Mixed solar/utility analysis

Options
Bluedog225
Bluedog225 Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭✭
edited July 2021 in Solar Beginners Corner #1
I’ve been doing some math and would appreciate some input.  At the outset, the primary purpose of this exercise is to air condition a small place (1000 sqft).  I’ll add that sometimes it is 90F+ at 8 am so I’ll need the ability to run the AC unit until 9 am or so (happy wife/happy life).
-Small home; very hot, sunny climate (Texas)
-13kW solar array on west facing flat roof with micro-inverters (about $20,000)
-850 feet of underground utility service at 100 amp/240V (about $20,000)
-Production estimate at 17,660 kWh annually
-Utility customer charge at $25/month and estimated bill about $150/mo (summer)
I’ve run the numbers at 10 and 20 years and get roughly the same answer.  At 10 years, it is just about a 3 way tie between pure solar/battery, mixed solar and utility service, and pure utility.  Over 20 years, the mixed solar and utility becomes a clear winner.  And over 20 years, the pure utility is clearly more expensive.
The driver of this seems to be that spending $20,000 on utility service both avoids buying battery capacity and provides a modest return in terms of energy sales back to the grid.
Am I on the right track?  Seems odd that mixing my system with the fairly large up-front costs of both installations is the best financial route.
Thanks
Tom

Comments

  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,447 admin
    edited July 2021 #2
    Options
    Without running the numbers for your installation--That has been what I have found over time. Full off grid solar is (in general) more expensive than utility power--Even when you have to pay $20,000 to bring power to your property, you are still closer to the "break even" side vs actually saving money.ii

    Some of the "down the road" issues I have read here... If you ever wish/need to sell the property--I suggest that most solar installations (even grid tied systems on urban homes) has near zero value to the buyer--And in some cases, has a negative value (buyer: I don't want those wires and electrical things on my roof).

    With utility power to the property--That adds "value" to the property for most buyers. And costs for bring power to remote sites seems to only be going up now (no more Rural Electrification subsidies)--And utilities seem to be reducing their service areas (cutting back on new offerings in remote regions that offer little in the way of "profits"). I guess even in California--There has been (at least one) instance(s) of the utility replacing grid service with off grid solar system (don't know any details).

    While utility power/costs are going up, and Grid Tied Solar Power (the cheapest/most reliable/least amount of maintenance) are still cheap--Utilities have been working at reducing subsidies and on network stability--Some states such as Hawaii and Nevada have either made GT solar "illegal" or basically uneconomical (high base monthly charges, high GT related fees/kWH "costs"/low reimbursements).

    But costs for solar (especially batteries at the moment) are probably going up in prices pretty quickly too. Li Ion batteries look to be cost effective (longer life, especially in warm to hot climates). And look at what has happened here... Last week I ran across some batteries are 32 weeks out from order--What happens when you need batteries 5-7 years down the road?

    Besides the issues of "related costs" (backup genset, fuel, storage of fuel, etc.)... There is the question of when you become a member of the senior citizen class... Will you be able to do your own maintenance, have savings to cover new batteries, new hardware, and such things as "upgrades" required by new regulations?

    My starting suggestion is always conservation. It is almost always cheaper to conserve than to generate power.

    I don't live in an area that uses much A/C or Heat--So I am not an expert--But lots of insulation, shading against sun (in summer), and windows that let heat in in the winter, using modern mini-split A/C or Heat Pumps are usually more efficient than central air or window A/C units. Modern heat pump systems can even work below freezing for heating (i.e., more efficient than electric resistance heaters).

    Using an induction cooktop in the home, reduces heat into the home (summer) that the A/C system has to remove--As does LED Lighting, LED TVs, laptop vs desktop computers, etc.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • Bluedog225
    Bluedog225 Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Options
    Thanks for the detailed response Bill!  Very insightful.  

    I think you are correct about the value added by running the underground line.   Darn! (chuckle)

    I’ll keep digging around.