suppress solar, but I don't know what. It certainly seemed like Shell was trying to suppress electric cars when they bought the patent to Stanford Ovshinsky's electric car battery.
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  • System2
    System2 Posts: 6,290 admin
    #18
    Re: New Solar Panel Coming Soon
    BB. wrote: »
    NanoSolar (thread discussing them here) is who you may be typing about... They are a US/German mfg. company, and their first panels are to ship (shipping now?) to Europe for $1.00 per watt (200 watt panel = $200)...

    In the grand scheme of things--a $1.00 per watt panel is nice, but we still need to see how well it can last over time. These panels tend to be less efficient, so solar panels need to be larger for the same power output... More area, more structure, more wiring, more handling costs...

    Also, if you are installing a grid tied system in the US... Roughly $10 per watt installed (retail), and $5.00 per watt of that is solar panel. So, a $4 reduction reduces the retail install cost to $6.00 per watt. A nice reduction, but only a 40% reduction in costs, not 80% reduction.

    -Bill

    Just came across this thread and thought it interesting. So my professionally installed system, going up in about another week, is under contract at $5.68 / watt after the rebates. If you take the best mail order price on the actual panels being used, $3.41 / watt of the 5.68 is for the panels. If these were CEC approved, that would bring my professionally installed system price down from $28600 after rebates to $11400 after rebates which makes it 1/3 the cost.

    If doing a self install:

    The same system that was $28600 professionally installed is $18000 self installed by me.

    But the $ / watt panels bring the self installed system down to about $1200 after the rebates assuming that the CEC will pay the full rebate per watt when the panels didn't even cost that. But even if they didn't, the self install is still way way cheaper.
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