Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

Vic
Vic Solar Expert Posts: 3,207 ✭✭✭✭
Been kinna following Panel prices, but, WOW:

http://www.solar-electric.com/kykd235wapos.html

From our host, $1.81/watt for Kyo panels ... makes me look like a moron for buying some a year ago ... they were Monos, but patience sure has been rewarded.
Vic
Off Grid - Two systems -- 4 SW+ 5548 Inverters, Surrette 4KS25 1280 AH X2@48V, 11.1 KW STC PV, 4X MidNite Classic 150 w/ WBjrs, Beta KID on S-530s, MX-60s, MN Bkrs/Boxes.  25 KVA Polyphase Kubota diesel,  Honda Eu6500isa,  Eu3000is-es, Eu2000,  Eu1000 gensets.  Thanks Wind-Sun for this great Forum.
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Comments

  • jcgee88
    jcgee88 Solar Expert Posts: 154 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    Vic wrote: »
    From our host, $1.81/watt for Kyo panels ... makes me look like a moron for buying some a year ago ... they were Monos, but patience sure has been rewarded.
    Vic

    $425 for a 235w Poly panel. What was the price last year
    for equivalent wattage (presumably Mono) that you bought?

    John
  • Vic
    Vic Solar Expert Posts: 3,207 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    John,

    Tell no one, BUT, I paid $2.40/watt for SW 245s one year ago, from a main-line supplier.

    Have had good luck with Shell/SolarWorld monos, and that is the panel I wanted, but was also considering Kyo polys as well ... It IS an IQ test! Oh well, It is only dollarettes.

    But, those who have waited get the reward. Vic Thanks to the Mod who types better than I for fixing the TPYO. VB
    Off Grid - Two systems -- 4 SW+ 5548 Inverters, Surrette 4KS25 1280 AH X2@48V, 11.1 KW STC PV, 4X MidNite Classic 150 w/ WBjrs, Beta KID on S-530s, MX-60s, MN Bkrs/Boxes.  25 KVA Polyphase Kubota diesel,  Honda Eu6500isa,  Eu3000is-es, Eu2000,  Eu1000 gensets.  Thanks Wind-Sun for this great Forum.
  • rollandelliott
    rollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel are therefore horrible investment!

    Just read the link below. How can anyone justify buying something that gives them a 6 % or less return on their investment while that investment has dropped in value 17% last year and probably 20% this year. Financially does it not make sense to just keep your money in the bank!?! Guess I'm not that smart because I bought panels this year.

    well no one can predict the future, but it would seem that solar panels can only get cheaper.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/us-solar-study-idUSTRE78F29020110916
    (Reuters) - The cost to install solar power in the United States fell by 17 percent in 2010 and is on pace to drop even faster this year, according to a new report issued by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

    The total cost to place solar systems on homes and businesses in 2010 excluding government incentives dropped to $6.20 per watt from $7.50 in 2009, according to the study, the fastest drop in the 13 years of data included in the study by the Berkeley Lab, which is managed by the University of California and partly funded by the U.S. Energy Department.

    Government incentives typically cut the costs last year by between 25 to 30 percent, although that support was declining as incentives expire and solar's need for subsidies declined.

    "The post-incentive price drop is less because the incentives are going down pretty fast," said Galen Barbose, a co-author of the report.

    The United States was the fourth-largest market for solar energy last year behind Germany, Italy and Japan.

    This year, sharp declines in the prices of solar panels drove costs down by 11 percent to $5.2 per watt in the first six months alone for installations in California.

    If that pace continues, costs this year could see declines of 22 percent.

    A glut of the solar panels that turn sunlight into electricity has pushed those wholesale prices down by about 20 percent since the end of 2010, mostly because of fast-growing production -- largely from Chinese companies.

    Those price declines have squeezed profits and margins across the industry and eroded the share prices of companies such as U.S.-based First Solar, the largest solar maker by market value, and SunPower Corp, as well as China's Suntech Power Holdings, Trina Solar and JA Solar Holdings.

