Bottom For Solar Prices

WindsunWindsun Solar Expert Posts: 1,164 ✭✭
We are officially (more or less) declaring that the bottom has been hit in solar panel prices. I doubt that prices will get any lower to any significant degree.

Over the past 3 months we have seen no significant price reductions from any of the manufacturers that we buy from, and one of the major ones has indicated that panel prices will probably be going up by a few cents per watt in the near future.

This is not really surprising - panel prices have been selling near or below the actual cost of manufacture for nearly a year now, and it appears that most of the less viable company failures have happened or are in the works. There may be a few more companies that go under and some M&A, but I do not see anything that would indicate further price reductions.
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Comments

  • JuramJuram Solar Expert Posts: 36
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    This.....which is why its important for people to understand that as these incentives go away, the price of solar will only continue to get more expensive. At this point, I don't see installed prices getting below $2.80 a watt, which is still terrific, hell a few years ago people were paying $6.00 a watt with a $3.00 a watt rebate but I think for a lot of people its approaching true "$#$# or get off the pot" time for lack of a better description.
  • MangasMangas Solar Expert Posts: 537 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Now, if we could only get the best practices U.S. manufactured battery prices down. . .
    Ranch Off Grid System: 2 x pair stacked Schneider XW 5548+ Plus inverters (4), 2 x Schneider MPPT 80-600 Charge Controllers, 2 Xanbus AGS Generator Start and Air Extraction System Controllers, 64 Trojan L16 REB 6v 375 AH Flooded Cel Batteries w/Water Miser Caps, 44 x 185 Sharp Solar Panels, Cummins Onan RS20 KW Propane Water Cooled Genset, ICF House Construction, 2 x High Efficiency Variable Speed three ton Central A/C 220v compressors, 2 x Variable Speed Air Handlers, 2 x HD WiFi HVAC Zoned System Controllers
  • The Only SargeThe Only Sarge Solar Expert Posts: 164 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    I now see Texas Solar Juice offering to install the system, and sell the electricity it makes, @ 20% less than the power company per kilowatt. About 10% of system cost for hook up and activation is all that is required.

    I think we shall see folks getting "creative" but I like it.
  • rollandelliottrollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 755 ✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Well I was quoted a 10KW system at 1.05/w a month ago and now I get a quote for $.77 a watt if you buy the inverters with the panels. And their inverter prices are not jacked up to compensate either. this is with a reputable company I have dealt with for about a year and half out of Texas. I would not be surprised it companies start selling solar laminates (no aluminum frame) just to reduce their per watt price down about 20 cents or so and look more attractive. Edited to add,,,,,this does not appear to be a one time bankrupency like evergreen either, just normal "sale" pricing on these German panels.
  • westbranchwestbranch Solar Expert Posts: 4,860 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Looks like our man in MIAMI has a new low price of $.38 for some 190w used 'well known manufacturer' the rest are similar prices to before.
     
    KID #51B  4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM
    CL#29032 FW 2126/ 2073/ 2133 175A E-Panel WBjr, 3 x 4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM 
    Cotek ST1500W 24V Inverter,OmniCharge 3024,
    2 x Cisco WRT54GL i/c DD-WRT Rtr & Bridge, Hughes1100 Sat Modem
    Eu3/2/1000i Gens, 1680W & E-Panel/WBjr to come, CL #647 asleep
    West Chilcotin, BC, Canada
  • rollandelliottrollandelliott Solar Expert Posts: 755 ✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    by the time you pay for shipping probably closer to 45 cetns a watt,
    given that they are used and probably will only last 80 % of a new panel, you are not saving much compared to a new panel that sells for 70 cents a watt with shipping included. 80% of 70cents is around 55cent per watt.
  • tangk1tangk1 Registered Users Posts: 4
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Newest price :

    Inside China cheapest : 200W PV = HK$687 (Not include transport) ! Transport to Hong Kong: total around HK$870 (with PV)
  • CariboocootCariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices
    tangk1 wrote: »
    Newest price :

    Inside China cheapest : 200W PV = HK$687 (Not include transport) ! Transport to Hong Kong: total around HK$870 (with PV)

    Current exchange: $7.76 HK to $1 US = $0.88 per Watt for the panel. But that is not in the US.
    Right now NAWS has a listing for Conergy 245 Watt panels @ $223; $0.91 per Watt.
  • westbranchwestbranch Solar Expert Posts: 4,860 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Comes to $.56 US/ watt in Hong Kong

