Elon Musk and his Powerwall/Companies

SolarPowered

WOW. Let's keep it on Topic. I'm the little guy.
Not bullying, just pointing out facts. The company has built a reputation on press releasing for pumping and dumping stocks.
If you recall 12 years ago when Elon first started Tesla he built a E car for $120,000 and still required donation start ups to keep the company going. Even 12 years back there has always been talks of the economical electric car to compete with at that time, Mitsubishi, and Honda.
Now let's rewind almost 2 years ago, making claims of building a car for under $40,000 to the consumer by year end...... Never happened. But the stock price Inflatted.

Then Elon/Tesla decides to expand it's focus on battery technology. Build the giga facility, making claims the world needs energy storage, Tesla will deliver low cost lithiums...... Which are still not low cost, yet the stock price Inflatted.

Then deviates from the companies sole focus the E model cars, and makes false sales claims that people will need lithium battery storage for grid, when 43 of 50 states are in some form of NEM agreement. Stock price jumped then fell.

I'm all for technology when it's released, and actually a tangible commodity, I'm just one of those guys like many tired of being lied to, to create false market conditions for a company that appears to need the money.

When the power wall actually exists to the consumer, then that's real news. Then we have actual tangible specifications to talk about. But until then it's really just hear say.

I apologize if you misconstrue me being the bad guy, a lot of people here don't want to waste their time and energy on a product line that doesn't exist tangibly yet to consumers. Consumers are ultimately the main feedback determining if that product is worthy, of it's commodity value.

BB.

Solarpowered,

I have moved your post to its own thread. I need to respect the person who created the thread subject/topic of choice and what is on topic for their posts/discussions.

Having your own thread, you can lead the discussion/get feed back on your topic of choice.

The moderators (I guess that is me at the moment) try to keep the discussions focused on the topic of the posts, not on the people making the comments.

When talking about a person like Elon Musk who is the face of his products--That gets to be a bit dicey to try and separate the person from their company/product.

There has been a lot of news and rumors written about Elon Musk. And would he have existed if it was not for government handing out huge sums of cash--That is hard to say (or may not be a difficult what if prediction at all):

http://www.govtech.com/budget-finance/Elon-Musk-Business-Empire-Funded-with-49-Billion-in-Government-Subsidies.html

Los Angeles entrepreneur Elon Musk has built a multibillion-dollar fortune running companies that make electric cars, sell solar panels and launch rockets into space. And he's built those companies with the help of billions in government subsidies.

Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support, according to data compiled by The Times. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups.
He definitely goes where there is government money," said Dan Dolev, an analyst at Jefferies Equity Research. "That's a great strategy, but the government will cut you off one day."

There have been times when companies do things to get started that take laws/financing to the line (if not over):

Marcus: We Couldn't Start Home Depot Today

(DETROIT, MI) – Job Creators Network founder Bernie Marcus today told the members of the prestigious Detroit Economic Club that America has changed drastically since he started The Home Depot – so much that he could not possibly start the successful national company today.
“We started with four stores and a dream, and a small bank believed in us enough to invest,” the 84-year old retired CEO told the luncheon crowd. “With laws on the books like Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank, that banker would be breaking regulations today. The next Home Depot could never get off the ground.”

-Bill

JoshK

A sincere thanks to Bill for separating this discussion from my original post. In a context of it's own (like this) it is an interesting read.

BB.

Josh,

I try (or am trying--Guess I answer to both). :-)

Here is another article that seems to indicate that Tesla has had (perhaps) a couple near death experiences:

