Future Energy Prices and Politics (trimmed from other thread)

jeffkruse

How long do you think energy prices will continue to rise? At some point energy will be basically free. I think that will happen in the next 30 - 40 years.

When will we be able to paint our houses with solar ink? A lot of new inventions will require massive amounts of energy to advance the human race. I think conservation is necessary for the next 30 years but we really need to focus on new clean unlimited sources.

niel

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

my comments in bold.

jeffkruse wrote: »

How long do you think energy prices will continue to rise? in the overall, it probably will never stop even though there may be some temporary stops. At some point energy will be basically free. I think that will happen in the next 30 - 40 years. i think that's wishful thinking and will never happen.

When will we be able to paint our houses with solar ink? when jane stops this crazy thing on the jetsons. A lot of new inventions will require massive amounts of energy to advance the human race. I think conservation is necessary for the next 30 years but we really need to focus on new clean unlimited sources. agreed and not just in the next 30yrs.

dwh

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

jeffkruse wrote: »

When will we be able to paint our houses with solar ink?

It won't actually be like that...

More like this:

http://www.wilmccarthy.com/hm.htm

icarus

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Jeff,

"How long do you think energy prices will continue to rise? At some point energy will be basically free. I think that will happen in the next 30 - 40 years."

I don't know how you can come to this conclusion. It may be a semantic issue, but energy is basically "free" now (solar, tide, wind, biomass, even coal and oil if you are in the right place) the "cost" as it were, is in harnessing and distributing that energy.

Couple the growing world wide population growth and demand curves and I personally don't see any scenario during the next 50 years or so where energy costs will go marginally down over any real time horizon. Just think for a minute how much energy is actually consumed yearly world wide. I heard it put in the 20 terrawatt number from all sources. I cannot even conceive of such a number!

Even if solar Pv comes down to $.01/watt, the infrastructure to use that energy for our industrial/transportation/recreational/personal needs is going to be quite expensive. For example, even if we could harvest all the power of all the falling water in the world, the environmental impact (and costs) would be catastrophic.

So,, I don't think energy costs are coming down any in my lifetime,

Tony

jeffkruse

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

This is what I think has a good chance of happening. In the next 5 – 10 years solar panels will be printed and sold for less than $1 a watt. Taxes on carbon would raise the cost of electricity. Grid tied solar systems would pop up all over. No new power plants will be built. As more and more solar systems go up the price of coal and oil will plummet. Look what just happened with oil. Our demand only dropped around 10% and the price dropped 60%.

Soon electric cars will be mainstream. Further reducing the need for oil. Oil and gas will only be used for plastic, heating, and airplanes. Global warming will keep the pressure on carbon emissions. This should keep the cost of using oil high and allow solar to continue to grow.

Cheap solar will buy us 20 – 30 years but our demand for power will continue to rise. Room temp superconductors will be in use. All kinds of gadgets will be invented that will require massive amounts of power. Fusion plants could be built. Grid electricity could cost a penny a KWH.

30 to 50 years out Fusion plants could become very small in size. Every home could have one. Energy could be harvested directly from matter its self.

But then again we should have been to Mars by now :grr

icarus

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Jeff, No offense,, but I think I have some waterfront property to sell you in Florida.

You analogy about oil is not quite right in my opinion. Demand may have dropped off 10% but the price was clearly artificially high due to speculation. I personally predicted about this time last year when oil was ~$140 barrel, that oil would drop to at least $39 by years end. (It did drop to ~$33 if memory serves) I further predicted that it would spike again).

I don't mean to imply that I have the "answer" but I think it clear that energy prices are going to go up. My question to you is,, what do you see on the horizon to make PV prices fall to $1/watt? What evidence that Electric cars will become mainstream? What evidence that fusion will become a reality?

I indeed do hope you are right,, I just don't think so.

Tony

Cariboocoot

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Tony - I think Jeff was being a little bit sarcastic. Note the line about going to Mars at the end.

I'm still waiting for those flying cars they promised back in the fifties that we'd all have by now.

icarus

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Marc,

I'm not sure,, if so my radar must be really off,,,

I think in the '60s we were promised that we would go to mars by the year 2000!

T

jeffkruse

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

No, I am not being sarcastic. We have the technology now to mass produce printed solar panels. I really hope that 5 - 10 years from now they are mainstream (at least on 20% of people’s houses). I think electric cars are close. I hope the public demands them. Maybe the car companies got a wakeup call and will now produce electric cars (again).

IMO the crashing of the global economy may be the only thing that saves us. But I fear it’s too late already. I think global warming will continue to accelerate. I am worried that the gulf stream will shut down. If it does thing will get bad (that is for humans) really quick. Global warming is bad for most humans and many non humans. The earth doesn’t care what we do because it will still be here long after us.

jeffkruse

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

And don’t get me started with Mars. We could be there today if the public would accept one way trips. Sign me up for a one way trip to Mars. I would go even if the supplies only lasted 6 months but NASA (because of the public) would never launch a “suicide” trip to Mars. :grr

Cariboocoot

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Cynicism: as you get older it sets like concrete on your soul.

I will not get involved in a philosophical discussion on this board. I'm sure the moderators would agree.

BB.

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Huh? Hmmm... I wasn't paying attention.

-Bill

dwh

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

Cariboocoot wrote: »

Tony - I think Jeff was being a little bit sarcastic. Note the line about going to Mars at the end.

I'm still waiting for those flying cars they promised back in the fifties that we'd all have by now.

Paul Moller never did stop working on it:

http://www.moller.com/

I want one, but for "safety" he wants them to be all autopiloted off a control grid. That's just no fun if you ask me...I mean, why have a 400mph VTOL aircraft if you can't just go wherever you want in it?

Cariboocoot

Re: New Guy from Missouri - Part1

dwh wrote: »

Paul Moller never did stop working on it:

http://www.moller.com/

I want one, but for "safety" he wants them to be all autopiloted off a control grid. That's just no fun if you ask me...I mean, why have a 400mph VTOL aircraft if you can't just go wherever you want in it?

Exactly. If I didn't have to wind my way down logging roads I could be in town quick - especially at 400 mph.


We're getting rather too far off subject here. Sorry.

BB.

Re: Future Energy Prices and Politics (trimmed from other thread)

I moved the political posts from their original thread and placed them here...

Got a bit far off-topic from the original post.

-Bill (Moderator)