Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

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Steven Lake
Steven Lake Solar Expert Posts: 402 ✭✭
in General Solar Power Topics #1
http://www.offgridworld.com/solar-and-wind-power-now-cheaper-than-coal-power-in-the-u-s/

This should bring a smile to your faces. :D
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  • solarix
    solarix Solar Expert Posts: 713 ✭✭
    #2
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    Another misleading headline that leaves out the part about "when climate change costs and other health impacts are factored in" As much as this ought to be and we would like it to be, everybody else doesn't do this - they just care about what is cheapest period. Solar is a long way from being the cheapest energy when money alone is the only factor.
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #3
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    All I know is that in my location the cost of solar or wind produced energy is still several times that of the utility's hydroelectric. That is what matters. Blanket statements are rarely accurate.

    But just maybe things are getting better.
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  • SolarPowered
    SolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    #4
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    All I know is that this time last year I was estimating for solar projects at about $3.10 per watt (labor and material)

    Now I am estimating projects at about $2.91 per watt ( labor and material)

    That pricing is prior to federal tax credit and CSI/PBI rebate. The price is so cheap that the client's that I have are going as big as they can, unfortunately NFPA set backs are in effect in january which is adding a small problem for some of my clients.
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  • Cariboocoot
    Cariboocoot Banned Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭
    #5
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    Well $2.91 per Watt installed is certainly better than $3.10. But how is production vs. capital expense amortized over expected lifespan?

    In some places people can definitely see a reasonable payback time (especially if tax credits can be utilized). Unfortunately "some places" are not everywhere. Our government wouldn't even think about giving someone a break. The Provincial one actually removed incentives for conservation!

    It's a strange and varied world.
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  • SolarPowered
    SolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    #6
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S
    Cariboocoot wrote: »
    Well $2.91 per Watt installed is certainly better than $3.10. But how is production vs. capital expense amortized over expected lifespan?

    In some places people can definitely see a reasonable payback time (especially if tax credits can be utilized). Unfortunately "some places" are not everywhere. Our government wouldn't even think about giving someone a break. The Provincial one actually removed incentives for conservation!

    It's a strange and varied world.

    Well the systems that I am designing and building I've been maximizing the roofs without set backs looking to achieve roughly 20% higher production than what is necessary from year 1 energizing, according to 1% depreciation annualized from panels, so by year 20 the system should be fulfilled. At a $2.91 estimated price target my clients are seeing a break even return on investment on year 5, its weird how it works but under the CSI/PBI (performance based incentive) California/Power company pay out .09 per kwh supplied back into the grid. Without the PBI qualification, if its just CSI, the power company will still pay out but the dividend is much less at roughly .03 kwh.

    There are 2 reasons for the offset n pricing from last year.

    1) micro inverter systems are cheaper( no DC combiners needed, and less upsizing of conductor for derate)
    2) PV is cheaper, according to last years pricing this time last year my clients were purchasing mono crystalline at $.98 per watt AVG, where as now we are making bulk purchasesd on canadian solar mono's for roughly .85 per watt, and now I've found ways to bipass the shipping charges on panels which typically inflates the cost per watt by .04~.06.

    The big problem which is going to slow down growth and the ROI, is the NFPA set backs, that 3' rule around surrounding arrays, with 4' walking path ways for fire fighters is estimated to reduce system sizes by 25%~30% which translates that without that increased production starting at year 1, it makes it harder to qualify for the PBI, and then it sets back the return on investment any where from year 8 to year 15 depending on the size of real estate there is to offer.
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  • verdigo
    verdigo Solar Expert Posts: 428 ✭✭
    #7
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    Wow. I can get off the grid and solar will be cheaper than the coal powered grid.
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  • Steven Lake
    Steven Lake Solar Expert Posts: 402 ✭✭
    #8
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    Verdigo, we're not off grid yet, but we've been trying like crazy. One thing I've learned about going totally off grid through much trial and error is that you need redundancy. IE, more than one means by which to generate power. Solar is good for most applications, but if you have hydro and wind available, that helps too.
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  • SolarPowered
    SolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    #9
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    Its actually cheaper to stay on grid.