http://www.sfgate.com/business/artic...rs-6239762.php

Can a high-profile company led by a celebrity CEO come within two weeks of bankruptcy without anyone noticing?
In early 2013, electric automaker Tesla Motors came so close to running out of cash that its brash leader, Elon Musk, approached Google about buying the company, according to a new Musk biography.
A surge in sales of the company’s pricey Model S sedan staved off disaster. Musk broke off the Google talks, no longer needing a white knight.
And no one outside the two companies knew about it.
Not investors, who sent Tesla’s share price soaring right after the company’s alleged brush with death. Not Wall Street analysts, who regularly scour Tesla’s quarterly earnings reports for any hint of trouble. Not the bloggers who argue endlessly about Tesla’s prospects. And not reporters — this one included — tasked with tracking the company’s financial health.
The near-bankruptcy went undetected. If it happened at all.
When Tesla finally released its profit report for the first three months of 2013, it reported its first quarterly profit ever — with no signs the company had been fighting for its very survival.
...
Near-death experiences
Certainly, Tesla has had its share of near-death experiences.
Musk is unusually open about discussing them. He often tells interviewers and audiences that he initially didn’t think Tesla would survive, because most new automakers don’t. By his reckoning, Tesla came within “a few days” of bankruptcy in December 2008 before landing another round of funding.
“What are the odds of a car company succeeding? Pretty darn low,” he told a gathering in San Francisco last year.
But Tesla, based in Palo Alto, was still a privately held startup when it nearly died in 2008. By 2013, the company was publicly traded, obliged by law to give its investors quarterly updates on its fiscal health. It had also become a favorite subject of financial bloggers, with bulls and bears locked in hyperbolic argument over whether Tesla would disrupt the entire auto industry or quickly implode.

If you are an invester, or a competitor, or even somebody that believes in the rule of law--I can very much understand wanting people to understand what (may be going on) happens behind the curtain.

Warn others to be very careful with their hard earned/savings--And not believing in the press releases without doing the research (if the information is even available).

-Bill

JoshK

My only investment in Tesla is the Powewall I have reserved. I don't know if Tesla is evil or not. Certainly some people think so. But we have the technology to eliminate most gas engines yet we don't. If Tesla can change the perception of electric cars from "nerd cars" to "rich man's cars" then the average person will lust for one. If Tesla can do this before it dies, we all win.

SolarPowered

Me personally. I stopped investing 4 years ago after Sirius/XM radio merged.
If anyone recalls those days in the Media, Mel Karmazin, of then, is much like the Elon Musk of now.

Both Sirius and XM before the merger were near bankruptcy levels. The market was false with XM at $7.00 a share, and Sirius at $.05. I bought 40000 shares of sirius, and bet a lot if money to win on Sirius. Sirius won the acquisition and 1 year later cashed out over $2.10 a share.

Same with STP (suntech power holdings) before they went bankrupt. Also lots of SunPower stock before the A and B stock solidification.

Other than those stocks, I lost a lot of money on many others. In the end gambling in the stock market is a zero sum game, with the benies of tax write offs.

My problem with TESLA as a company is the CEO means well but he seems to have issues focusing on company prime directives.

What TESLA is doing is no different than Solyndra. Filled the government with empty promises and went bankrupt. No different than the vision Elon Musk has for power wall.

Tesla should focus on cars and cars only. Start a battery spin off company, but if the CEO puts all the eggs in one basket, eventually the bottom of the basket will fail, then you lose all the eggs.

KenZ71

I view investing like baseball, going for the spectacular home run at every moment often backfires.

JoshK

Man do I have an idea for you guys. Have you ever looked back at rare collectible cars and said "If I only had one in mint condition I could be rich"? Here's the chance of a lifetime. Everybody knows who Tesla is. If you believe it will fail in the near future COLLECT A TESLA TODAY. Keep it in mint condition and get rich after Tesla is gone.

down under plumber

there is all ready a power wall out there Victron make one http://www.victronenergy.com/inverters-chargers/ecomulti

inetdog

JoshK wrote: »

Man do I have an idea for you guys. Have you ever looked back at rare collectible cars and said "If I only had one in mint condition I could be rich"? Here's the chance of a lifetime. Everybody knows who Tesla is. If you believe it will fail in the near future COLLECT A TESLA TODAY. Keep it in mint condition and get rich after Tesla is gone.

De Loreans are not exactly a hot item right now....

SolarPowered

inetdog wrote: »

De Loreans are not exactly a hot item right now....

LOL! I saw one on craigslist for $500 non-running because you can't find any parts for the thing.