    1 HKD = $.129 US
     
    KID #51B  4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM
    CL#29032 FW 2126/ 2073/ 2133 175A E-Panel WBjr, 3 x 4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM 
    Cotek ST1500W 24V Inverter,OmniCharge 3024,
    2 x Cisco WRT54GL i/c DD-WRT Rtr & Bridge, Hughes1100 Sat Modem
    Eu3/2/1000i Gens, 1680W & E-Panel/WBjr to come, CL #647 asleep
    West Chilcotin, BC, Canada
  • CariboocootCariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Hmm. I got a different exchange rate (when I remembered to look).

    It's been a long, difficult day here.
  • westbranchwestbranch Solar Expert Posts: 4,860 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    No sweat,

    I use http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/

    add, its the same rate , other way round.

    $870 HKD > $112.12 US / 200w= $.56/watt
     
    KID #51B  4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM
    CL#29032 FW 2126/ 2073/ 2133 175A E-Panel WBjr, 3 x 4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM 
    Cotek ST1500W 24V Inverter,OmniCharge 3024,
    2 x Cisco WRT54GL i/c DD-WRT Rtr & Bridge, Hughes1100 Sat Modem
    Eu3/2/1000i Gens, 1680W & E-Panel/WBjr to come, CL #647 asleep
    West Chilcotin, BC, Canada
  • willardjwillardj Registered Users Posts: 15
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    Give it time the gov. will jack up the cost of all other forms of energy so they can jack back up the cost of solar. Matter of time.
  • hfrikhfrik Registered Users Posts: 15
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    From europe I can tell you that there is a lot of possible cost reduction if more people per km² buy solar systems. WE have standard prices for large systems of 1€/Wp (1,3US$), and about 1,3€/Wp (1,69US$) for typical rooftop systems here (5-10kW). I guess our installation and trading companies are much more efficient than they are today in the U.S. (I think there was a research project of the U.S. Gouvernment on the causes for the price differences between germany and the US, which found that both are using modules etc... starting with about the same factory prices, but on each and every step afterwards the cost in the german market was significant lower, due to higher experience, more and longer specialisation, and especially due to more customers per area.
  • SolarPoweredSolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    I believe there is still too much over supply from china, and its not going to stop any time soon, as long as the chinese government continues to persist on dominating in renewable energy, mostly due to the high cost of fossil fuel consumption, and development that is occurring to their country.
    Most companies just hop on the china bandwagon to reduce their costs further (I.E) Canadian solar, SPK, Perlight, etc......
    Mono Crystalline by far has been driven down that it is inline with poly crystalline, unless its a sunpower monocrystaline or schott polycrystalline because of proprietary reasons, and manufacturing isn't from china, those panels still sell over $1.40, but yield high conversion efficiency rates. Any manufacturer selling a panel between 11.5 to 18% conversion efficient are all in the same ballpark of under a $1 per watt.
    I spoke and did a trade with one of my good solar buds the other day of how the pricing for 12V panels still remains high in the $1.20 range, it seems to be the gold that every one is in search for to reach that pivotal point of under a $1 a watt. I just traded him (2) 100 watt mono 12V chinese panels 17.73%, for (1) 228 watt serengeti poly ( all brand new so I get 28 watts for free).
    On the commercial scale, anything over 50kwh, finance companies still have the bulk of purchasing power at roughly $.65 a watt AVG. Its the finance companies that are controlling the supply and demand of panels. Once finance companies slow down on the purchase of solar panels, mostly because of the extinction of the 30% government tax credit, solar panel pricing will have a teetering effect on supply and demand between commercial and residential markets.
    On residential under 25kwh most consumers are buying at a price point of about $.90 a watt AVG.
    Truth is we don't need the tax credit, when the tax credit started panels were 400% higher in cost 7 years ago. The extinction of the tax credit will slow down finance companies from buying solar panels, then that pricing between residential and commercial will even out. Before you know it because of the relief of the tax credit "all" panels are going to sell for .78 watt. Supply and demand of economics.
  • Dave AngeliniDave Angelini Solar Expert Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    The real bottom may not be the price but rather the quality issues from pricing too low. My last trade magazine Solar Pro had quite a few pages devoted to quality and the issues of Panel companies who have to cut corners. One of my favorite panels the Panasonic HIT modules (old Sanyo) have made in Japan on them.
    "we go where power lines don't" Sierra Mountains near Mariposa/Yosemite CA
     http://members.sti.net/offgridsolar/
    E-mail offgridsolar@sti.net

