Tesla - Solar Roof Tiles

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Comments

  • bill von novakbill von novak Solar Expert Posts: 711 ✭✭✭✭
    Estragon said:

    I have no opinion on the value of Tesla. If you made money on it, good on you. The point of the quote is that there is no rational way to value this type of company.
    That's pretty silly.  You can value it by comparison to other companies engaged in similar markets with similar business models.  You can value it by the value of its IP.  You can value it by the value of its assets, including its physical plant.  You can value it by public estimation of its valuation (which, in publicly traded companies, is the same as its market cap.)  You can value it by taking present AP/AR and extending that based on present trends.

    People might argue "but I prefer a different method of valuation!" and that's fine.  But every day venture capitalists put values on companies with far less of a track record than Tesla (or SpaceX, or Solar City.)
  • ThomThom Solar Expert Posts: 169 ✭✭✭
    Is this about solar roof tiles or investments  ? 

    Thom 
    Off grid since 1984. 430w of panel, 300w suresine , 4 gc batteries 12v system, Rogue mpt3024 charge controller , air breeze windmill, Mikita 2400w generator
  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    edited June 5 #34
    I thought solar roof tiles were an investment. Or at least adding to the value of an investment, like a kitchen remodel or a new bathroom.
    So, to answer your question, yes. It is about solar roof tiles AND the company making them (and making history). Hence the title, 'Tesla-Solar roof tiles'.
  • mvasmvas Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭✭
    FORBES: Is the Rooftop Solar Industry Dying?
    "... About two years ago, I wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, The Hole In The Rooftop Solar-Panel Craze, where I argued that the federal government should stop subsidizing the rooftop solar-panel industry because greener, more economic alternatives are available (like utility-scale solar) ..."
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianpotts/2017/05/18/is-the-rooftop-solar-industry-dying/#2c97ad3b28aa
  • bill von novakbill von novak Solar Expert Posts: 711 ✭✭✭✭
    mvas said:
    FORBES: Is the Rooftop Solar Industry Dying?
    "... About two years ago, I wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, The Hole In The Rooftop Solar-Panel Craze, where I argued that the federal government should stop subsidizing the rooftop solar-panel industry because greener, more economic alternatives are available (like utility-scale solar) ..."
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianpotts/2017/05/18/is-the-rooftop-solar-industry-dying/#2c97ad3b28aa
    That's a pretty drastic position.  Rooftop solar is dying because its install rate is increasing "only" 3% a year?  (In other words, 375,000 new installs this year, 387,000 next year, 400,000 the year after that)  Given that these systems last 20-30 years, and are not disposable like cellphones, that's a pretty good ramp. 

    And the only way to save the industry is through products like this?  To quote - these "highly publicized new solar roof tiles are exactly the type of innovate product that could revive consumer interest in the industry."  I don't think it needs "reviving" nor will this product be a drastic change to the industry due to its high price.
  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    mvas said:
    FORBES: Is the Rooftop Solar Industry Dying?
    "... About two years ago, I wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, The Hole In The Rooftop Solar-Panel Craze, where I argued that the federal government should stop subsidizing the rooftop solar-panel industry because greener, more economic alternatives are available (like utility-scale solar) ..."
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianpotts/2017/05/18/is-the-rooftop-solar-industry-dying/#2c97ad3b28aa
    PT Barnum was right, there is one born every minute. Some writers write just to say they wrote something. It's all about grabbing clicks and pushing ads. Say something controversial and get paid.
  • mvasmvas Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭✭
    Tesla (SolarCity) & SunRun expected to resume PV sales in Nevada - Net-Metering is back ...
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-solar-nevada-idUSKBN18W2UT
  • LumisolLumisol Registered Users Posts: 374 ✭✭✭
    edited June 7 #39
    mvas said:
    Tesla (SolarCity) & SunRun expected to resume PV sales in Nevada - Net-Metering is back ...
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-solar-nevada-idUSKBN18W2UT
    I'd comment about Nevada's political environment, but some might not get the joke.
  • mvasmvas Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭✭
    " ... Elon Musk's First Tesla Solar Roof Is Here, and It Looks Amazing ..."
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-apos-first-tesla-095900366.html
  • SolraySolray Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭
    edited August 4 #41
    Wow. A roof that produces power for less than a roof that does not produce anything. Very cool.
    Once the model 3 is delivered, I may take the plunge on my own roof.
    Definately something to think about.
    Great tech.
  • littleharbor2littleharbor2 Solar Expert Posts: 704 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 4 #42
    Heavily manipulated numbers. This roof cost WAY more than a conventional roof with an equivalent KW typical array. We still don't know how they are going to make the thousands of electrical connections reliable, traceable or repairable WHEN they fail. This model you see probably isn't even functional.  Typical Musk smoke and mirrors. All you believers, step right up and make your cash deposits.

    2.1 Kw Suntech 175 mono, Classic 200, Trace SW 4024 ( 15 years old  but brand new out of sealed factory box Jan. 2015), Bogart Tri-metric, 700 ah @24 volt AGM battery bank. Plenty of Baja Sea of Cortez sunshine.

