Future Supply of Panels

Re: Future Supply of Panels

EVA wrote:

We will be building an off the grid home in 12-18 months. With the supply/demand for panels getting a bit tighter I have been considering buying at least my panels soon. I would appreciate any opinions on supply and pricing in the next 2 yrs and if I'm just worrying too much.
Thanks,

Oh that any of us could see into the future. It is strange though, about 2 years ago, I started getting a weird feeling of urgency about purchasing my PV's and was in a position to act on it. Almost like I had a premonition of things to come.
They WILL go down again, we just don't know when, or how much higher they will go first.
Good luck.
Wayne

Re: Future Supply of Panels

Greetings,
Eva, I wouldn't buy any technology today that I wouldn't be using for 12 to 18 months. Think about buying a TV, DVD Recorder or Computer, storing it for 18 months then taking it out of storage and comparing it with current products. Some say the price of panels have gone up. Well If I compare what I paid for my 75 watt panels which were high wattage when I bought them with the current price of 75 watt panels I would save over $200 per panel at todays prices. I can buy a 120watt to 160watt panel depending on the source for the same price as I paid for my 75watt'ers. If history has proven anything its that technology gets cheaper once the R&D is paid off. I can buy a great Dell laptop for $500. When I was in business I paid that much for a video card that isn't suitable for a modern computer. If it were me I would wait and buy the newest technology at the prices of the day.
Tek

Re: Future Supply of Panels

Greetings,
Seems to me that there is more than just price per watt at work here. Panels have a conversion rate. That is the rate at which the panel can convert its sq area of sunlight into electricity. This rate is also improving. Improvements in semiconductor technology flow through the whole industry. It doesn't really matter what part of the industry developed the improvements. Modern scientific advances are too great on a day to day basis to buy a set of anything and store it for 18 months and then take it out of a box and expect it to be current. There have been incredible change just is the last two years in solar. Also, availability is too unpredictable. Kind of like the year that the Korean computer memory plant burned down. Prices went up by 400% over night. That can't be predicted but I didn't buy a bunch of memory ahead of time due to worry. If I had I would have had a bunch of out dated unuseable memory. Come to think to think about it that old 1980 panel of yours isn't worth much more than my pile of outdated memory chips. I would still wait and get the best available when I'm ready to put the system together.
Tek

Re: Future Supply of Panels

The panels I bought 3 years ago, I simply could not afford to buy today. Same goes for the ones I got 2 years ago. In fact, those ones (GE 110 watt), I now cannot get here at any price. I'm told it's due to huge world demand, which will only go higher as oil goes through the roof. Looking seriously at world issues I can see $150 oil and even higher. 10 years ago, who would have thought we would live to see the cost of filling our home heating oil tank reaching for $1000.00? Well guess what - - here in Canada it's almost there and where does it go from here? 40 years ago, it cost my parents about $50.00 to fill that same tank! At that rate, in another 40 years it will be $20,000.00
What demand will that put on solar energy?
Wayne

Re: Future Supply of Panels

It is impressave how they can either be friends with the USA and make deals to make the rich richer or they can not make oil deals with us and we will just go take it like in Iraq. If we take control of Iran's and IraQ's oil fields would that not give us control of largest oil field in the world? That would let us set the prices how ever we wanted.. Which would mean the price would increase. Iran does not have a nuke and we would never nuke the place and loose that goldmine. Not going to happen. If it comes to war it will be the same as in Iraq. Just walk right in and take over the place. If you remember Iraq had the 5th largest army in the world and was mashed like a little bug. I would not think Iran would be even in the top 10 in the world.

So yes prices will go up no matter what. War or not. This is just a chance for someone to make a little extra cash. Just like the so called solar panel shortage. It is and always will be GREED and POWER and GREED for POWER that makes the world go around.

I know where to get Evergreen panels for 3.20 a watt so I guess I should go ahead and get a couple more either 115 or 120 watt panels for just in case.

Re: Future Supply of Panels

Hm, I got 3 50 Watt Panels from 1993. So they are 13 years old and they perform still at 97-101% according to what it says on the sticker. In Euros per watt they cost then 7 Euros per watt. Today you buy the same panel, same dimensions and same output for 6 Euros/Watt. That is expensive, but thanks to very generous subsidies affordable for anyone interrested.Adjusted to living costs. the panels got 18% cheaper in the last 10 years.
That the panels in the US are so expensive, is probably because for one there is not as much production like there is in Europe and for two the imported panels have to be paid in local curency, here in Euros. Since the US decided to elect a president that is outside his country,lets say, not the most popular guy around,the $ lost tremendously in value over the last few years. As the US still pay the same price in Euros to the factories here, after converting it in to $ the price changes dramatically.
When the Euro was introduced in the beginning of the century, 87c bought one Euro. Then Mr Bush decided to invade a sovereign country and today you have to pay $1.22 for the same Euro.
So a panel at 100Watts that was 600 Euros sold in the US for $550. Today, the same panel,still 600Euros, costs $ 740. Quite a change and just one price to pay if the nation is at war.
Of course, products made in the US benefit a lot from this as in the rest of the world those goods get cheaper all the time and so can be sold more easily.It would be easy to drive up production in the US, they could undercut the Europeans easily. But, as for most things, the big guys on the top, above all the president, are oil man and have little to no interest in helping alternative energy along. After all, look at the average age of the "decision makers", for them the phrase "save the planet"is placed beyond there life expectancy, so the do not care. Profits are made with oil and all that counts are profits.

