What the utility fears

Cariboocoot

Thinking out loud here. Try your own version.

Two forklift batteries like this:http://www.solar-electric.com/crinba24vo18.html
provides 1875 Amp hours @ 48 Volts cost $14,400

Xantrex XW 6048: http://www.solar-electric.com/xaxwhyin1.html
Capable of feeding the grid 6kW for 8 hours (48 kW hours daily) and recharging the battery (at 5% rate) in the other 16 hours cost $3,200

$17,800. Add misc. wiring and CP: <$20,000
Amortized over 10 years: $2,000 per year, $5.48 per day - call it $5.50 per day
$5.50 / 48 kW hours per day = $0.115 per kW hour
Factor in 40% efficiency loss from charging/discharging: $0.19 per kW hours

So if the TOU difference between buying utility power to charge the batteries and selling it back to the utility at "peak" times is greater than $0.20 per kW hour you make a profit.

A very slow profit requiring a $20k up front investment that would probably only yield a couple hundred per year (10% ROE) and requires ten years stability (HA!) but it's profit you are making not the utility.

Go ahead: try your own system design for this and see what you get. It doesn't work here of course because there's no TOU billing. Yet.

Panamretiree

Re: What the utility fears

Cariboocoot wrote: »

Thinking out loud here.

A very slow profit requiring a $20k up front investment that would probably only yield a couple hundred per year (10% ROE) and requires ten years stability (HA!) but it's profit you are making not the utility.

Like your thoughts; however, profit is only made after you recoup your initial investment, in this case no profit until after 10 years. At the ten year point you may have your own infrastructure costs (renew/upgrade of equipment) that negate the possibility of making a profit. This is why industry uses a 5 to 7 year amortization model to determine the feasibility of a major project. Industry also has the ability to depreciate its assets so that at the end of the 5 to 7 year period, it has recouped the cost of its equipment outlay from its taxes and starts getting "profit" because the equipment should last at least 10 years if not more. The average Joe citizen does not have this luxury.

It's all smoke and mirrors really.

JMHO

Cheers

Ernest

Cariboocoot

Re: What the utility fears

Capital investment is always amortized over expected lifespan. The repayment of that investment is the first $0.20 per kW hour price difference. Over that represent the profit.

But to see if the numbers really work you have to pick a specific rate plan, see whit the price difference is, and what the time difference is. If the peak demand purchase time is not long enough or the minimum pricing period not long enough then the buy/sell timing ratio doesn't work for time-shifting the kW hours even if he price difference is there.

I'm just saying this is what utilities are afraid people may do, not that it really is plausible to do it.

They really do not want to have to buy from small producers at all, it seems. And so we have the biggest threat to solar acceptance: obstruction.

BB.

Re: What the utility fears

Given that utility costs are (very roughly) 50% for fixed costs (distribution wiring, pole transformers, billing, etc.) and the other 50% is fuel/generation costs... People that conserve and/or use Grid Tied Solar, etc. can reduce their bill to near zero dollars per month (mine is ~$4-5 per month minimum charge)--But for the utility, the connection generates negative cash flow (still needs to maintain distribution/billing/maintenance system).

The utilities are beginning to shift from a low monthly (billing) charge with $$/kWH pricing to a higher fixed cost ($25-$40 per month are a few numbers that I have seen here) with low generation charges (reduce $$$/kWH to roughly 1/2 what it was under old rate plans).

All of a sudden, GT Solar and "extreme" conservation becomes less cost effective (you reduce your power use by 1/2, and your bill is only reduced by 1/4).

And, if you continue conservation/solar RE power production on the property, at some point the minimum utility charges become more than a small off grid system will cost (summer cabins are very susceptible to this sort of "squeeze"--use small amounts of power in summer, virtually no power the rest of the year).

We have at least one poster here that finally pulled the utility plug because of this. Cheaper to go solar+backup genset than to maintain utility power 12 months of the year.

And for the utility... They start losing customers but still have substantially similar distribution costs. Forcing higher utility charges on a smaller customer base.

Or--Utilities hire lobbyists for city hall/state PUC and get laws passed that all homes must be connected to utility power or they are red-tagged, cannot get building permits.