SolarPowered

down under plumber wrote: »

there is all ready a power wall out there Victron make one http://www.victronenergy.com/inverters-chargers/ecomulti

Its an inverter/battery combo, its actually better than power wall. They only make it for 50hz though.

westbranch

battery - 32KG, 2.3 kWh, too bad it isn't available in sizes up to about 5 times that size, ie 11.5kWh 2.3 would be too small for us but ~ 3 times would probably work out as a good fit based on my planned consumption.. at this point I like its utility.. Victron does make some 60 Hz stuff too...

JoshK

Zakarume, If you want maintenance free battery power for the next 10 years, or don't want to dedicate a whole room of your house to lead-acid batteries, Tesla Powerwall is perfect. A solar charger is built in, and SolarEdge and Intersolar Europe make Tesla-ready inverters, just as a few examples. Pika will too, soon. I am not an investor in Tesla, nor have I even seen one on this forum I think is. You can pretty much tell which generation someone belongs to by their opinion of Tesla. (There are news articles about that). The CEO of Tesla is in his fourties I believe. As long as you are 40 or younger you will like Tesla. That's not a joke, it's what is happening.

SolarPowered

JoshK wrote: »

Zakarume, If you want maintenance free battery power for the next 10 years, or don't want to dedicate a whole room of your house to lead-acid batteries, Tesla Powerwall is perfect. A solar charger is built in, and SolarEdge

You can pretty much tell which generation someone belongs to by their opinion of Tesla. (There are news articles about that). The CEO of Tesla is in his fourties I believe. As long as you are 40 or younger you will like Tesla. That's not a joke, it's what is happening.

Im a 36year old General Contractor, own and operate other businesses. I 100% disagree.

Tesla is a bandwagon of new comers consumers with absolutely no engineering experience, that are tree hugging, into being green liberals.

Lithium batteries under heavy loads, have never been proven to last longer than 4 years tops!

Everything from cell phones, laptops, portable tv's, and radios all using lithium power and none reach 10 years!

When you buy Tesla you aren't buying a battery that lasts 10years, you pay double for a protection 10 year warranty.

Can you prove Tesla will be around in 10 years? No, you can't.

Chevrolet just announced last week they are releasing the Chevy bolt, at under $30,000, with a 200mile battery. Is Tesla going to be able to compete?

No. It's all a pipe dream.

KenZ71

Tesla auto seems to be going more for performance that impresses the muscle car crowd with a tree hugger twist. While the Bolt seems to be more for the economic performance of more miles per Volts.

Very different audience

The Tesla I was chasing at 85+ MPH was certainly not all hype. Of course I can go that spèed for 300 + miles, stop for 15 minutes and do it again. Tesla, no way.

SolarPowered

KenZ71 wrote: »

The Tesla I was chasing at 85+ MPH was certainly not all hype. Of course I can go that spèed for 300 + miles, stop for 15 minutes and do it again. Tesla, no way.

My Nissan Titan V8 truck smokes TESLA's in the 1/4mile. It's bone stock.

But then again it only averages 14.5MPG city/freeway.

Then again it's almost no different from a tesla owner charging a 90kWh battery at $.43 a kWh on a EV tier plan.

The lighter chassis of the Chevy Bolt is going to make it a FAST peppy car, compared to a type S or type X with a battery capacity 40% less than TESLA's.

Yup, it's only a matter of time before Tesla goes under unless there is a significant price drop.

sub3marathonman

SolarPowered wrote: »

My Nissan Titan V8 truck smokes TESLA's in the 1/4mile. It's bone stock.

Oh really???

SolarPowered

sub3marathonman wrote: »

Oh really???

Synical sarcasm
Nissan Titan
6.5seconds, 0-60.
14 seconds 1/4mile 93mph. On regular 87octane.
5560LB chassis

Tesla is boasting 1/4mile time trials
between 11.5 and 13 second 1/4mile times depending on s model type. 2 electric motors on the model s 85 has the better 1/4mile time.
Curb weight 4647

Titan is also 913LBS more than a Tesla

KenZ71

It would take 2 Tesla's at least to move an equivalent quantity of cargo / passengers vs my Suburban

But that is not the intended audience Tesla is going after. I think they are aiming more at the Mustang, Camargo maybe even Corvette market where the buyer thinks they are being green

SolarPowered

Corvette Z06, Nissan GTR smoke both the dodge viper, and the TESLA S.