    Recent corporate bankruptcies, including that of U.S. government-backed Solyndra, have eliminated many of the players that failed to keep pace with the declining market prices for modules.

    Panels typically make up less than half the costs of an installed solar array, with construction, wiring and other components adding the rest.

    Prices for solar panels, or modules, dropped by 37 percent from 2008 through 2010, according to Navigant Consulting's Global Module Price Index.

    Not surprisingly, the report showed that costs for large-scale solar installation of a megawatt or bigger were typically lower than the costs of small systems on homes.

    Costs for large, utility-scale projects varied widely, from $2.90 to $7.40 per watt, depending on the type of project and its location.

    Costs for small residential systems in the Unites States were $6.90 per watt, far higher than the $4.20 per watt cost in Germany, a country that has more than 8 times as much solar built as the United States.

    (Reporting by Matt Daily in New York; Editing by Gary Hill)
  • ggunn
    ggunn Solar Expert Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel are therefore horrible investment!
    Just read the link below. How can anyone justify buying something that gives them a 6 % or less return on their investment while that investment has dropped in value 17% last year and probably 20% this year. Financially does it not make sense to just keep your money in the bank!?! Guess I'm not that smart because I bought panels this year.

    well no one can predict the future, but it would seem that solar panels can only get cheaper.

    It's a Catch-22. If you buy panels now, next year (or next week) they would have been cheaper, but it's sales volume that causes the price to drop.
  • solarix
    solarix Solar Expert Posts: 713 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    PV Module prices are dropping (yea), but utility rebate levels are dropping too (at least in Arizona). So far the net effect is a wash. Still a 7 to 8 year payback time on a typical GT job. APS (Arizona Public Service) requires installers to submit itemized invoices as part of receiving a rebate, so they get to see everyone's pricing and keep dropping the rebate by surprise when ever they see installer profits getting too good! Lots of good brands are now going for less than $1.50/watt in pallet quantities.
  • ggunn
    ggunn Solar Expert Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    solarix wrote: »
    PV Module prices are dropping (yea), but utility rebate levels are dropping too (at least in Arizona). So far the net effect is a wash. Still a 7 to 8 year payback time on a typical GT job. APS (Arizona Public Service) requires installers to submit itemized invoices as part of receiving a rebate, so they get to see everyone's pricing and keep dropping the rebate by surprise when ever they see installer profits getting too good! Lots of good brands are now going for less than $1.50/watt in pallet quantities.
    That's how it should be. The purpose of rebate programs is to encourage folks to get solar for their homes and businesses, not to make integrators' profits larger. The best case scenario is that rebates fall commensurately with system pricing until they are no longer needed.
  • stoneunhenged
    stoneunhenged Solar Expert Posts: 39
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Seems to me the collateral damage in this price drop is going to be expensive solar trackers. A sophisticated motorized tracker that holds 12 panels producing maybe 2500 watts costs about $6,000 before shipping and installation. It may boost output 40%. If those 12 panels have dropped in price to a total of $5,000, essentially the $6,000 tracker is giving you an extra $2,000 worth of panels in added production. Assuming no space constraints, doesn't it makes a lot more sense to buy $6,000 worth of extra panels than to buy a $6,000 tracker?
  • niel
    niel Solar Expert Posts: 10,300 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    yes, those that make trackers are no doubt suffering now for even when pv prices where higher it wasn't always economically sound to get the tracker over more pvs.