We are seeing the same thing happen now with vehicles and road taxes... Government gives incentives for high fuel efficiency and pure electric vehicles, and then finds that road taxes are going down (and people are driving more because of lower fuel costs due to efficiency improvements)... So now there a few states with new Hybrid and Electric Vehicle taxes of ~$100-$200 per year to pay for roads. And still "studies" being made to use GPS based taxing (including time of use, congestion charges)--But with the whole NSA spying thing--I hope that this is now a dead "solution".

-Bill

NorthGuy

Re: What the utility fears

You probably should expect rapid economic changes within the upcoming 10 years. Betting on TOU rates not changing, or even expecting that TOU is going to exist in 10 years, is not such a good idea.

ggunn

Re: What the utility fears

BB. wrote: »

So now there a few states with new Hybrid and Electric Vehicle taxes of ~$100-$200 per year to pay for roads.

Advocating for the Devil, what's wrong with that? Electric cars use and help to wear out roads, and they use the new roads when they are built. Why shouldn't their owners foot some of the bill for infrastructure repairs and expansion?

Cariboocoot

Re: What the utility fears

ggunn wrote: »

Advocating for the Devil, what's wrong with that? Electric cars use and help to wear out roads, and they use the new roads when they are built. Why shouldn't their owners foot some of the bill for infrastructure repairs and expansion?

And if you think that's "DA", try this:

Implementation of per-mile charge for all vehicles to "compensate" for the loss in gasoline tax revenues due to efficient/hybrid/electric cars, but no removal of those gasoline taxes so the people still driving about on petrol power pay twice. Guess who that would be? Right: the working poor who can't afford to shell out tens of thousands for a Nissan Leaf or Mitsubishi i-MiEV.

They never think these things through.

solar_dave

Re: What the utility fears

ggunn wrote: »

Advocating for the Devil, what's wrong with that? Electric cars use and help to wear out roads, and they use the new roads when they are built. Why shouldn't their owners foot some of the bill for infrastructure repairs and expansion?

Nothing I guess but I think road taxes should be based on weight and mileage. That is what wears the roads out, fuel consumption has little to do with it.

BB.

Re: What the utility fears

Actually, I have for years been saying the governments (road programs, etc.) will go broke with more efficient vehicles and electric cars.

Somebody plugs in their Electric Car--They are celebrated and city governments put in free charging stations and parking spaces. Different person takes some old frier oil, filters out the crud, and puts it in his diesel vehicle--And he is hauled off to jail and large fines for not paying road taxes.

The cost of fuel (raw materials, processing, shipping) is very similar between US and Europe--But the Europeans have derived large amounts of funding from their fuel taxes (I would guess, well beyond the costs of roads and maintenance--towards public transit, health and welfare, running governments, etc.).

Even in the US, the public transit systems are very doing very well if 1/3rd of their revenue comes from the fare box. In our county, the "disabled" transit only collects perhaps 5% of their revenue from the passengers. Last year, the average cost was $44.62 per trip ($3.75 per trip fare, with subsidies available).

I believe that road taxes should be paid... But we have a massive buracracy that is shoveling money from some pockets into other pockets (and keeping a fair amount for themselves). What I do not want is a GPS based system... At the very least, highly intrusive by government. And it probably takes only a few dollars worth of electronics to create a GPS jammer--And GPS navigation will be virtually useless, anywhere a vehicle is operating, very quickly as people attempt to beat the gps tax meter.

I don't know the answers--But I know what is currently happening is unsustainable and will eventually collapse if changes are not made.

-Bill

inetdog

Re: What the utility fears

BB. wrote: »

Somebody plugs in their Electric Car--They are celebrated and city governments put in free charging stations and parking spaces. Different person takes some old frier oil, filters out the crud, and puts it in his diesel vehicle--And he is hauled off to jail and large fines for not paying road taxes.

We are already seeing some states proposing special road tax assessments of up to $100 per year for hybrids and EVs. As far as I know none have passed yet.
One of the side effects of water conservation in Califonia, for a long time now, has been an increase in water rates because many of the infrastructure expenses remain constant.
Our county water supplier (an irrigation district) has increased the minimum parcel size for qualifying for agricultural (subsidized) water rates from 1 acre to 5 acres, and it may be going higher.