Nissan GTR V6 twin turbo all wheel drive wins hands down for it's all wheel drive.
V10 dodge is actually the slowest among the rally cars in it's class.
As far as price comparison the viper is slowest in the price range over $80,000.

Hotrod Magazines review of the z06 clocking in around 10seconds.
http://www.hotrod.com/news/2015-corvette-z06-clocks-0-60-in-less-than-3-seconds/
Corvette sells for the same price as TESLA S 85.

Car and Driver wrote:

There are no powertrain changes for 2015—not that we’re complaining. The twin-turbo 3.8-liter V-6 makes a heady 545 horsepower and 463 lb-ft of torque. With the aid of the viciously effective launch control, we recorded the blitz to 60 mph in 3.0 seconds. We’ve managed 2.9 seconds in other GT-Rs, but the 11.2-second sprint to 1320 feet makes this 2015 model as quick through the quarter-mile as any GT-R we've tested, including the 600-hp 2015 Nissan GT-R NISMO.

http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/...-r-test-review

JoshK

SolarPowered wrote: »

Nissan Titan - 14 seconds.
Tesla - between 11.5 and 13.

Sounds like all the Tesla models smoke your Titan. And look how many more years Nissan has been building cars.

SolarPowered

JoshK wrote: »

Sounds like all the Tesla models smoke your Titan. And look how many more years Nissan has been building cars.

Actually I'm happy with my investment.

It seats six people for long trips, tows boats and RV's no problem at all.

Makes money for my construction business.

Runs a 14second 1/4mile which is faster than most trucks on the market.

It also cost under $30,000.00 for purchase.

Still haven't seen TESLA build a truck that can do all that for $30,000.00.

jeffkruse

SolarPowered wrote: »

Actually I'm happy with my investment.

It seats six people for long trips, tows boats and RV's no problem at all.

Makes money for my construction business.

Runs a 14second 1/4mile which is faster than most trucks on the market.

It also cost under $30,000.00 for purchase.

Still haven't seen TESLA build a truck that can do all that for $30,000.00.

And they wont. TESLA builds vehicles that are far more efficient than your gas guzzler. Tesla builds the highest rated and safest cars on the road. Elons Power Wall will be 1/2 the price of the nearest competitor (once it comes out). And despite the CRS7 rocket failure Space X is on the verge of revolutionizing access to space. Again, his nearest competitors are twice the price with no down mass capability! Please stop your tirade of Elon Musk. ... -BB

SolarPowered

jeffkruse wrote: »

And they wont. TESLA builds vehicles that are far more efficient than your gas guzzler. Tesla builds the highest rated and safest cars on the road. Elons Power Wall will be 1/2 the price of the nearest competitor (once it comes out). And despite the CRS7 rocket failure Space X is on the verge of revolutionizing access to space. Again, his nearest competitors are twice the price with no down mass capability! Please stop your tirade of Elon Musk. Your last posts have all been perceived as personal attacks against Mr Musk.

OK?

Just like google splurged million(s) on their thermal plant, that is under performing, isn't efficient, and are still asking for a government grants to subsidize their losses?

TESLA is no different than any other tech firm making statements that they can defy the laws of physics.

This is where companies like TESLA following in googles foot steps are going to fail.

No my truck is not inefficient it runs on 87octane and make over 300hp, and almost 20lbs shy of 400ft/lbs of torque. It also passes the highest emission standards. That's pretty efficient.

SolarPowered

I would also like to add that your statement of TESLA being the most efficient electric car is hocus pocus.

Rear wheel drive gasoline trucks and cars suffer what is called parasitic transmission loss of 17%.
Front wheel drive gasoline cars suffer parasitic transmission losses at 7%.

Tesla is no different than a front wheel gasoline car with losses nearing 7%.

You cannot defy the law of physics.

Now lets look at efficiency.

