Be Advised

dwh

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

"Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast."



http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090508_solarstorm.html

"“As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems,” said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chairs the panel. “The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle.”

The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe, sent readings of Earth’s magnetic field soaring, and produced northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light.

A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and require four to 10 years for recovery, compared to $80-125 billion that resulted from Hurricane Katrina."

niel

Re: Be Advised

hmmm. the sky is falling, the sky is falling. oops, i guess i should've said the sky might fall, the sky might fall.

reporting lulls or below normal activity isn't necessary and to say look out because of it isn't warranted either no matter how unusual it may be. i would be curious of how such an occurrence would impact some of our solar stuff. i believe pvs would be ok, but other electronics may be in question.

dwh

Re: Be Advised

The lull doesn't matter. What matters is that the lull is now over and heading up, and will peak in 2013...when they anticipate a few trillion in damage - mostly due to blown electronics.

EDIT: And if you look at the graphs, this isn't anything new - this one will be "Cycle #24".

AntronX

Re: Be Advised

I better go get my General license and buy an HF radio.

niel

Re: Be Advised

dwh wrote: »

The lull doesn't matter. What matters is that the lull is now over and heading up, and will peak in 2013...when they anticipate a few trillion in damage - mostly due to blown electronics.

EDIT: And if you look at the graphs, this isn't anything new - this one will be "Cycle #24".

they don't know for sure if it will be a bad episode even if it happens at all and the sun has been cycling much longer than we've been recording it so nothing new there. it is always a possibility though and i think it to be a bit on the alarmist side bordering paranoia to be on edge about it. you have a better chance of being struck by lightning i think than being devastated by a solar flare.

antronx,
doesn't your current license cover your star trek communicator?:p
adding what curly would say, nyuck nyuck nyuck. oh, a wise guy.

AntronX

Re: Be Advised

niel wrote: »

antronx, doesn't your current license cover your star trek communicator?:p
adding what curly would say, nyuck nyuck nyuck. oh, a wise guy.

I am not sure about that, will have to check with Starfleet first. But with these promises of highly active sun, the skip should be great in the next few years. Just in time for me to get into HF.