Panamretiree

Re: What the utility fears

A few years back in Victoria, BC, the local rag had an article about energy conservation and how it could in essence increase your electric bill. The premix was that the owed tiered users pay more than those who use a lot of electricity. Looked at our condo electric bill and we were paying more at the lower end. This coupled with the cost of achieving this "reward" was more expensive than just going with the flow.

Canada, as you know, went to the GST to get rid off all the various different tax rates on various items. The one tax the federal and provincial types never removed was the fuel excise tax that no on ever sees on their fuel receipt except if you buy gas from Ultramar. It is shown on the sticker that is on all gas pumps, but who reads this. This is a tax on tax, that is supposed to be illegal, unless you are the government.

The fuel excise tax is a huge windfall for the governments; however, it does not all end up on Canada's road infrastructure.

Just a few thoughts on a dreary rainy day here near the equator sipping on a cup of joe.

Cheers

Ernest

tmarch

Re: What the utility fears

Here we've had a permit system for fuel for years, any vehicle powered by anything but gasoline has to pay a certain figure, don't know what it is now as I don't run on propane any more, but did in the 80s.
What will have to happen IMHO is the utilities will go to the same system as the natural gas has gone to, so much for the power and so much for the line to run it on. And of course if you choose to go totally solar then they will charge you for the poles and lines to make it accessible to any future owner.
My utility already does this, charging me for poles and line that hasn't been used for years, they charge me but I don't pay. I also told them IF they remove the poles and don't fill the holes and I have any livestock injured from stepping in the holes it will be a VERY expensive animal. The poles and wire are still there.

BB.

Re: What the utility fears

Regarding EV/Alt fuel vehicle taxes:

http://grist.org/news/ev-owners-jolted-by-new-taxes/

The AP reports that at least 10 states have considered or passed legislation that would impose such fees on electric or hybrid cars.
...
That’s a big reason Virginia and Washington State are levying green-car taxes and New Jersey, North Carolina, Indiana, and at least four other states are considering doing the same. “The intent is that people who use the roads pay for them,” says Arizona State Senator Steve Farley, a Democrat who wrote a bill to tax electric-car drivers 1¢ for every mile they log on state highways under a yet-to-be-devised tracking system.
...
The policy looks especially arbitrary when more and more conventional cars are achieving fuel efficiency that’s comparable to some hybrid cars, Turner added.

-Bill

solar_dave

Re: What the utility fears

BB. wrote: »

Regarding EV/Alt fuel vehicle taxes:

http://grist.org/news/ev-owners-jolted-by-new-taxes/


-Bill

Yep but interestingly the bill that was introduced in AZ exempted the Chevy Volt because it is capable of driving on gasoline. :D:D:D

12,432 miles on 34.9 gallons!

ChrisOlson

Re: What the utility fears

Cariboocoot wrote: »

Go ahead: try your own system design for this and see what you get. It doesn't work here of course because there's no TOU billing. Yet.

In the future, rather than people trying to make a profit off it, I see the price of utility power getting increasingly expensive to the point where people will spend the money on the stuff to just not use the grid anymore. Some will go completely off-grid (until they start passing laws trying to prevent that, like they've done here).

I think our off-grid system here is cheaper per kWh than what people pay for utility power in California. It's only a matter of time before the madness in California spreads to other places.
--
Chris

Cariboocoot

Re: What the utility fears

Chris, you are right. Especially as utilities up the base charges because people conserve more so they're not making money off the per kW hour charges. In fact this has already happened in some locales.

Ironic, then, that the companies who so hate solar are in fact "promoting" it in a roundabout way. :roll:

ChrisOlson

Re: What the utility fears

Cariboocoot wrote: »

Chris, you are right. Especially as utilities up the base charges because people conserve more so they're not making money off the per kW hour charges. In fact this has already happened in some locales.

Ironic, then, that the companies who so hate solar are in fact "promoting" it in a roundabout way. :roll:

Yessir. The way I look at it is that the utility companies have never had any competition because they're basically regulated monopolies. The general public is not necessarily fond of any sort of monopoly, regulated or not. The solar industry is providing the first real competition the utility companies have ever seen - and it's a completely different model than the one they set up because home/roof installed solar is distributed generation and doesn't require the infrastructure that the business model of the utilities needs to work.

