Solar Analysis in the United States

Bernhard Baumgartner
Bernhard Baumgartner Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭
in General Solar Power Topics #1
Hi everyone,

I just created this document and i'm sharing it with you. It's a State by State analysis of the RPS in every American State (with a focus on the potential of growth for the solar industry, with figures in MW).
It can help you t have a global idea of what's being done in every State and it can help you target the right markets.

http://www.slideshare.net/bernhardbaumgartner/usa-energy-10

Let me know what you think about it and don't hesitate to share it.

Thanks

Bernhard
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Comments

  • solar_dave
    solar_dave Solar Expert Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭✭
    #2
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States

    Looked at your presentation, I am only familiar with AZ and was wondering out loud how you came up with those rates? The $0.093 cent rate is only a non TOU winter rate when not much electric is actually used. Summer Standard rates are more telling as there is no unlimited consumption flat rate. Using the Standard Rates and my consumption profile I would have nearly $600 monthly in just generation charges during peak summer times.
    Summer ( May - October billing cycles) 	

 Cents per kWh
       1 - 400 kWh 	 $0.09671
  401 - 800 kWh 	 $0.13739
  801 - 3000 kWh 	 $0.16281
3001 kWh and up 	 $0.17358

    Also I really don't know of any homeowners using the Standard Rates, most are on some sort of TOU plan so they have control over there usage vs cost. In these scenarios solar has a larger impact on the cost. Did you account for that kind of data in your calculations? I know in my case I have had days of 125+ kWh of usage overall in summer with over half coming from solar and the other half coming from earlier banked kWh.

    Using a flat rate for kWh these days is rather simplistic.
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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,613 admin
    #3
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States

    Bernhard,

    Who is this presentation intended for? Since you are connected with a business school (Masters student?)--I would guess this is intended as a marketing research study?

    If I was a business owner, perhaps a ranking of market saturation, incentives, etc.

    A legislature, perhaps a ranking of how effective subsidies, feed-in tariffs, etc. are for my state vs others in the region.

    Breaking each state up and grading makes it very difficult to understand (at least to me) what is being presented/compared.

    I guess you are out of France... In the US, companies tend to be regional (or larger) rather than purely state based--so ordering states alphabetically makes for a confusing way to present the data (in Europe, you probably have fewer trans-national small installers/distributors--but perhaps that is changing).

    Also, the charts for $/kWH costs are currently in $/MWH cost (i.e., $10,5 / kWH is really $0.105 per kWH). And--in the US, we switch the "," vs "." for decimal points--if this is intended for a purely US market, you should swap yours.

    Have you done any studies yet about subsides/feed-in tariffs and where those are going in regards to the current economic climate? Do you see solar (your expertise?) as being profitable if many/most of the subsidies go away in the next few years?

    Welcome to the forum.

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • Bernhard Baumgartner
    Bernhard Baumgartner Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭
    #4
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States
    solar_dave wrote: »
    Looked at your presentation, I am only familiar with AZ and was wondering out loud how you came up with those rates? The $0.093 cent rate is only a non TOU winter rate when not much electric is actually used. Summer Standard rates are more telling as there is no unlimited consumption flat rate. Using the Standard Rates and my consumption profile I would have nearly $600 monthly in just generation charges during peak summer times.
    Summer ( May - October billing cycles) 	

 Cents per kWh
       1 - 400 kWh 	 $0.09671
  401 - 800 kWh 	 $0.13739
  801 - 3000 kWh 	 $0.16281
3001 kWh and up 	 $0.17358

    Also I really don't know of any homeowners using the Standard Rates, most are on some sort of TOU plan so they have control over there usage vs cost. In these scenarios solar has a larger impact on the cost. Did you account for that kind of data in your calculations? I know in my case I have had days of 125+ kWh of usage overall in summer with over half coming from solar and the other half coming from earlier banked kWh.

    Using a flat rate for kWh these days is rather simplistic.