    1- net metering allows for you to get tax free money back per kWh (for now), so power you don't use gets used and you get money back at a little less than whole sale, unless the state you live in offers a performance based premium rate for your power
    2-Off grid battery systems are engineered to be larger research peukerts law which deals with battery discharging, there are more losses per watt than staying on grid.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peukert's_law
    3-maintenance of battery banks is a P.I.T.A
    4-Lets face it, homes are AC power not DC, since micro inverters revolutionized solar, efficiency of systems are higher not relying on string inverters with PV strings of arrays that will only output to the lower power tolerance of a panel in that string. Voltage drop on AC isn't as bad, so the sooner that conversion occurs the more efficient the system is for use.

    Now hybrid isn't bad idea, it qualifys for the tax credit and the only time the battery system would need to be used is when the grid is down, so with a isolation switch to disconnect from grid, then activate the island inverter you could supply minimal battery power to allow operation of the grid tied inverter in isolation from grid.
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  • drees
    drees Solar Expert Posts: 482 ✭✭✭
    #10
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S
    SolarPowered wrote: »
    Now I am estimating projects at about $2.91 per watt ( labor and material)
    Wow, how are you managing to do that in California while still making money? Where in California are you, at that price it's not worth the trouble of DIY!

    3 years ago I installed my own system and the panels/micro-inverters alone cost me $3.10/W (at wholesale prices). Total cost out of pocket was around $2.40/W after rebates/credits and that's with my own labor. Now I can pay you $2.91/W and have a net price around $2/W after fed tax credit. Looks like there may still be a CSI rebate in my area ($0.20/W) - that would get it down to $1.76/W installed after rebates/credits.

    Man - I really need to look at adding another 2 kW to my system! If the system runs 20 years that's a cost of only $0.06/kWh!
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  • SolarPowered
    SolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    #11
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S
    drees wrote: »
    Wow, how are you managing to do that in California while still making money? Where in California are you, at that price it's not worth the trouble of DIY!


    Man - I really need to look at adding another 2 kW to my system! If the system runs 20 years that's a cost of only $0.06/kWh!

    I know what you mean. I have to back each system with a 10 year labor satisfaction warranty against defects and engineering since I submit most of all my designs to the city. Most recent contract for a 7.54kWh system, approximate time for installation 1 week, crew of 2 men, myself and NABCEP tech.
    Here is the break down.
    Micro Inverters Enphase $.52 per watt
    Canadian Solar Mono Crystalline CS6-260M $.85 per watt
    2 disconnects rigid pipe, roof blocks, unirac, monitor system $.56 per watt
    Installation $.98 per watt

    After paying my tech I make $4500 in a week. Its not a bad job, before I had my license I was making that in 2 weeks. The down fall is the liability of the 10 year satisfaction if a minor defect goes wrong I get the call and have to fix it, which at that point I would be losing money. My system are good though haven't received a call back, and if its a manufacturer defect I put it on the home owner who has to fill out the registration cards
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  • mahendra
    mahendra Solar Expert Posts: 181 ✭✭✭
    #12
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S

    i think that article is implying its cheaper in large scale really large scale.And i do not think the people who are studying these thing have much idea about the actual technology.For example we have some governmental study task force who just trying to justify some thing by looking at just falling solar panel prices and do not take thing s like inverters,.wiring or batteries into consideration.
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  • verdigo
    verdigo Solar Expert Posts: 428 ✭✭
    #13
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S
    Steven Lake wrote: »
    Verdigo, we're not off grid yet, but we've been trying like crazy. One thing I've learned about going totally off grid through much trial and error is that you need redundancy. IE, more than one means by which to generate power. Solar is good for most applications, but if you have hydro and wind available, that helps too.

    I was being a little facetious. Although I would also like to be totally off grid. The more I learn the further that seems to move in the opposite direction. My area is not so good for wind and most of our streams are under ground.
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  • SolarPowered
    SolarPowered Solar Expert Posts: 626 ✭✭✭
    #14
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    Re: Solar and Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Coal Power in the U.S
    mahendra wrote: »
    i think that article is implying its cheaper in large scale really large scale.And i do not think the people who are studying these thing have much idea about the actual technology.For example we have some governmental study task force who just trying to justify some thing by looking at just falling solar panel prices and do not take thing s like inverters,.wiring or batteries into consideration.

    Since micro inverters came on the market though string inverter prices have been falling in order to to stay inline with the lower costs of owning a micro inverter system.
    I've seen SMA pricing fall roughly 10% in the last 2 years. Pretty much all but combiners, disconnects, and racking have all stayed the same.
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