<grin> My long held position that distributed generation was the way to go in the first place will eventually become reality. More and more people will find that they can pretty much power their home with solar, and some will pull the plug when they figure out that a little genset is cheaper to run during bad solar conditions than paying the ever increasing fixed charges imposed by the utility.

It's only a matter of time. And yes, the utility probably is afraid of battery backup systems that could buy at off-peak and sell back during peak and make a profit off it. But as the whole system gets more expensive, I don't think that will be the primary consideration of the consumer - I think their primary consideration will be, "hey - we can put in a few kW of solar and just not use that expensive grid power."
--
Chris

Panamretiree

Re: What the utility fears

Was having a chat with my brother in northern Ontario about what we are doing down here with solar. He mentioned that there are starting to be a few grid-tie installs in the north and that people are stating they are making money on the install. I mentioned that that is probably not accurate, but the interesting issue is that there appears to be a ground swell regarding solar power generation. People are starting to talk about it and are wondering how it all works and if there are benefits for them.

Being a proponent of such, I had a lengthy discussion with him and said that he should think about it if not only for his garage. His electric bills are growing without using more juice. He is all for "free", or the thought of getting out from under the corporate utilities and the provincial government.

As Cariboocoot mentions, the companies that the companies who so hate solar are in fact "promoting" it in a roundabout way.

Cheers

Ernest

BB.

Re: What the utility fears

The governments have been "forcing" utilities to buy solar power at ~$0.10 to ~$0.50 per kWH or even more... Where actual power prices are 1/2 to 1/5 the actual price from a coal fired power plant/hydro projects/etc...

At this point, these fees are passed on to the rest of the "non-solar" customer base. And--Those folks are not dumb... Those with the property and the money see that their power bills are going up and they can save/make money with solar on their property.

Past a certain point, those that are left will not pay those excessive power fees and the power companies cannot raise rates high enough to cover the cost of the "Solar RE" power plus the spinning standby plants (and transmission lines) to supply power at night and when clouds pass overhead.

Also, from what I have seen, every "small solar GT power system" only supplies 1.0 PF ... The difference between the 1.0 PF and the "real" ~0.7 PF (i.e., 30% of the out of phase current) will still have to be supplied by the utility generators--Which for residential customers they cannot charge for (i.e., only pay for the 79% of current that is "in phase" and not the 30% that is "out of phase").

This is going to get messier before it gets better.

-Bill

NorthGuy

Re: What the utility fears

Panamretiree wrote: »

Was having a chat with my brother in northern Ontario about what we are doing down here with solar. He mentioned that there are starting to be a few grid-tie installs in the north and that people are stating they are making money on the install.

They have a program for grid-tie solar in Ontario called microFIT. They get $0.80/kW of all the generated exlectricity. At the same time, they can buy electricity from the grid at whatever current rates are ($0.10/kW), it just goes through a different meter. Contract is for many years. It's a gold mine.

Cariboocoot

Re: What the utility fears

NorthGuy wrote: »

They have a program for grid-tie solar in Ontario called microFIT. They get $0.80/kW of all the generated exlectricity. At the same time, they can buy electricity from the grid at whatever current rates are ($0.10/kW), it just goes through a different meter. Contract is for many years. It's a gold mine.

Curiously enough, the utility had to ask for a rate increase as a direct result of being forced to buy power at $0.80 per kW hour that they can only sell for $0.20 per kW hour.

Proof that politicians can not do basic accounting.

Slappy

Re: What the utility fears

http://grist.org/climate-energy/solar-panels-could-destroy-u-s-utilities-according-to-u-s-utilities/ interesting article

NorthGuy

Re: What the utility fears

Cariboocoot wrote: »

Proof that politicians can not do basic accounting.