Nissan Leaf 90 mile range 19kWh Battery.
19,000 watts / 90miles= .211 kWh per mile driven (0-60MPH in 9.4 seconds, constant efficiency heavy and light driving)

Chevy Spark EV 82 mile range, 19kWh Battery
19,000 watts / 82 = .231kWh per mile driven (0-60MPH in 7.2 seconds, Constant efficiency heavy and light driving)

Tesla S85 265mile range 85kWh Battery (0-60MPH 5.4 "S 85"its actually 90 but the BMS only allows 85 for thermal runaway purposes)
85,000 watts / 265miles = .320kWh per mile driven (light foot driving to get 265 (TESLA S85 is AVG 200miles with less conservative driving)
85,000watts / 200miles = .425kWh per mile driven
By far the Nissan leaf is 31% ~51% greater in efficiency than the TESLA S.
Chevy Spark EV is 27%~47% greater in efficiency than the TESLA S.

Out of all electric cars on the market TESLA is the least EFFICIENT OF ALL ELECTRIC CARS ON THE MARKET.

Don't kid yourself.
Chevrolet is going to put TESLA out of business with the BOLT.

JoshK

SolarPowered wrote: »

...statement of TESLA being the most efficient electric car

Nobody said that. [please, don't do attack the poster. -BB]
(BB/SolarPowered, It was just a light hearted joke, no offense intended -JK)

SolarPowered

JoshK wrote: »

[please, don't do attack the poster. -BB]

jeffkruse wrote: »

And they wont. TESLA builds vehicles that are far more efficient than your gas guzzler.

Gaz guzzler yes, in a matter of energy efficiency NO, as far as 0 carbon emissions for tesla compared to my truck, yes. Efficiency standards compared to other electric vehicles, absolutely not even close. We aren't defying the laws of physics and bigger motors electrically, or internally combusted all require more energy for motion. How you pay for that energy is a whole different story.

I have clients that buy $36,000 (9.6kWh systems) just so eventually after 8 years of return before tax credit, that energy for their car is free. The people that don't go solar pay double as high as $.33 and $.42 kWh which is actually 15% more than what I pay for the cost of regular fuel. Solar system power is antiquated nearing grid parity at $.13kWh.

So we are talking about people that require 4.8 kWh just to charge their tesla's at a total initial investment of$18,000
Plus the cost of a Tesla 85 starting at $82,000.
It costs $18,000 in "electrical energy" to power a tesla s 85d through out the course of a 8 year span. My truck costs $75 a week to fuel that comes out to $31200.
Grand total for TESLA $100,000 and we have not even factored in battery replacement and mechanical repairs. Grand total my truck is over the course of 8 years is under $66,000 including the maintenance costs.



My Truck is 318HP~385ft/lb.s torque, 17% transmission loss 0-60 6.5 seconds
Tesla S85 is 376HP~362ft/lb.s.torque, 7% transmission loss 0-60 5.2 seconds

If we factored my trucks transmission loss which is 10% greater than the TESLA 85 would run a 0-60 in 6.16 seconds.

5.2 X 1.10 = 6.16 seconds
This means the energy is relatively EQUAL, not more efficient or any less efficient, its just zero emission, that's it, that's all it is, there is no "more efficient", as using this context. Efficiency has absolutely nothing to do with zero emissions, absolutely nothing. Yet you people "tesla bandwagoners" believe you are paying for some high yielding efficiency that doesn't exist, passed what basic mechanical fundamentals that are brought to the table.

The TESLA that went up against the viper is a TESLA S 85D rated at 422HP, and it only marginally won the viper because the viper has a 17% transmission loss VS the TESLA's 7% transmission loss, its all relative.

The law of physics is that all energy is equal in the equivelant of forced motion (how fast would you like to zoom, zoom). Efficiency is a measured value in relative to costs that are factored. This also means anyone paying into TESLA is over paying for those energy values.
At the end of all your banter the only difference is that a TESLA is 0 emission, relative to that same measured energy it costs 34% more for the same relative energy you are paying extra just to be concious about the enviornment.

jeffkruse wrote: »

Tesla builds the highest rated and safest cars on the road. Elons Power Wall will be 1/2 the price of the nearest competitor (once it comes out). And despite the CRS7 rocket failure Space X is on the verge of revolutionizing access to space. Again, his nearest competitors are twice the price with no down mass capability! [please no personal attacks on anyone. -BB]

from 2013-2014 out of TESLA production there were 4 known thermal runaway fires in the media releases, how many do you think there were that were un reported? I would double the number that the media has on record.