  • orangechenorangechen Registered Users Posts: 1
    In recent years, the price of solar panels that decline, but it will not suddenly drop to very low, can only say that with the development of technology, the cost of the entire solar energy will gradually decrease.
  • mike95490mike95490 Solar Expert Posts: 7,284 ✭✭✭✭
    orangechen wrote: »
    In recent years, the price of solar panels that decline, but it will not suddenly drop to very low, can only say that with the development of technology, the cost of the entire solar energy will gradually decrease.

    cosmic. I'm still working on grasping that thought completly
    Powerfab top of pole PV mount | Listeroid 6/1 w/st5 gen head | XW6048 inverter/chgr | Iota 48V/15A charger | Morningstar 60A MPPT | 48V, 800A NiFe Battery (in series)| 15, Evergreen 205w "12V" PV array on pole | Midnight ePanel | Grundfos 10 SO5-9 with 3 wire Franklin Electric motor (1/2hp 240V 1ph ) on a timer for 3 hr noontime run - Runs off PV ||
    || Midnight Classic 200 | 10, Evergreen 200w in a 160VOC array ||
    || VEC1093 12V Charger | Maha C401 aa/aaa Charger | SureSine | Sunsaver MPPT 15A

    solar: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Solar
    gen: http://tinyurl.com/LMR-Lister ,

  • westbranchwestbranch Solar Expert Posts: 4,860 ✭✭✭✭
    Mike, did you see that recent RSS post stating a new process (vapourware? cant remember name) would drop prices by 10 fold or more if it comes to market? looked back a few days and no find...
     
    KID #51B  4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM
    CL#29032 FW 2126/ 2073/ 2133 175A E-Panel WBjr, 3 x 4s 140W to 24V 900Ah C&D AGM 
    Cotek ST1500W 24V Inverter,OmniCharge 3024,
    2 x Cisco WRT54GL i/c DD-WRT Rtr & Bridge, Hughes1100 Sat Modem
    Eu3/2/1000i Gens, 1680W & E-Panel/WBjr to come, CL #647 asleep
    West Chilcotin, BC, Canada
  • littleharbor2littleharbor2 Solar Expert Posts: 681 ✭✭✭✭
    Re: Bottom For Solar Prices

    I believe there is still too much over supply from china, and its not going to stop any time soon, as long as the chinese government continues to persist on dominating in renewable energy, mostly due to the high cost of fossil fuel consumption, and development that is occurring to their country.
    Most companies just hop on the china bandwagon to reduce their costs further (I.E) Canadian solar, SPK, Perlight, etc......
    Mono Crystalline by far has been driven down that it is inline with poly crystalline, unless its a sunpower monocrystaline or schott polycrystalline because of proprietary reasons, and manufacturing isn't from china, those panels still sell over $1.40, but yield high conversion efficiency rates. Any manufacturer selling a panel between 11.5 to 18% conversion efficient are all in the same ballpark of under a $1 per watt.
    I spoke and did a trade with one of my good solar buds the other day of how the pricing for 12V panels still remains high in the $1.20 range, it seems to be the gold that every one is in search for to reach that pivotal point of under a $1 a watt. I just traded him (2) 100 watt mono 12V chinese panels 17.73%, for (1) 228 watt serengeti poly ( all brand new so I get 28 watts for free).
    On the commercial scale, anything over 50kwh, finance companies still have the bulk of purchasing power at roughly $.65 a watt AVG. Its the finance companies that are controlling the supply and demand of panels. Once finance companies slow down on the purchase of solar panels, mostly because of the extinction of the 30% government tax credit, solar panel pricing will have a teetering effect on supply and demand between commercial and residential markets.
    On residential under 25kwh most consumers are buying at a price point of about $.90 a watt AVG.
    Truth is we don't need the tax credit, when the tax credit started panels were 400% higher in cost 7 years ago. The extinction of the tax credit will slow down finance companies from buying solar panels, then that pricing between residential and commercial will even out. Before you know it because of the relief of the tax credit "all" panels are going to sell for .78 watt. Supply and demand of economics.


