Cost of EV Batteries Not Expected to Drop Anytime Soon

BB.

Rapid EV Battery Cost Declines Not Realistic?

The great hope for electric vehicles (EVs) is for a rapid decline in the costs of batteries. An article in the Pro section of the Wall Street Journal reports on skepticism from the US National Academies of Science and Toyota that a rapid battery cost decline is possible. Recommend you read in full if you are seriously interested in the debate about the prospects for EV battery costs.

The Academies and Toyota Motor Corp. have publicly said they don't think the Department of Energy goals are achievable and that cost reductions are likely to be far lower. It likely will be 20 years before costs fall 50%—not the three or so years the DOE projects for an even greater reduction—according to an Academies council studying battery costs. The council was made up of nearly a dozen researchers in the battery field.

Even in lithium batteries other minerals make up a substantial portion of total costs. So just cheaper manufacturing will only go so far. On the other hand, costs of copper or cobalt or other minerals are kind of like once-in-a-lifetime costs for car buyers because at the end of a battery's useful life it can be recycled to extract out the most valuable minerals. So the trade-in value of an old battery will partially offset the cost of a replacement battery.

Currently, one estimate of the Nissan Leaf battery cost is around $15k for a $33k vehicle.

It appears that any major reduction in costs (like the ~35% reduction in L-I battery costs for cell phone market over 2000-2008 ) are already baked into the battery market for the next decade or two.

-Bill

ggunn

Re: Cost of EV Batteries Not Expected to Drop Anytime Soon

BB. wrote: »

Rapid EV Battery Cost Declines Not Realistic?


Currently, one estimate of the Nissan Leaf battery cost is around $15k for a $33k vehicle.

It appears that any major reduction in costs (like the ~35% reduction in L-I battery costs for cell phone market over 2000-2008) are already baked into the battery market for the next decade or two.

-Bill

(...2008) = (...two thousand eight).

BB.

Re: Cost of EV Batteries Not Expected to Drop Anytime Soon

Thanks. Fixed.

-Bill

Seven

Re: Cost of EV Batteries Not Expected to Drop Anytime Soon

I have dealt with the batteries from the Honda insight for years, and if anything, they are more expensive now than they used to be. It is just an assist battery and with core charge it is around $6K.

BB.

Re: Cost of EV Batteries Not Expected to Drop Anytime Soon

Well some good news:

Nissan Leaf becomes least expensive 5-seat EV with massive price drop

In a roundtable interview today at the North American International Auto Show, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn announced a $6,400 price drop for the base-model 2013 Nissan Leaf. Last year's base model was $35,200, while the new base-level 2013 Leaf S starts at $28,800. Ghosn says the new prices make the Leaf the least expensive five-seater electric for sale in the US.

Some of the lower cost is due to a difference in content from last year's low-end model to this year's. But a sizable portion can be chalked up to the Leaf's production moving from Japan to Tennessee. The 2013 Leaf is not only assembled in the US now, but its lithium-ion batteries and the car's electric motors are manufactured in the same southern state.

The Leaf SV will be priced from $31,820 for 2013 compared to $35,200 last year. The high-end Leaf SL now starts at $34,840, down from the 2012 model's $37,250. These models also have differences in content. One big one is a new 6.6-kWh charger that reduces charging times pretty dramatically.

Plus there is still a ~$7,500 fed income tax credit.

-Bill

westbranch

Re: Cost of EV Batteries Not Expected to Drop Anytime Soon

6.6 Kw charger gives 0 to 80% charge in 4 hrs
3.6 Kw charger gives 0 to 80% charge in 8 hrs

wonder what that time change costs?