That's what you shoud expect from them. The funny thing is, they're doing this with very best intentions

solar_dave

Re: What the utility fears

Slappy wrote: »

http://grist.org/climate-energy/solar-panels-could-destroy-u-s-utilities-according-to-u-s-utilities/ interesting article

While distributed solar may someday have an impact, it is so small now that the argument is a tempest in a teapot.

westbranch

Re: What the utility fears

I got remembering a bit of the Economics I had to study 40 years ago and remembered the term OLIGOPOLY and refreshed my memory...

from WIKIp An oligopoly is a market form in which a market or industry is dominated by a small number of sellers (oligopolists). Oligopolies can result from various forms of collusion which reduce competition and lead to higher costs for consumers. [1] Alternatively, oligopolies can see fierce competition because competitors can realize large gains and losses at each other's expense. In such oligopolies, outcomes for consumers can often be favorable. Think Cell phones...

Because there are few sellers, each oligopolist is likely to be aware of the actions of the others. The decisions of one firm influence and are influenced by the decisions of other firms. Strategic planning by oligopolists needs to take into account the likely responses of the other market participants.

The Province started the process of 'privatizing' the Utilities with Nat. Gas, it was a great flop as the sellers were charlatans, saying it will save the consumer $$ but the pitch was that gas would continue rising and it actually flat lined and then fell through the floor.


I think we need to be careful with the term MONOPOLY in this discussion as we are nearing an Oligopoly, at least in BC, where we would, similarly to Nat Gas, 'import' power to our homes from the grid but pay a private provider , that 'dumps' their very expensive power into the grid and theoretically their electrons make it to my house :roll::roll: . http://www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/acquiring_power/closed_offerings/clean_power_call/outcome.html

Presently the system is that BCHydro buys the power on a (very lucrative) long term (30 yr) contract and then 'blends' the electrons together, only to have to resell them at a Utilities Commission fixed-rate.. well below the purchase price (~-66%).

Panamretiree

Re: What the utility fears

NorthGuy wrote: »

They have a program for grid-tie solar in Ontario called microFIT. They get $0.80/kW of all the generated exlectricity. At the same time, they can buy electricity from the grid at whatever current rates are ($0.10/kW), it just goes through a different meter. Contract is for many years. It's a gold mine.

Looked at the program and like you say it has benefits for the people who do install the system. I also look at the maintenance cost of the system, the infrastructure required to put it on line and this is all at the expense of the person opting for the program, and who fixes the equipment if it goes down, the owner, and the micro fit program can audit the system and require upgrades as you go. Solar gets no escalation percentage according to the micro fit price schedule.

Another consideration that Ontario may be looking at is that the program for 2012 was to have 50mW on line from RE resources, and in doing this is looking to reduce the power it has to buy and/or produce and provide. The 2013 program was to add an additional 50mW of RE resources. So here is the issue with the difference in rates, is it cheaper for Ontario to buy and/or produce and deliver, or is it cheaper for Ontario to have joe public do it for them and pay them a fair price for doing this, thus allowing Ontario to shut down the less than environmentally friendly electricity producers.

Read the contract on the micro fit web site, especially the terms and conditions, and it seems reasonable. A lot of hoops to go through, and a lot of conditions one must meet. Would not want to have to move any time soon after entering into this contract.

Cheers

Ernest

Panamretiree

Re: What the utility fears

Was up north at my brother's place, not quite to Timmins, Ontario. Had a look at his last electric bill. Out of the $150.00, $94.00 was for delivery ($66.90), regulatory charge ($4.57), debt retirement charge ($4.55), HST on the bill ($17.27); however, he did get a $15.00 credit for the Ontario Clean Energy Benefit.

The delivery and regulatory rates went up 1 May 2013. The Clean Energy Benefit takes 10% off the cost of up to 3,000 kWh/month of electricity use.

The bill is divided into winter and summer rates, that are further divided into on-peak, mid-peak, and off-peak.

Using his numbers, you could amortize a $15K system over 10 years, with an earlier payback because rates and charges will go up.

He averages 16 to 18 kWh/day, with a significant increase in December because he decorates his house for Xmas.

Found these numbers very interesting and rather significant.

Food for thought.

Cheers

Ernest

ggunn

Re: What the utility fears

NorthGuy wrote: »

That's what you shoud expect from them. The funny thing is, they're doing this with very best intentions

Best for whom?

15 characters

NorthGuy

Re: What the utility fears

ggunn wrote: »

Best for whom?

Politicians ....

Elke

Re: What the utility fears

I don't think this will be an issue - at least here in California.