    As far as Sunpower being not made in China, here is one of many Chinese sellers offering "Sunpower" Maxeon cells;

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/350-Pcs-Monocrystalline-Solar-Cells-5x5-Sunpower-Maxeon-C60-For-DIY-Solar-Panel-/121835986436?hash=item1c5dfd9e04:g:aMMAAOSw5ZBWHTDn

    Probably knock offs considering sunpower;s exclusive sales model.  Can anybody verify where Sunpower cells are mfg,'d?

    2.1 Kw Suntech 175 mono, Classic 200, Trace SW 4024 ( 15 years old  but brand new out of sealed factory box Jan. 2015), Bogart Tri-metric, 700 ah @24 volt AGM battery bank. Plenty of Baja Sea of Cortez sunshine.

  • mike_smike_s Registered Users Posts: 39 ✭✭
    Windsun said:
    We are officially (more or less) declaring that the bottom has been hit in solar panel prices. I doubt that prices will get any lower to any significant degree.

    TPIWWP (This Post Is Worthless Without Prices).

    A quick google says installed (which means increased labor has been more than offset by decreased panel/electronic prices) residential costs have decreased by ~25% since this was claimed.

    Why is this still a sticky, 4 years after creation and a year after the last comment? Especially since it's incorrect?


  • BB.BB. Super Moderators Posts: 26,837 admin
    I have removed the sticky.

    - Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    BB. said:
    I have removed the sticky.

    - Bill
    Did you use goo-gone? Or acetone? Lacquer thinner can work well also.
  • BB.BB. Super Moderators Posts: 26,837 admin
    Green Clean. Biodegradable.

    Next time, will try BleachBit or like with a cloth.

    - Bill
    Near San Francisco California: 3.5kWatt Grid Tied Solar power system+small backup genset
  • littleharbor2littleharbor2 Solar Expert Posts: 681 ✭✭✭✭
    And I thought it could be done with a simple keystroke.  :*

    2.1 Kw Suntech 175 mono, Classic 200, Trace SW 4024 ( 15 years old  but brand new out of sealed factory box Jan. 2015), Bogart Tri-metric, 700 ah @24 volt AGM battery bank. Plenty of Baja Sea of Cortez sunshine.

  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    Sure...in a perfect virtual world...or is that a virtually perfect world?
  • solarvicsolarvic Solar Expert Posts: 1,043 ✭✭✭
    I just bought some solar world panels because I wanted to support American Jobs.  I was about ready to buy panels that was made in Singapore but changed my mind to buy American when I started to think how China is taking our jobs. I retired from a foundry that tried to get in big with wind turbines.  Ge bought Enron and had our foundry develop methods to get the castings and metallurgy right. There were other foundrys that gave up before we got the pattern equipment. We had a learning curve and when we got them to a low scrap rate Ge wanted to cut the price. We cut them as much as we could then they wanted more. In the mean time the cost of allows really got high. So they moved off to China.  WE made hubs and gear cases for them.  We had the hubs so strong that we had a hard time breaking up the scrap ones so we could re melt them. There was a scrap crane dropping an 8 thousand iron ball on them at a 30 foot height and it would bounce and roll off the casting. Usually had to drop the ball 5 or 6 times to get the casting to crack and once you had a crack you could break it up. What makes me boil is the gov. pays GE and others SUBSIDYS  to make the turbines with US taxpayers money. If GE is going to take the subsidy they should be required to buy the parts in the USA to make them.  I am afraid the foundry isn,t going to survive because of China. Reasion I voted for Trump. Hope he can get this turned around where manufacturing is done in the good old USA again. Or Even Canada
  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    A single crystal of metal makes a part a lot stronger because a crack forms at the boundary of the crystal matrices, no boundary means no where for a crack to form.
  • solarvicsolarvic Solar Expert Posts: 1,043 ✭✭✭
    This foundry started in 1876 and knows how to make world class castings.  It is areal art to make a successful quality casting. The gate system has to be designed right. The metallurgy has to be right and pour speed, temperature and cooling time has to be right so the casting comes out right.   Just about any casting can be broken if you have the right tool unless the walls are 2 feet thick then you have to burn them into pieces small enough to get into the furnace. We made castings up to about 80 ton. It takes a preety big truck with at least 3 trailers connected  to haul one that big. Some have a diesel engine on the tail end trailer to steer the back trailer.
  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    Wow. 1876. That's some old technology there. They have all new methods for forming single crystal casting now. It's pretty amazing to see.
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