    I took the average quote from http://www.eia.go for the sake of simplicity. I know there are some differences with TOU and everything but more than the actual figures, it's to have a quick overview of the pricing in this State. Green is expensive, orange is in the middle and red is cheap.
    I'll take what you said into account and continue working on it
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  • Bernhard Baumgartner
    Bernhard Baumgartner Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭
    #5
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States
    BB. wrote: »
    Bernhard,

    Who is this presentation intended for? Since you are connected with a business school (Masters student?)--I would guess this is intended as a marketing research study?

    If I was a business owner, perhaps a ranking of market saturation, incentives, etc.

    A legislature, perhaps a ranking of how effective subsidies, feed-in tariffs, etc. are for my state vs others in the region.

    Breaking each state up and grading makes it very difficult to understand (at least to me) what is being presented/compared.

    I guess you are out of France... In the US, companies tend to be regional (or larger) rather than purely state based--so ordering states alphabetically makes for a confusing way to present the data (in Europe, you probably have fewer trans-national small installers/distributors--but perhaps that is changing).

    Also, the charts for $/kWH costs are currently in $/MWH cost (i.e., $10,5 / kWH is really $0.105 per kWH). And--in the US, we switch the "," vs "." for decimal points--if this is intended for a purely US market, you should swap yours.

    Have you done any studies yet about subsides/feed-in tariffs and where those are going in regards to the current economic climate? Do you see solar (your expertise?) as being profitable if many/most of the subsidies go away in the next few years?

    Welcome to the forum.

    -Bill


    Hi Bill,

    Thanks for the detailed analysis.

    I'm completely done with school. I did this research on my own just to get an idea of the american market. I started it after attending the ASES conferences in Raleigh in May. Instead of keeping it for myself i thought to myself that it could be useful for other people so that's why i'm sharing it.

    I have some more room to insert incentives but i can't go in much details. I'll try to make something simple and understandable.

    Breaking it into regional areas is a good idea. i'll reorganize it in a more logical way.

    Thanks for noticing the kWh/MWh mistake. With those prices solar would be much more profitable ;) . i'll replace the "," with "." . I have to get used to it.

    As for your final questions: I think solar is still profitable. I prefer the net metering system to the european FIT (it makes me feel guilty to make everyone pay for those who are able to afford solar systems. Especially when the FITs are badly designed as they were in France). With the reduction in costs i believe that solar sytems will be an affordable investment for almost every middle class family (in 5-10 years)
    I see the future of the solar market in the Sun Belt countries. (you can read the 'Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential for Photovoltaics' publication on the following link: http://www.epia.org/index.php?id=18 . That's where the biggest battle will be fought. (my opinion).

    If you're interested i have an other document on slideshare about the future of the industry: (http://www.slideshare.net/bernhardbaumgartner/emerging-industry-solar-bernhard-baumgartner-ss ). I did this for a MBA class in Maryland last semester.

    Have a nice day

    Bernhard
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  • BB.
    BB. Super Moderators, Administrators Posts: 33,613 admin
    #6
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States

    Bernhard,

    Here is an another way of analyzing/presenting commercial solar data... Not necessarily better, but other ways of looking at the questions and making comparisons:

    Comparing Solar PV Projects

    -Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
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  • solarix
    solarix Solar Expert Posts: 713 ✭✭
    #7
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States

    Cool presentation. I learned a lot about other states.
    - Not sure about the solar grade - how does CA rate an F?
    - Tenessee is spelled with 2 n's
    - Resource on last page is also misspelled.
    What we need is a "my state is better than your state" competition to spur solar development in the USA.
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  • bobdog
    bobdog Solar Expert Posts: 192 ✭✭
    #8
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States
    Bernhard Baumgartner wrote: »

    With the reduction in costs i believe that solar sytems will be an affordable investment for almost every middle class family (in 5-10 years)

    Bernhard


    [Edit: Whoa! Let's not go wondering down the political path. - 'Coot]

    Edit: removed post. don't want to upset anyone....
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  • Bernhard Baumgartner
    Bernhard Baumgartner Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭
    #9
    Re: Solar Analysis in the United States
    solarix wrote: »
    What we need is a "my state is better than your state" competition to spur solar development in the USA.

    I completely agree. I would start with a energy consumption reduction though.
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