The net metering agreements with or without TOU are going to expire in 2015 as it stands right now. And I bet it won't get renewed, if the utilities keep pushing like they have been. There is a strong anti-net metering, anti residential PV system force here in the state, and the force is building.

Unfortunately, my comments on this issue are buried in the thread "New Outback Equipment Cooling Fans Screaming Loud - Is This Normal?" We went from trouble with the new equipment to not being able to use it, because the utility is denying us and a hundred other customers interconnection. The utilities fear loss of profit and power. They would rather build another coal fired or nuclear power plant in our neighborhood.

BB.

Re: What the utility fears

I think a similar thing happened in Canada (Ontario)... A couple years ago, there were lots of people signing up for "FIT" (which was something like $0.80 per kWH payments).

The local power company started refusing connections to people that had already gone through the approval hoops (utility and local inspectors), and then, when it came time to actually connect the system--they were refused.

If they were told a reason why, it was because they were at the end of a distribution circuit and that the circuit already had the maximum amount of GT Solar that the circuit could support--And the customer had to wait for the utility to upgrade the line sometime in the future (no dates, no promises).

heynow999 wrote: »

I'm in Ontario where we have the generous 80 cent/kwhr feed-in-tariff. The application process is complicated. There have been many changes to the procedure, and many deadlines for foreign content vs domestic content. I have jumped over all the hurdles so far but with the end finally in sight my local hydro company has dropped a bomb on me.

I have 2.5 kw on my house already and I am trying to incease it by 3.3 kw. I put in my application to the OPA who oversee the program, got approved, installed it, then sent in the paperwork to my hydro company to connect it too the grid. Here is what they said.

"However, some applicants are facing system constraints and will not be able to connect until system upgrades are made.

Based on our analysis, we have determined that your project is impacted by system constraints. We regret to inform you that we are unable to provide you with an offer to connect your microFIT project at this time."

So first problem is I submitted all the paperwork properly and in the correct order so how can they now say I can't connect?

Because my system is a "micro" project there is no "connection impact assessment" so there should be no reason to deny my connection. It is supposed to be a rubber stamp. My system will be 5.8kw which would put out a maximium of 24 amps. I have a 200 amp service with a transformer on my front lawn and the system can't handle 24 amps!!! I am dumbfounded.

My plan of attack is to point out how small the system is, and that I am already connected. Next I will point out that there is not supposed to be a connection impact assessment. The hydro co. is supposed to respond to a connection request in 15 days, they took more than 3 months!

Any other ideas would be appreciated.

heynow999 wrote: »

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/12/kelly-mcparland-ontario-quietly-reverses-field-on-wind-solar-energy/

"Added to McGuinty’s problems with wind are similar signs of trouble on the solar front. After strongly encouraging individual solar projects, and offering outrageously generous pricing on solar-generated power, the province unexpectedly announced last summer it was slashing the rate it would pay on some projects. On Friday, hundreds more Ontarians were told that installations they’d erected at the behest of the government can’t be connected to the provincial grid because of technical problems. Rural residents, some of whom have invested large amounts in solar generating operations, will be left high and dry. The Toronto Star reports:

“I’ve got $70,000 sitting right out in my backyard,” said Brian Wilson, who lives near Belleville, of his 10-kilowatt solar array. “I can go two doors down and they’ve got $70,000 invested, too.”

But they’ve both been told that they can’t connect to the electrical grid because of technical issues.

“It’s a mess,” says Kim Doherty of Farmed Energy Inc., who supplies solar equipment. He started getting calls from clients this week, saying they’d been told no connections are available for their projects.

One of his clients, a father-and-son team near Strathroy, made a $170,000 down payment on solar equipment, and built four concrete support platforms at a cost of $20,000 each, Doherty said

Read more: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/12/kelly-mcparland-ontario-quietly-reverses-field-on-wind-solar-energy/#ixzz1DyWEnN4O
"

Cariboocoot wrote: »

My American friends;

You have just got a sampling of the Canadian nightmare known as "Crown Corporations". They aren't answerable to anyone.

At least BC Hydro didn't go whacky and offer to pay outrageous sums for grid-tie power. At ten cents per kW hour, our power is absurdly cheap.

I have not heard anything since about what eventually happened.

-Bill