Rant over :-D

Greetings from sunny spain
Chris

Re: Future Supply of Panels

Greetings,

I'm not aware of any "incredible" change in increases in watt per sq meter

Actually I didn't say there were incredible changes, just improvement.  There is also improvement in other parts of the solar system such as idle current draw in the sytem controls.  Few years back they developed DDR RAM for computers. The DDR RAM is constructed exactly the same a the previous DIMMs they are just double clocked. The fact that the only change is technique and not architecture doesn't mean a thing.  Fact is, the results was a faster RAM meaning faster computer.  The same applies to panels.  It doesn't matter how they get the 18%, it is still a increase (not incredible but pretty good).  As for all the economic ranting I recommend buying a good energy mutual fund.  You would be amazed at how much money you would have to fill that tank at todays prices. Also WindSun makes my point regarding prices. 130watts for under $600 is a very acceptable price. Three of them are just a little higher then what I paid for my MH system (installed) couple of years ago. I would much rather have the 130watt'ers on my roof (given the limited space on top of a MH) then what I have at the same price. Regarding the original question and in light of all the posts I would still wait and buy the panels later. I'll bet I get more bang for the buck.
Tek
Tek

Re: Future Supply of Panels

BB wrote:

When the Euro was introduced in the beginning of the century, 87c bought one Euro. Then Mr Bush decided to invade a sovereign country and today you have to pay $1.22 for the same Euro.

Actually, the Euro introduction back in December 15 of 1998, one Euro was equal to US$1.18 . Today, one Euro buys usd $1.23 .

You are talking of the introduction of the Euro in banking business. As far as I remember it came in to peoples hands in January 2002 and thats when you had to pay with it. If you look at your linked site, you see the exchange rate I mean. It went steadily down for the dollar. As a matter of fact. you can even combine different actions of Mr.Bush and see a direct change in the exchange.

I simply remember the exchange because I had to go to the US in the summer of 2002 and it was the most expensive visit ever for me.

I just got back from Florida 2 weeks ago and for me all prices since 2002 (except petrol :-D) went down by at least 30%. Very nice for me as visitor.I did notice however, that the majority of people seem to drive huge cars where one fill up can cost $100 but at the same time complain about the high cost of there petrol.Also,in all of these gigantic cars seems to be only one person,sometimes mum with the kids. I wonder what the situation would be, if you have to pay european prices for petrol (at the moment around $6/gallon)

Also. do not forget in price comparisons that in Europe we pay between 15 and 33% sales tax, something rather unheard of in the US, where sales tax is mostly in the single digits or not existent.

Greetings from sunny spain
Chris

Re: Future Supply of Panels

niel wrote:

wayne,
if all you are paying is $1000 per season consider yourself lucky as adjusting for monetary differences and spreading it out over the season it's cheaper for you than me in heating.

No Niel, that's just to fill the oil tank once! My dear old mom usually goes thorough 4 or 5 fillups per winter. This winter was much warmer than in living memory, so only 2 fillups AND, we burned a bunch of wood..
My own house is smaller, VERY well insulated and takes great advantage of the winter sun - - when it shows it's face. LOL
Wayne

Re: Future Supply of Panels


neil maybe you could put up one of those surveys to see if the general
consences is panels are on the way up, down or going to stay about the
same

brad

Re: Future Supply of Panels

Tom, in my humble opinion, you hit the nail squarely on the head!
What you describe, I see EVERY day!
Wayne

Re: Future Supply of Panels

well there are a few things i wanted to say about this thread. 1 is yes the technology has advanced in the panels from years ago. Such are most technology as more people/manufactures become involved it will decrease the price. So obviously with the huge world demand there is a defiect of solar panels, which will drive more competitors into the market to meet the demand. So yes in time the cost will come down but when? who really knows. will it take a year or 3 or 5? who knows for sure but given there is money to be made, with all the state and feceral incentives as well as the government mandated increase in RE, there will be a healthy demand and manufactures will rise to meet that demand and prices will stabilize and as the incentives from the fed and states begin to less as will the demand and result in a surplus driving cost down even more.

2nd is that you have to allow for inflation. yes there are a certain amount of things that will go down in cost as technology increases like plasma TVs 5 years ago a 42" plasma was 5k. but today you can find a 42" plasma for 1k or less. But you have to figure there are what 200-300 manufactures that make tvs? a lot but look at the cost of consumables, bread, milk, meat, oil, it has all gone up as with inflation. so yes your oil will cost more today than it did 10 years ago. same thing with your bread and your milk etc etc.

right now we are in a phase where solar panels are on an upswing in prices cause of an excessive demand over production. but technology has still been working on reducing that cost. as more efficeint panels are being offered as technology increases. So yes a 120w panel today might cost the same as a 75w panel did a few years ago.

but yes with the whole US on elec for household elec, it will not reduce the cost of oil as much, but there inlies the what comes 1st the chicken or the egg. as elec is becoming more acceptable in todays society meaning oil company lobbyist are losing out in congress and there is more of a demand for cleaner, more efficient and renewable energy thus allowing more dollars to fund R&D into other arenas of energy like hybrid engines, that can reduce the demands on oil consumtion for transportation. which then can lead to other things.

also yes the US is a consumer based society, there will not be a mass sacrificing of the people to save energy. they want to have more things, use more energy to power their jacuzzi 24-7 even if the rest of cali is without power. they like the idea of RE or solar but if it effects their daily lives then they are not interested. They will pay higher cost for gas, and elec, etc untill it is required or it is easier for the general public as a whole.

but that is just my 2 cents