  • littleharbor2littleharbor2 Solar Expert Posts: 704 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 4 #43
    Here's what Consumer reports has to say about the pricing. Taken with a grain of salt being that Consumer reports doesn't know all the issues involved with PV in general or the connectivity issues in particular with this type of solar tiles.
     The Fuzzy math used by Tesla includes the potential electrical offset will be over the (expected) life of the roof. This projected offset is subtracted from the initial cost which as shown is $70,000 - $100.000.  So as I said, Step right up, believers.

     BTW the price of a conventional grid tied  solar system when calculated along with its projected 25 year offset would be negative, 2 to 3 times, or better, its initial cost.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/roofing/heres-how-much-teslas-new-solar-roof-shingles-could-cost/

    2.1 Kw Suntech 175 mono, Classic 200, Trace SW 4024 ( 15 years old  but brand new out of sealed factory box Jan. 2015), Bogart Tri-metric, 700 ah @24 volt AGM battery bank. Plenty of Baja Sea of Cortez sunshine.

  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 1,616 ✭✭✭✭
    One cost missing from CRs numbers is insurance. I gotta wonder how my carrier would underwrite $100,000 worth of glass roof that could be one hailstorm away from destruction.
    Off-grid.  
    Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
    Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
  • SolraySolray Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭
    edited August 4 #45
    The same way they do with any roof. Any roof can be destroyed by a storm. I have seen it happen a lot of times. Same for cars, siding, trees, and windows. All are 1 storm from destruction. It averages out because the odds favor it not being destroyed. ;) The solar tiles are tougher than normal tiles and you may get a discount.
    https://i1.wp.com/electrek.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/screenshot-2016-10-28-20-58-12.png?w=996&h=404&crop&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1
  • SolraySolray Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭
    > @littleharbor2 said:
    > Heavily manipulated numbers. This roof cost WAY more than a conventional roof with an equivalent KW typical array. We still don't know how they are going to make the thousands of electrical connections reliable, traceable or repairable WHEN they fail. This model you see probably isn't even functional.  Typical Musk smoke and mirrors. All you believers, step right up and make your cash deposits.

    I don't think space x Landing rockets on their tails, the Tesla Model 3, the Tesla Model S or the power wall were smoke and mirrors. I don't know what you think smoke and mirrors means unless it means providing good products that people want to buy and people do buy.
  • SolraySolray Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭
    > @littleharbor2 said:
    > Here's what Consumer reports has to say about the pricing. Taken with a grain of salt being that Consumer reports doesn't know all the issues involved with PV in general or the connectivity issues in particular with this type of solar tiles.
    >  The Fuzzy math used by Tesla includes the potential electrical offset will be over the (expected) life of the roof. This projected offset is subtracted from the initial cost which as shown is $70,000 - $100.000.  So as I said, Step right up, believers.
    >
    >  BTW the price of a conventional grid tied  solar system when calculated along with its projected 25 year offset would be negative, 2 to 3 times, or better, its initial cost.
    >
    > https://www.consumerreports.org/roofing/heres-how-much-teslas-new-solar-roof-shingles-could-cost/

    The consumer reports numbers are assuming there won't be any rate increases in electricity in the next 30 Years and I don't think that's going to be the case. They are also assuming $2,000 per year for electricity which seems rather low in a lot of places, especially the places that have the most sun and the highest temperatures the insulation alone will give them benefit.
    You'll also notice the consumer reports article is titled what they 'could' cost not what they will cost it's all hypothesis and none of its proven yet.
  • SolraySolray Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭
    One other quick point I have never paid any deposit for anything from Tesla that was not delivered as promised and when promised I can't say the same for other companies.
  • EstragonEstragon Registered Users Posts: 1,616 ✭✭✭✭
    There's a link in the CR article updating with actual pricing from Tesla, which was a bit lower that the original estimate. It priced out 3 example houses in Texas, CA, and NY.
    Off-grid.  
    Main daytime system ~4kw panels into 2xMNClassic150 370ah 48v bank 2xOutback 3548 inverter 120v + 240v autotransformer
    Night system ~1kw panels into 1xMNClassic150 700ah 12v bank morningstar 300w inverter
  • SolraySolray Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭

    6 months ago on CNNtech:


    To some, solar roofs are an ingenuous way to kill two birds with one shingle. Installation costs should fall. Rather than pay someone to install your roof, and someone else to install solar panels, the tasks can be combined.

    "Definitely this is an innovation," said Shashank Priya, a Virginia Tech professor researches energy harvesting.

    Of course, if you already have a suitable roof this won't benefit you. But if your roof is aging and you're interested in solar panels, it is a perk.

    "You're potentially putting solar panels over a roof system that's seen its better days," said Dean Jagusch, the president of the Mid Atlantic Roofing Contractors Association. "By installing a completely integrated roof product that not only weather proofs the building but produces electricity, it's a very smart way to go."

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