    my gut feel is that the pv prices will continue to drop a bit more and then start leveling off by spring and may even jump back up a tad come summer providing nothing else pops into the picture. take my opinion with a grain of salt, but i've been right so far and i don't track the stock market or solar business in general.
  • solarix
    solarix Solar Expert Posts: 713 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    The factor that rules out trackers most of the time is that utilities do not give you any more rebate money for the tracker. They usually figure the rebate in terms of the installed STC watts of power not produced kwh of energy. You get paid for more panels but not for operating them for more hours.
    I think our utility could care less about the kWHs you produce - they just want the SREC credits to satisfy the mandated RES standards.
  • niel
    niel Solar Expert Posts: 10,300 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    good point, but ignoring the incentives part, as some don't get incentives, one must go strictly by the power produced for $ invested. they fail that way and given that pvs are less costly than they were years ago it's a no-brainer that many tracker manufacturers are most likely in a bind right now and could sink if things prolong. let's face it, that's expensive to do that no matter how sound the principal of tracking is..
  • techntrek
    techntrek Solar Expert Posts: 1,372 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    I love the smell spam in the morning.
    4.5 kw APC UPS powered by a Prius, 12 kw Generac, Honda EU3000is
  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Please don't feed the spammers. :roll:
    Just click the little red triangle with the '!' on the offending post and report it.
    It will disappear quickly. Trust me.
  • Juram
    Juram Solar Expert Posts: 36
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Based on industry analysis, module prices should keep dropping slightly over the next few months and will bottom out by the end of the year and possibly even increase somewhat in the first quarter of 2012. If I was in the market for solar, I'd be looking at making a purchase decision before December, possibly even earlier if rebates are involved and in Arizona, APS should be out of rebate money within the next 2-3 weeks for example.
  • ggunn
    ggunn Solar Expert Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    Juram wrote: »
    Based on industry analysis, module prices should keep dropping slightly over the next few months and will bottom out by the end of the year and possibly even increase somewhat in the first quarter of 2012. If I was in the market for solar, I'd be looking at making a purchase decision before December, possibly even earlier if rebates are involved and in Arizona, APS should be out of rebate money within the next 2-3 weeks for example.
    But note that any bottoming out in pricing will be for the near term. I look for module prices to continue to fall over the long term.
  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    ggunn wrote: »
    But note that any bottoming out in pricing will be for the near term. I look for module prices to continue to fall over the long term.

    Right. I'm waiting until they actually pay me to haul the things away. :p
  • overbore
    overbore Registered Users Posts: 6
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    I have an approximate 2,520ah /12V battery bank and ask if there is something to be gained price wise if I purchase higher wattage panels, like the KYO's, then reduce down the voltages via a correct charge controler?? My thinking is that the higher wattage panels will have less net line losses. Any suggestions?

    Many thanks,

    Laus Deo
    overbore
  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,422 admin
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    In general, the higher wattage panels will be less $$$/Watt vs smaller (less than 100 watt) panels.

    But, as you have seen, most of the >100 watt panels do not have standard Vmp~17.5 volt ratings and need a MPPT charge controller to efficiently down convert from high voltage/low current (PV array) to low voltage/high current used by the battery bank.

    But, you will need an expensive MPPT type charge controller to do the conversion (MPPT controllers are pretty nice, especially for larger systems--but not cheap). Also, note that MPPT controllers are rated for 12/24/48 volt output and 60 amp (example) current... If you run the same controller at 48 volts, it can manage a 4x larger (wattage) solar array as it can at 12 volt battery output--So higher voltage battery banks can save money on charge controllers too.

    Another issue is the AH rating of your 12 volt battery bank... Your bank would (ideally) like ~250 Amps of charging current to properly maintain the battery bank (if flooded cell). That is a heck of a lot of copper/fusing/current to support that load--let alone what your peak loads (inverter/DC loads) may be.

    In general, for larger systems, we suggest 24 or 48 volt battery banks to reduce the diameter of copper wire needed and reduce voltage drop issues when making interconnects (plus, I am not a big fan of paralleling more than 2-3 strings of batteries/cells into one large bank--difficult to maintain and keep current sharing balanced among the strings).

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • rollandelliott
    rollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    JUST got an email from a reputable solar dealer that also has solar training classes.
    Panels by the palette are now down to $1.16 if you buy an inverter from them as well. $1.21 if you dont' buy the inverter. Hopefully by next year they will be sub $1.00
  • solarix
    solarix Solar Expert Posts: 713 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    I have 9 pallets of $1.10/w name brand modules sitting in my shop!! gloat - gloat - gloat
  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,422 admin
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Boy, that is near "round off error" when I purchased my system ~6 years ago.