Power wall half the price? All talk. TESLA promised power walls begining this summer and summer is almost over, so when are we going to see this vapor ware?

Space X? Its all talk and a pipe dream so tesla can take in more grant's and government loans. You obviously have not been through the grant and loan process before. It looks great on paper to recieve the money, but does it ever become realize? For 90% of big businesses.....NO!

JoshK

That last post was another TL;DR. But the impression I got was you were comparing energy costs of gas vs electric, and saying gas is cheaper. Yes, it is. Gas gives you more energy for less money. The cool thing about electric is you can create it from so many sources besides gasoline. Hydro-electric, solar, wind, etc, etc. And best of all, gas generators for those emergency times when all the others let you down. But there is no way to make gasoline. It is stolen from prehistoric fuel tanks, and when it is gone, it's not gone.... it's in the air.
The flexibility of electric is unmatched.

PS - If nobody sees the edits on post #27... No offense was intended by my joke.

SolarPowered

JoshK wrote: »

That last post was another TL;DR. But the impression I got was you were comparing energy costs of gas vs electric, and saying gas is cheaper. Yes, it is. Gas gives you more energy for less money. The cool thing about electric is you can create it from so many sources besides gasoline. Hydro-electric, solar, wind, etc, etc. And best of all, gas generators for those emergency times when all the others let you down. But there is no way to make gasoline. It is stolen from prehistoric fuel tanks, and when it is gone, it's not gone.... it's in the air.
The flexibility of electric is unmatched.

PS - If nobody sees the edits on post #27... No offense was intended by my joke.

Im a "restructuring" general class B contractor in california, all I do is run calculations on efficiency comparables all day every day.

As far as a compareable efficiencys, very much so is tied into energy costs.

Efficiency has everything to do with the cost impacts and analysis.

The gasoline engine by far has been the most dependable, its only been upto the last decade that the gasonline engine has reachead peak efficiency inline with emissions.5 decades ago the gasoline engine prior to catylitic converters and following emissions standards and practices were highly efficient in regards to mileage. 4 cylinder engines 50 years ago achieved 40miles per gallon.

If we were able to remove smog devices from gasoline engines the estimated level of enhanced efficiency would be 20%, greater than with smog devices. So weve adapted to make engines run at much higher compressions in order to achieve optimal efficiency output, even though smog devices will always hinder 20% of that engines total potential output.

Tesla presents a case that it is more efficient, well yes, and no. You have to see passed the sales pitches. The only thing that makes a tesla what it is, is by reducing the drive train so transmission losses are less. Its no different than a sport import tuner that can take a $5000 Honda prelude, add a $10,000.00 turbo set up, and have a front wheel drive train that only has 7% transmission loss, and can run under 10 seconds in the 1/4mile.

The only efficiencies an electric car has over gasoline powered, is there is no engine to run idle in stop and go traffic, oxygen "air" density doesn't matter as it is not internal combustion (so HP and Torque are not variable), and directly mounting the AC motor directly to the differential to reduce transmission loss.

A true measurement of efficiency is what it "costs" to get from point A to point B.

My girlfriend recently sold her 2008 toyota prius, she said it drove slow and made her feel old, so we traded it in for a 2014 scion FR-S. Minus the transmission loss from FR-S rear wheel drive. The engine is more efficient in acceleration, top speed, that we come to find out the trade off to drive a slower prius really didn't yield any serious efficient enhancement that the prius for what it is sold for is really worth its efficiciency values that toyota claims from a "sales" perspective. The FR-S for the energy it produces on high octane, and its MPG, far outweighs the prius and what they sell as efficiency by far.

Now when the Chevy bolt is released hopefully late next year I'm going to be one of the first to buy it. AC delco/Chevrolet have been making electric motors long before tesla, and if they are making promises for a fast, highly efficient zero emission car for under $40,000, I defenitely want to own it. That's efficiency, and that's impressive.