    -Bill :cry: B.
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • rollandelliott
    rollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    solarix wrote: »
    I have 9 pallets of $1.10/w name brand modules sitting in my shop!! gloat - gloat - gloat

    better use them quick in a year they'll be worth half as much:D

    just kidding, but not really!
  • Shane Jackson
    Shane Jackson Solar Expert Posts: 49
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    better use them quick in a year they'll be worth half as much:D

    just kidding, but not really!

    I seriously doubt that.... I just got a letter in today from my power company informing me the rate will increase by 18.6%!!!! That's a big jump!

    I wish I could get my hands on a pallet of panels for $1.10/w best price I can find is $1.26/w....

    Shane
  • solar_dave
    solar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    solarix wrote: »
    I have 9 pallets of $1.10/w name brand modules sitting in my shop!! gloat - gloat - gloat

    Ready to come down here and do that 3000watt install for $3 a watt? ;):D;)
  • rollandelliott
    rollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Got another email today from same company saying if you buy a complete system (panels, rack, inverters) the panels are $1 a watt. Must be done before end of month, must be paid cash. Kind of feel stupid now for buying the panels back in the spring from different company for $1.50/w.
    Kyrocera is a pretty good brand, not sure about others.
    Solar World 225 SWM225POLY-GW1014 SOLARWORLD SUNMODULE PLUS SW225 POLY
    Suniva 235 ART235-60-3-1 SUNIVA 235 WATTS MONO MODULE
    Kyocera 225 KD225GX-LPB KYOCERA 225WATT MODULE BLACK
  • Vic
    Vic Solar Expert Posts: 3,207 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Do'nt feel bad or look back. Some things tend to get better, and less expensive. Use what you have and be happy with what you have.

    Nothing to be gained by beating up on yourself.

    Just MHO, Vic
    Off Grid - Two systems -- 4 SW+ 5548 Inverters, Surrette 4KS25 1280 AH X2@48V, 11.1 KW STC PV, 4X MidNite Classic 150 w/ WBjrs, Beta KID on S-530s, MX-60s, MN Bkrs/Boxes.  25 KVA Polyphase Kubota diesel,  Honda Eu6500isa,  Eu3000is-es, Eu2000,  Eu1000 gensets.  Thanks Wind-Sun for this great Forum.
  • bmet
    bmet Solar Expert Posts: 630 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Did they have the same exceptions, price they quote is AFTER all the rebates(and probably doesn't include the infrastructure costs)?
    Got another email today from same company saying if you buy a complete system (panels, rack, inverters) the panels are $1 a watt. Must be done before end of month, must be paid cash. Kind of feel stupid now for buying the panels back in the spring from different company for $1.50/w.
    Kyrocera is a pretty good brand, not sure about others.
    Solar World 225 SWM225POLY-GW1014 SOLARWORLD SUNMODULE PLUS SW225 POLY
    Suniva 235 ART235-60-3-1 SUNIVA 235 WATTS MONO MODULE
    Kyocera 225 KD225GX-LPB KYOCERA 225WATT MODULE BLACK
  • rollandelliott
    rollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 834 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    just read the sunelec blog and he's predicting 85 cents a watt for grade "A" and 50 cents a watt for blemished cells. Sounds too good to be true, but he should know what he is talking about since he buys and sells panels for a living.
  • bmet
    bmet Solar Expert Posts: 630 ✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    The panel I purchased a year ago hasn't dropped in price, but if doubling the size for 2/3 less money presented itself, i'd go for it.
    just read the sunelec blog and he's predicting 85 cents a watt for grade "A" and 50 cents a watt for blemished cells. Sounds too good to be true, but he should know what he is talking about since he buys and sells panels for a living.
  • ggunn
    ggunn Solar Expert Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping
    bmet wrote: »
    The panel I purchased a year ago hasn't dropped in price, but if doubling the size for 2/3 less money presented itself, i'd go for it.
    I hate to break it to ya, but PV modules that you have already purchased will never drop in price. ;^)
  • Shane Jackson
    Shane Jackson Solar Expert Posts: 49
    Re: Solar Panel prices STILL Dropping

    Solar prices dropping and grid prices going up....